Preseason Rankings
Duke
Atlantic Coast
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+19.6#3
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace80.3#14
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+10.4#4
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+9.2#8
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 7.1% 10.0% 4.2%
#1 Seed 26.8% 35.4% 18.3%
Top 2 Seed 47.0% 58.9% 35.2%
Top 4 Seed 70.9% 81.3% 60.5%
Top 6 Seed 83.1% 90.8% 75.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 95.7% 98.4% 93.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 94.2% 97.7% 91.2%
Average Seed 3.4 2.8 4.0
.500 or above 99.3% 99.8% 98.8%
.500 or above in Conference 96.8% 98.3% 95.3%
Conference Champion 36.0% 41.7% 30.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four1.2% 0.5% 2.0%
First Round95.1% 98.2% 92.1%
Second Round84.1% 90.3% 77.9%
Sweet Sixteen60.4% 67.9% 52.9%
Elite Eight38.8% 45.8% 31.9%
Final Four23.2% 28.5% 18.0%
Championship Game14.0% 17.6% 10.3%
National Champion7.8% 10.4% 5.3%

Next Game: Kansas (Neutral) - 50.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 44 - 4
Quad 1b4 - 18 - 6
Quad 26 - 114 - 6
Quad 36 - 020 - 7
Quad 45 - 026 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 4   Kansas W 83-82 50%    
  Nov 08, 2019 179   Colorado St. W 91-67 99%    
  Nov 12, 2019 284   Central Arkansas W 98-69 99.6%   
  Nov 15, 2019 162   Georgia St. W 92-69 98%    
  Nov 21, 2019 166   California W 86-66 96%    
  Nov 26, 2019 290   Stephen F. Austin W 92-62 99.7%   
  Nov 29, 2019 218   Winthrop W 98-72 99%    
  Dec 03, 2019 1   @ Michigan St. L 77-82 32%    
  Dec 06, 2019 85   @ Virginia Tech W 77-67 81%    
  Dec 19, 2019 107   Wofford W 87-68 95%    
  Dec 28, 2019 171   Brown W 92-69 97%    
  Dec 31, 2019 101   Boston College W 86-68 94%    
  Jan 04, 2020 63   @ Miami (FL) W 81-73 75%    
  Jan 08, 2020 75   @ Georgia Tech W 80-70 79%    
  Jan 11, 2020 91   Wake Forest W 87-70 93%    
  Jan 14, 2020 81   @ Clemson W 78-68 81%    
  Jan 18, 2020 6   Louisville W 80-76 63%    
  Jan 21, 2020 63   Miami (FL) W 84-70 88%    
  Jan 28, 2020 72   Pittsburgh W 84-69 90%    
  Feb 01, 2020 59   @ Syracuse W 78-70 74%    
  Feb 04, 2020 101   @ Boston College W 83-71 85%    
  Feb 08, 2020 5   @ North Carolina L 88-90 42%    
  Feb 10, 2020 18   Florida St. W 83-74 78%    
  Feb 15, 2020 41   Notre Dame W 81-69 83%    
  Feb 19, 2020 22   @ North Carolina St. W 87-83 62%    
  Feb 22, 2020 85   Virginia Tech W 80-64 91%    
  Feb 25, 2020 91   @ Wake Forest W 84-73 82%    
  Feb 29, 2020 10   @ Virginia L 65-66 50%    
  Mar 02, 2020 22   North Carolina St. W 90-80 79%    
  Mar 07, 2020 5   North Carolina W 91-87 62%    
Projected Record 24 - 6 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.9 4.2 8.6 10.4 8.2 3.4 36.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.6 5.2 7.4 5.2 1.5 0.1 21.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.6 4.7 5.1 2.7 0.4 0.0 14.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 3.7 3.6 1.3 0.2 0.0 10.1 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 2.3 2.4 0.8 0.0 6.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 1.5 1.5 0.6 0.0 4.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.2 0.4 0.0 2.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.5 2.6 4.3 5.7 8.5 10.9 12.6 14.4 14.2 12.0 8.3 3.4 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 3.4    3.4
19-1 98.7% 8.2    7.4 0.7
18-2 87.0% 10.4    7.8 2.4 0.2
17-3 60.6% 8.6    4.8 3.3 0.5 0.0
16-4 29.1% 4.2    1.6 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.0
15-5 7.4% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 2.0% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 36.0% 36.0 25.3 8.7 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 3.4% 100.0% 61.5% 38.5% 1.1 3.0 0.5 0.0 100.0%
19-1 8.3% 100.0% 51.4% 48.6% 1.2 6.6 1.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 12.0% 100.0% 42.3% 57.7% 1.4 7.6 3.7 0.6 0.1 100.0%
17-3 14.2% 100.0% 32.1% 67.9% 1.8 5.7 5.7 2.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 14.4% 100.0% 25.4% 74.6% 2.4 3.0 5.1 4.0 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 12.6% 100.0% 19.4% 80.6% 3.3 0.8 2.8 3.8 3.1 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 10.9% 99.8% 14.2% 85.6% 4.5 0.2 0.8 2.1 3.0 2.3 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
13-7 8.5% 99.2% 8.2% 91.0% 5.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.8 1.7 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.1%
12-8 5.7% 96.5% 5.8% 90.7% 7.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 96.3%
11-9 4.3% 85.6% 4.9% 80.8% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.6 84.9%
10-10 2.6% 65.7% 3.8% 61.9% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 64.4%
9-11 1.5% 35.0% 1.3% 33.7% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.0 34.2%
8-12 0.9% 14.0% 0.9% 13.1% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 13.2%
7-13 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 10.0 0.0 0.4 0.1%
6-14 0.2% 0.2
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 95.7% 25.0% 70.7% 3.4 26.8 20.2 13.7 10.1 7.0 5.2 4.1 3.0 2.1 1.6 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 4.3 94.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 1.1 88.8 11.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 1.1 93.3 6.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 1.0 97.6 2.4