Preseason Rankings
Fresno St.
Mountain West
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.2#118
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.2#164
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.2#166
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.0#90
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.7% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 0.4% 1.4% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.8% 18.6% 7.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.2% 7.7% 1.6%
Average Seed 11.6 10.5 11.9
.500 or above 69.1% 89.5% 66.7%
.500 or above in Conference 68.7% 82.8% 67.1%
Conference Champion 7.3% 13.2% 6.6%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 0.5% 1.5%
First Four1.2% 3.7% 0.9%
First Round8.1% 16.4% 7.1%
Second Round2.2% 5.9% 1.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 2.2% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.7% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oregon (Away) - 10.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 21 - 4
Quad 22 - 32 - 7
Quad 35 - 47 - 11
Quad 49 - 216 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 16   @ Oregon L 59-72 11%    
  Nov 10, 2019 218   Winthrop W 81-72 80%    
  Nov 20, 2019 19   St. Mary's L 61-71 19%    
  Nov 30, 2019 208   @ Cal St. Northridge W 78-75 61%    
  Dec 04, 2019 146   UNLV W 74-69 68%    
  Dec 07, 2019 34   @ Utah St. L 66-77 16%    
  Dec 11, 2019 166   @ California W 70-69 51%    
  Dec 14, 2019 327   @ Cal Poly W 75-64 82%    
  Dec 20, 2019 253   IUPUI W 77-66 84%    
  Dec 23, 2019 111   San Francisco W 72-69 58%    
  Dec 28, 2019 296   UC Riverside W 72-58 88%    
  Jan 01, 2020 77   @ San Diego St. L 65-72 29%    
  Jan 04, 2020 330   San Jose St. W 81-64 93%    
  Jan 07, 2020 92   @ New Mexico L 76-81 35%    
  Jan 14, 2020 77   San Diego St. L 68-69 48%    
  Jan 18, 2020 275   @ Wyoming W 73-66 71%    
  Jan 22, 2020 179   @ Colorado St. W 72-70 55%    
  Jan 25, 2020 90   Boise St. W 70-69 52%    
  Jan 28, 2020 170   @ Air Force W 70-69 52%    
  Feb 01, 2020 92   New Mexico W 79-78 54%    
  Feb 04, 2020 179   Colorado St. W 75-67 74%    
  Feb 08, 2020 146   @ UNLV L 71-72 47%    
  Feb 12, 2020 330   @ San Jose St. W 78-67 82%    
  Feb 15, 2020 34   Utah St. L 69-74 33%    
  Feb 19, 2020 170   Air Force W 73-66 71%    
  Feb 22, 2020 95   @ Nevada L 71-75 36%    
  Feb 29, 2020 275   Wyoming W 76-63 85%    
Projected Record 15 - 12 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 1.7 2.4 1.7 0.7 0.2 7.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.8 3.5 1.5 0.2 0.0 11.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.7 5.2 4.0 1.1 0.1 13.5 3rd
4th 0.1 0.6 3.2 5.5 3.4 0.7 0.0 13.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.6 5.6 3.2 0.4 0.0 13.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.4 5.1 2.7 0.3 0.0 12.4 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 3.2 4.5 2.0 0.3 0.0 11.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 2.7 3.2 1.5 0.2 0.0 8.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.0 1.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 6.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.7 5.7 8.1 10.3 11.5 12.2 12.0 10.8 9.1 6.3 4.0 1.9 0.7 0.2 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 99.9% 0.7    0.6 0.0
16-2 88.5% 1.7    1.3 0.4 0.0
15-3 60.0% 2.4    1.2 1.0 0.1 0.0
14-4 26.8% 1.7    0.6 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
13-5 6.4% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.3% 7.3 4.0 2.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 92.6% 64.1% 28.5% 5.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 79.3%
17-1 0.7% 77.0% 39.4% 37.6% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 62.1%
16-2 1.9% 60.1% 30.7% 29.4% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.8 42.4%
15-3 4.0% 37.7% 21.2% 16.5% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.5 21.0%
14-4 6.3% 22.1% 17.3% 4.7% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 4.9 5.7%
13-5 9.1% 14.9% 13.0% 1.9% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 7.8 2.1%
12-6 10.8% 9.9% 9.5% 0.3% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 9.7 0.4%
11-7 12.0% 6.1% 6.1% 0.0% 13.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 11.3 0.0%
10-8 12.2% 3.4% 3.4% 0.1% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 11.8 0.1%
9-9 11.5% 1.8% 1.8% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 11.3
8-10 10.3% 1.1% 1.1% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.1
7-11 8.1% 0.9% 0.9% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.0
6-12 5.7% 0.5% 0.5% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.7
5-13 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 3.7
4-14 2.0% 2.0
3-15 1.0% 1.0
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 8.8% 6.7% 2.1% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.5 2.7 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.1 91.2 2.2%