IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Oregon
Pac-12
2019-20

Overall
Predictive Rating	+13.7	#16
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	62.8	#326
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+5.5	#46

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+8.3	#11

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.9%	1.0%	0.2%
#1 Seed	5.4%	5.9%	1.0%
Top 2 Seed	12.4%	13.4%	3.4%
Top 4 Seed	27.4%	29.3%	10.8%
Top 6 Seed	41.1%	43.6%	20.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	76.5%	78.8%	57.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	68.5%	71.2%	48.9%
Average Seed	6.2	6.0	7.6

.500 or above	95.7%	96.8%	86.6%
.500 or above in Conference	91.9%	92.9%	84.0%
Conference Champion	34.8%	36.4%	21.6%
Last Place in Conference	0.4%	0.3%	1.0%

First Four	5.3%	5.1%	7.1%
First Round	73.9%	76.3%	53.2%
Second Round	50.8%	53.1%	30.6%
Sweet Sixteen	26.1%	27.7%	12.5%
Elite Eight	12.8%	13.7%	5.4%
Final Four	6.0%	6.4%	1.9%
Championship Game	2.6%	2.9%	0.5%
National Champion	1.1%	1.2%	0.2%

Next Game: Fresno St. (Home) - 89.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	1 - 3	1 - 3
Quad 1b	3 - 2	4 - 5
Quad 2	6 - 2	10 - 7
Quad 3	8 - 1	18 - 8
Quad 4	6 - 0	23 - 8

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 05, 2019	118	Fresno St.	W	72-59	89%
Nov 09, 2019	90	Boise St.	W	71-60	86%
Nov 12, 2019	26	Memphis	W	75-74	54%
Nov 17, 2019	135	Texas Arlington	W	72-57	91%
Nov 22, 2019	32	Houston	W	67-62	66%
Nov 27, 2019	17	Seton Hall	W	69-68	50%
Dec 07, 2019	183	Hawaii	W	75-56	95%
Dec 14, 2019	21	@ Michigan	L	62-64	44%
Dec 18, 2019	198	Montana	W	76-57	95%
Dec 21, 2019	265	Texas Southern	W	87-64	97%
Dec 29, 2019	332	Alabama St.	W	80-52	99%
Jan 02, 2020	40	@ Colorado	L	66-67	49%
Jan 04, 2020	110	@ Utah	W	71-64	72%
Jan 09, 2020	31	Arizona	W	69-64	65%
Jan 11, 2020	65	Arizona St.	W	76-67	76%
Jan 16, 2020	157	@ Washington St.	W	77-66	81%
Jan 18, 2020	44	@ Washington	W	65-64	52%
Jan 23, 2020	64	USC	W	74-66	76%
Jan 26, 2020	82	UCLA	W	78-68	81%
Jan 30, 2020	166	@ California	W	71-60	82%
Feb 01, 2020	113	@ Stanford	W	71-64	72%
Feb 08, 2020	74	@ Oregon St.	W	68-64	62%
Feb 13, 2020	40	Colorado	W	69-63	68%
Feb 16, 2020	110	Utah	W	74-61	86%
Feb 20, 2020	65	@ Arizona St.	W	73-70	59%
Feb 22, 2020	31	@ Arizona	L	66-67	45%
Feb 27, 2020	74	Oregon St.	W	71-61	79%
Mar 05, 2020	166	California	W	74-57	92%
Mar 07, 2020	113	Stanford	W	74-61	86%
Projected Record						21 - 8	13 - 5

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Pac-12 Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.3	2.1	5.7	9.3	9.1	6.0	2.3		34.8	1st
2nd											0.0	0.4	2.5	6.2	6.8	3.5	0.8	0.0			20.2	2nd
3rd											0.3	2.4	5.2	4.3	1.4	0.1					13.7	3rd
4th									0.0	0.2	1.8	4.1	3.1	0.7	0.0	0.0					10.0	4th
5th								0.0	0.1	1.1	3.3	2.2	0.3	0.0							7.1	5th
6th							0.0	0.1	0.7	2.3	1.7	0.3	0.0								5.1	6th
7th							0.0	0.4	1.5	1.3	0.2	0.0									3.5	7th
8th						0.0	0.2	1.1	1.0	0.3	0.0										2.6	8th
9th					0.0	0.1	0.5	0.6	0.2	0.0											1.4	9th
10th			0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.2	0.0												0.9	10th
11th			0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0													0.5	11th
12th		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0															0.2	12th

Total		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.6	1.2	2.3	3.5	5.3	7.3	9.4	11.4	13.4	13.9	12.9	10.0	6.0	2.3			Total

Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	2.3		2.3
17-1	100.0%	6.0		5.7	0.3
16-2	91.9%	9.1		7.5	1.6	0.0
15-3	71.9%	9.3		5.8	3.1	0.3
14-4	41.1%	5.7		2.4	2.5	0.7	0.1	0.0
13-5	15.8%	2.1		0.4	0.9	0.7	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-6	2.4%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0
11-7	0.0%	0.0				0.0				0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	34.8%	34.8		24.2	8.4	1.9	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	2.3%		100.0%	63.7%	36.3%	1.5		1.4	0.7	0.2	0.0		0.0													100.0%
17-1	6.0%		100.0%	54.3%	45.7%	2.1		2.3	1.9	1.1	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0									0.0		100.0%
16-2	10.0%		99.8%	46.0%	53.8%	3.2		1.2	2.7	2.2	1.9	1.0	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0						0.0		99.6%
15-3	12.9%		99.5%	36.5%	63.0%	4.5		0.4	1.4	2.3	2.9	2.3	1.4	1.0	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.0					0.1		99.2%
14-4	13.9%		97.8%	28.6%	69.2%	6.3		0.1	0.3	1.0	1.9	2.1	2.3	2.1	1.6	1.1	0.7	0.4	0.1					0.3		96.9%
13-5	13.4%		91.4%	23.3%	68.1%	7.7		0.0	0.0	0.2	0.7	1.2	1.5	2.1	2.0	1.9	1.4	1.0	0.2	0.0				1.1		88.8%
12-6	11.4%		78.1%	17.0%	61.1%	8.9				0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	1.0	1.5	1.7	1.8	1.5	0.4	0.0				2.5		73.6%
11-7	9.4%		63.1%	12.1%	51.0%	9.7					0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.6	1.1	1.5	1.6	0.6	0.0				3.5		58.0%
10-8	7.3%		41.5%	9.0%	32.5%	10.3						0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.7	1.2	0.4	0.0				4.3		35.7%
9-9	5.3%		22.9%	4.6%	18.4%	10.7						0.0		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.3	0.0				4.1		19.2%
8-10	3.5%		9.1%	3.1%	6.0%	11.1									0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0				3.1		6.2%
7-11	2.3%		3.6%	2.1%	1.5%	11.5										0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0				2.2		1.5%
6-12	1.2%		1.5%	1.5%		11.3												0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0		1.2
5-13	0.6%		2.4%	2.4%		12.5												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.6
4-14	0.3%																							0.3
3-15	0.1%																							0.1
2-16	0.1%																							0.1
1-17	0.0%																							0.0
0-18

Total	100%		76.5%	25.3%	51.2%	6.2		5.4	7.0	7.0	8.0	7.2	6.5	6.9	6.5	6.8	6.6	6.4	2.1	0.1	0.0	0.0		23.5		68.5%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.5%	100.0%	1.3	72.8	25.7	1.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.1%	100.0%	1.2	82.3	17.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	100.0%	1.1	93.3	5.6	1.1