Preseason Rankings
Gonzaga
West Coast
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+17.1#8
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace75.1#50
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+10.1#5
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+7.0#23
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.8% 1.9% 0.0%
#1 Seed 11.0% 11.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 22.9% 22.9% 5.8%
Top 4 Seed 43.1% 43.2% 12.0%
Top 6 Seed 57.1% 57.1% 17.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 88.1% 88.2% 75.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 75.2% 75.3% 64.8%
Average Seed 5.3 5.3 8.3
.500 or above 99.9% 99.9% 99.6%
.500 or above in Conference 99.4% 99.4% 98.9%
Conference Champion 64.4% 64.5% 32.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four4.1% 4.1% 16.4%
First Round86.5% 86.5% 74.8%
Second Round67.4% 67.4% 41.6%
Sweet Sixteen41.3% 41.4% 2.6%
Elite Eight24.0% 24.0% 0.7%
Final Four12.7% 12.8% 0.0%
Championship Game6.6% 6.6% 0.0%
National Champion3.4% 3.4% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama St. (Home) - 99.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 13 - 3
Quad 24 - 18 - 4
Quad 38 - 116 - 5
Quad 411 - 027 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 332   Alabama St. W 91-60 99.9%   
  Nov 09, 2019 343   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 89-55 99.9%   
  Nov 12, 2019 262   North Dakota W 92-66 99%    
  Nov 15, 2019 61   @ Texas A&M W 79-74 68%    
  Nov 19, 2019 135   Texas Arlington W 83-65 95%    
  Nov 23, 2019 197   Cal St. Bakersfield W 84-62 97%    
  Nov 27, 2019 238   Southern Miss W 83-62 97%    
  Dec 04, 2019 265   Texas Southern W 100-74 99%    
  Dec 08, 2019 44   @ Washington W 76-72 63%    
  Dec 14, 2019 31   @ Arizona W 77-75 57%    
  Dec 18, 2019 5   North Carolina W 88-87 54%    
  Dec 21, 2019 192   Eastern Washington W 88-66 97%    
  Dec 30, 2019 219   Detroit Mercy W 94-71 98%    
  Jan 02, 2020 285   @ Portland W 86-65 96%    
  Jan 04, 2020 117   Pepperdine W 90-73 92%    
  Jan 09, 2020 164   @ San Diego W 80-66 88%    
  Jan 11, 2020 149   @ Loyola Marymount W 76-63 87%    
  Jan 16, 2020 128   Santa Clara W 83-65 94%    
  Jan 18, 2020 67   BYU W 89-77 84%    
  Jan 25, 2020 247   Pacific W 84-59 98%    
  Jan 30, 2020 128   @ Santa Clara W 80-68 85%    
  Feb 01, 2020 111   @ San Francisco W 81-71 80%    
  Feb 06, 2020 149   Loyola Marymount W 79-60 94%    
  Feb 08, 2020 19   @ St. Mary's W 72-71 52%    
  Feb 15, 2020 117   @ Pepperdine W 87-76 81%    
  Feb 20, 2020 111   San Francisco W 84-68 91%    
  Feb 22, 2020 67   @ BYU W 86-80 69%    
  Feb 27, 2020 164   San Diego W 83-63 95%    
  Feb 29, 2020 19   St. Mary's W 75-68 71%    
Projected Record 25 - 4 14 - 2




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.9 8.3 17.8 21.5 14.6 64.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.7 7.0 8.2 4.3 22.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.3 2.0 0.4 7.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.4 0.6 0.0 2.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.8 3.8 6.8 10.9 17.0 22.1 21.5 14.6 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 14.6    14.6
15-1 100.0% 21.5    19.6 1.9
14-2 80.6% 17.8    12.6 5.1 0.1
13-3 48.9% 8.3    3.8 3.8 0.7 0.0
12-4 17.8% 1.9    0.5 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-5 3.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 64.4% 64.4 51.1 11.9 1.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 14.6% 99.8% 78.0% 21.9% 1.9 6.5 4.8 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.3%
15-1 21.5% 99.6% 67.6% 32.0% 3.1 4.0 5.3 4.4 3.8 1.8 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.7%
14-2 22.1% 97.1% 53.9% 43.3% 5.3 0.6 1.6 2.9 4.2 3.6 2.7 2.0 1.5 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.6 93.8%
13-3 17.0% 91.8% 43.9% 48.0% 7.4 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.7 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.7 1.4 0.4 0.0 1.4 85.5%
12-4 10.9% 79.1% 34.5% 44.6% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.5 1.8 1.8 0.7 0.0 0.0 2.3 68.0%
11-5 6.8% 62.8% 28.4% 34.4% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.4 0.7 0.0 2.5 48.0%
10-6 3.8% 41.4% 19.8% 21.6% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.2 27.0%
9-7 1.8% 23.0% 13.6% 9.4% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.3 10.9%
8-8 0.9% 13.7% 9.0% 4.7% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 5.1%
7-9 0.3% 5.3% 2.7% 2.7% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.7%
6-10 0.1% 10.7% 10.7% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
5-11 0.1% 0.1
4-12 0.0% 0.0
3-13 0.0% 0.0
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 88.1% 52.1% 36.0% 5.3 11.0 11.9 9.9 10.3 7.6 6.3 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.6 6.0 2.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 11.9 75.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.7% 100.0% 1.4 64.0 30.5 5.3 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6% 100.0% 1.6 54.7 34.0 10.0 1.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 1.7 47.5 38.5 10.4 3.3 0.2