IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Washington
Pac-12
2019-20

Overall
Predictive Rating	+10.4	#44
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	65.7	#266
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+4.3	#68

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+6.1	#31

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.2%	0.5%	0.1%
#1 Seed	1.3%	2.6%	0.6%
Top 2 Seed	3.2%	6.4%	1.6%
Top 4 Seed	9.3%	16.8%	5.6%
Top 6 Seed	17.2%	28.8%	11.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid	49.9%	66.3%	41.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	42.5%	59.1%	34.9%
Average Seed	7.7	7.0	8.2

.500 or above	88.4%	96.3%	84.5%
.500 or above in Conference	79.8%	87.7%	75.9%
Conference Champion	17.5%	24.3%	14.1%
Last Place in Conference	1.5%	0.8%	1.9%

First Four	7.2%	7.3%	7.2%
First Round	46.3%	62.6%	38.1%
Second Round	27.3%	39.3%	21.3%
Sweet Sixteen	11.4%	17.5%	8.3%
Elite Eight	4.7%	7.4%	3.3%
Final Four	1.8%	2.9%	1.3%
Championship Game	0.8%	1.2%	0.6%
National Champion	0.3%	0.4%	0.2%

Next Game: Baylor (Neutral) - 33.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	1 - 3	1 - 3
Quad 1b	2 - 2	3 - 5
Quad 2	5 - 3	7 - 8
Quad 3	7 - 2	14 - 10
Quad 4	7 - 0	21 - 10

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 08, 2019	15	Baylor	L	66-70	33%
Nov 12, 2019	287	Mount St. Mary's	W	78-58	97%
Nov 16, 2019	30	Tennessee	L	69-71	43%
Nov 19, 2019	333	Maine	W	77-52	99%
Nov 22, 2019	198	Montana	W	76-60	92%
Nov 24, 2019	164	San Diego	W	73-60	88%
Dec 02, 2019	165	South Dakota	W	75-61	88%
Dec 04, 2019	192	Eastern Washington	W	77-62	91%
Dec 08, 2019	8	Gonzaga	L	72-76	37%
Dec 17, 2019	168	Seattle	W	75-61	88%
Dec 22, 2019	120	Ball St.	W	74-67	73%
Jan 02, 2020	82	UCLA	W	79-72	73%
Jan 05, 2020	64	USC	W	75-70	66%
Jan 09, 2020	113	@ Stanford	W	72-68	63%
Jan 11, 2020	166	@ California	W	72-64	74%
Jan 16, 2020	74	Oregon St.	W	71-65	71%
Jan 18, 2020	16	Oregon	L	64-65	48%
Jan 23, 2020	110	@ Utah	W	72-68	62%
Jan 25, 2020	40	@ Colorado	L	66-70	38%
Jan 30, 2020	31	Arizona	W	69-68	54%
Feb 01, 2020	65	Arizona St.	W	76-71	66%
Feb 09, 2020	157	@ Washington St.	W	77-70	72%
Feb 13, 2020	64	@ USC	L	72-73	47%
Feb 15, 2020	82	@ UCLA	W	76-75	53%
Feb 20, 2020	113	Stanford	W	75-65	79%
Feb 22, 2020	166	California	W	75-61	86%
Feb 28, 2020	157	Washington St.	W	80-67	85%
Mar 05, 2020	65	@ Arizona St.	L	73-74	48%
Mar 07, 2020	31	@ Arizona	L	66-71	35%
Projected Record						20 - 9	11 - 7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Pac-12 Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.2	1.3	3.3	5.2	4.3	2.4	0.6		17.5	1st
2nd											0.0	0.3	2.5	5.6	4.9	2.3	0.6	0.0			16.3	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.4	3.0	5.7	4.0	1.2	0.1	0.0				14.4	3rd
4th									0.0	0.3	2.5	5.0	3.2	0.6	0.0						11.7	4th
5th								0.0	0.2	2.2	4.5	2.7	0.5	0.0							10.1	5th
6th								0.1	1.4	3.8	2.6	0.4	0.0								8.3	6th
7th						0.0	0.1	1.1	3.1	2.4	0.5	0.0									7.2	7th
8th						0.0	0.7	2.3	1.8	0.5	0.0										5.2	8th
9th					0.0	0.5	1.4	1.5	0.3	0.0											3.8	9th
10th			0.0	0.0	0.4	1.1	1.1	0.3	0.0												3.0	10th
11th			0.1	0.3	0.6	0.6	0.2	0.0													1.8	11th
12th	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0														0.8	12th

Total	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.6	1.2	2.3	3.4	5.2	7.0	9.1	10.5	11.4	12.1	11.6	9.5	7.6	4.9	2.5	0.6			Total

Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.6		0.6
17-1	99.3%	2.4		2.2	0.2
16-2	88.1%	4.3		3.3	1.0	0.0
15-3	68.4%	5.2		3.1	1.9	0.2
14-4	35.1%	3.3		1.2	1.5	0.5	0.1
13-5	11.2%	1.3		0.2	0.5	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-6	1.7%	0.2		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0
11-7	0.1%	0.0						0.0		0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	17.5%	17.5		10.8	5.1	1.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.6%		100.0%	55.3%	44.7%	1.9		0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0													100.0%
17-1	2.5%		100.0%	44.7%	55.3%	2.7		0.6	0.7	0.6	0.4	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0								100.0%
16-2	4.9%		99.7%	33.5%	66.2%	4.2		0.4	0.7	1.0	1.1	0.6	0.6	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0					0.0		99.5%
15-3	7.6%		98.0%	27.9%	70.1%	5.7		0.1	0.3	0.7	1.2	1.6	1.1	1.1	0.6	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0				0.2		97.2%
14-4	9.5%		92.4%	23.6%	68.8%	7.4		0.0	0.1	0.2	0.7	0.9	1.3	1.3	1.3	1.3	0.9	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.0			0.7		90.0%
13-5	11.6%		81.6%	18.9%	62.7%	8.7			0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.7	1.2	1.4	1.9	1.7	1.4	0.4	0.0				2.1		77.3%
12-6	12.1%		61.8%	10.2%	51.5%	9.8			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.8	1.3	1.8	2.2	0.7	0.0				4.6		57.4%
11-7	11.4%		43.7%	9.3%	34.5%	10.3			0.0			0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.6	1.1	1.8	0.8	0.1				6.4		38.0%
10-8	10.5%		24.4%	4.8%	19.7%	10.7							0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	1.2	0.6	0.0	0.0			7.9		20.6%
9-9	9.1%		9.3%	2.6%	6.6%	11.1									0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.3	0.0				8.3		6.8%
8-10	7.0%		3.1%	1.3%	1.8%	11.3									0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0			6.8		1.9%
7-11	5.2%		1.5%	1.5%	0.1%	12.0												0.0	0.0	0.0				5.2		0.1%
6-12	3.4%		0.2%	0.2%		12.5												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		3.4
5-13	2.3%		0.3%	0.3%		12.0													0.0					2.3
4-14	1.2%		0.0%	0.0%		13.0														0.0				1.2
3-15	0.6%		0.1%	0.1%		14.0															0.0			0.6
2-16	0.3%																							0.3
1-17	0.0%																							0.0
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		49.9%	12.9%	37.0%	7.7		1.3	1.9	2.6	3.5	3.8	4.1	4.5	4.7	6.0	6.3	7.9	3.1	0.1	0.0	0.0		50.1		42.5%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.1%	100.0%	1.5	60.2	33.6	6.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	100.0%	1.1	89.7	7.7	2.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	100.0%	1.9	36.7	32.7	30.6