Preseason Rankings
Arizona
Pac-12
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+12.1#31
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.3#218
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.5#30
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.5#40
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
#1 Seed 3.2% 3.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 7.5% 7.6% 0.5%
Top 4 Seed 17.8% 18.1% 2.9%
Top 6 Seed 28.9% 29.4% 7.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 65.0% 65.7% 33.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 57.4% 58.1% 26.1%
Average Seed 6.9 6.8 8.6
.500 or above 91.6% 92.1% 68.6%
.500 or above in Conference 84.5% 85.0% 64.9%
Conference Champion 23.2% 23.6% 8.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.8% 4.2%
First Four6.5% 6.5% 4.0%
First Round61.8% 62.5% 31.5%
Second Round39.4% 39.9% 13.4%
Sweet Sixteen18.3% 18.6% 4.4%
Elite Eight8.5% 8.7% 1.9%
Final Four3.7% 3.8% 1.1%
Championship Game1.6% 1.7% 0.0%
National Champion0.6% 0.7% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Arizona (Home) - 97.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b2 - 23 - 5
Quad 26 - 39 - 8
Quad 37 - 116 - 9
Quad 46 - 022 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2019 278   Northern Arizona W 84-62 98%    
  Nov 10, 2019 42   Illinois W 78-74 65%    
  Nov 14, 2019 330   San Jose St. W 86-60 99%    
  Nov 17, 2019 55   New Mexico St. W 73-68 69%    
  Nov 21, 2019 224   South Dakota St. W 86-67 95%    
  Nov 24, 2019 289   Long Beach St. W 87-65 97%    
  Nov 28, 2019 117   Pepperdine W 81-72 78%    
  Dec 07, 2019 15   @ Baylor L 67-73 31%    
  Dec 11, 2019 195   Nebraska Omaha W 83-66 93%    
  Dec 14, 2019 8   Gonzaga L 75-77 43%    
  Dec 21, 2019 93   St. John's W 78-71 74%    
  Jan 04, 2020 65   Arizona St. W 80-73 72%    
  Jan 09, 2020 16   @ Oregon L 64-69 35%    
  Jan 12, 2020 74   @ Oregon St. W 71-69 57%    
  Jan 16, 2020 110   Utah W 77-66 83%    
  Jan 18, 2020 40   Colorado W 73-69 63%    
  Jan 25, 2020 65   @ Arizona St. W 77-76 53%    
  Jan 30, 2020 44   @ Washington L 68-69 46%    
  Feb 01, 2020 157   @ Washington St. W 80-71 77%    
  Feb 06, 2020 64   USC W 78-71 71%    
  Feb 08, 2020 82   UCLA W 83-74 76%    
  Feb 13, 2020 166   @ California W 75-66 78%    
  Feb 15, 2020 113   @ Stanford W 75-70 67%    
  Feb 20, 2020 74   Oregon St. W 74-66 76%    
  Feb 22, 2020 16   Oregon W 67-66 55%    
  Feb 27, 2020 64   @ USC W 75-74 52%    
  Feb 29, 2020 82   @ UCLA W 80-77 59%    
  Mar 05, 2020 157   Washington St. W 83-68 89%    
  Mar 07, 2020 44   Washington W 71-66 65%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.5 4.2 6.3 6.2 3.7 1.1 23.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.7 5.9 5.6 2.4 0.5 0.0 17.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.8 5.5 4.0 1.3 0.1 14.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.7 4.8 3.5 0.7 0.0 12.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.2 2.5 0.5 0.0 9.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.4 3.5 2.3 0.4 0.0 7.9 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 2.6 1.9 0.3 0.0 5.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 1.8 1.6 0.3 0.0 4.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 2.4 4.0 6.0 7.9 9.9 10.9 12.4 12.2 11.1 8.8 6.6 3.7 1.1 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.1    1.1
17-1 100.0% 3.7    3.5 0.2
16-2 92.9% 6.2    5.1 1.0 0.0
15-3 71.5% 6.3    3.9 2.2 0.2 0.0
14-4 37.6% 4.2    1.8 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-5 12.7% 1.5    0.2 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 23.2% 23.2 15.6 5.9 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.1% 100.0% 60.6% 39.4% 1.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 3.7% 100.0% 51.8% 48.2% 2.2 1.3 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 6.6% 99.9% 43.8% 56.1% 3.2 1.0 1.5 1.4 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
15-3 8.8% 99.5% 35.8% 63.7% 4.5 0.3 0.9 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.2%
14-4 11.1% 97.7% 25.3% 72.3% 6.3 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.3 96.9%
13-5 12.2% 91.3% 20.7% 70.6% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.4 1.8 2.0 1.7 1.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 1.1 89.1%
12-6 12.4% 81.1% 14.9% 66.1% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.5 2.0 2.2 1.7 0.4 0.0 2.3 77.7%
11-7 10.9% 61.3% 8.7% 52.6% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.6 2.0 0.6 0.0 4.2 57.6%
10-8 9.9% 40.4% 6.4% 34.0% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.6 0.7 0.1 5.9 36.3%
9-9 7.9% 21.4% 3.9% 17.4% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.0 6.2 18.2%
8-10 6.0% 5.8% 1.9% 3.8% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 5.7 3.9%
7-11 4.0% 2.5% 1.5% 1.0% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.9 1.0%
6-12 2.4% 1.0% 1.0% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4
5-13 1.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 11.9 0.0 0.0 1.7 0.0%
4-14 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 13.0 0.0 0.8
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 14.0 0.0 0.1
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 65.0% 17.9% 47.1% 6.9 3.2 4.2 4.7 5.6 5.7 5.4 6.0 6.2 6.5 6.9 7.6 2.6 0.2 0.0 35.0 57.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.2 78.2 21.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.2 76.4 23.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.5 73.6 4.2 22.2