IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Illinois-Chicago
Horizon
2019-20

Overall
Predictive Rating	+1.8	#131
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	74.0	#62
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+1.0	#138

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+0.8	#137

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.2%	0.9%	0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid	18.4%	29.7%	17.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.6%	2.9%	0.4%
Average Seed	13.4	12.3	13.6

.500 or above	75.5%	92.5%	73.6%
.500 or above in Conference	80.9%	90.9%	79.8%
Conference Champion	23.0%	36.5%	21.5%
Last Place in Conference	2.2%	0.3%	2.4%

First Four	1.0%	1.7%	0.9%
First Round	18.0%	28.6%	16.8%
Second Round	2.6%	6.6%	2.2%
Sweet Sixteen	0.6%	1.6%	0.5%
Elite Eight	0.1%	0.4%	0.1%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Memphis (Away) - 9.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	1 - 3	1 - 4
Quad 3	6 - 5	7 - 10
Quad 4	12 - 3	19 - 12

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 08, 2019	26	@ Memphis	L	77-91	10%
Nov 13, 2019	120	Ball St.	W	77-75	56%
Nov 16, 2019	136	@ Bradley	L	68-71	40%
Nov 21, 2019	273	Robert Morris	W	76-65	84%
Nov 23, 2019	204	Mercer	W	77-70	74%
Nov 26, 2019	295	Canisius	W	81-69	86%
Dec 01, 2019	163	@ Florida Atlantic	L	72-73	46%
Dec 07, 2019	241	Purdue Fort Wayne	W	85-76	79%
Dec 14, 2019	97	@ DePaul	L	75-81	32%
Dec 18, 2019	187	@ Illinois St.	W	73-72	53%
Dec 20, 2019	106	UC Irvine	W	72-71	52%
Dec 28, 2019	311	Cleveland St.	W	83-69	88%
Dec 30, 2019	225	Youngstown St.	W	81-73	76%
Jan 03, 2020	167	@ Green Bay	L	83-84	47%
Jan 05, 2020	250	@ Wisconsin-Milwaukee	W	74-70	62%
Jan 10, 2020	133	Northern Kentucky	W	77-74	60%
Jan 12, 2020	103	Wright St.	W	72-71	52%
Jan 18, 2020	253	@ IUPUI	W	78-74	63%
Jan 23, 2020	201	@ Oakland	W	77-76	54%
Jan 25, 2020	219	@ Detroit Mercy	W	81-79	57%
Jan 30, 2020	225	@ Youngstown St.	W	78-76	57%
Feb 01, 2020	311	@ Cleveland St.	W	80-72	74%
Feb 06, 2020	250	Wisconsin-Milwaukee	W	77-67	79%
Feb 08, 2020	167	Green Bay	W	86-81	66%
Feb 14, 2020	103	@ Wright St.	L	69-74	34%
Feb 16, 2020	133	@ Northern Kentucky	L	74-77	40%
Feb 22, 2020	253	IUPUI	W	81-71	79%
Feb 27, 2020	219	Detroit Mercy	W	84-76	74%
Feb 29, 2020	201	Oakland	W	80-73	72%
Projected Record						17 - 12	11 - 7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Horizon Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.6	2.5	4.8	6.2	5.1	2.7	0.8		23.0	1st
2nd										0.0	0.1	1.4	4.6	6.3	4.3	1.8	0.3				18.7	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.3	1.8	5.0	5.4	2.7	0.5	0.0					15.7	3rd
4th								0.0	0.2	1.9	5.0	4.3	1.4	0.1							13.0	4th
5th							0.0	0.2	1.6	3.9	3.1	0.7	0.0								9.5	5th
6th						0.0	0.1	1.2	3.3	2.3	0.4	0.0									7.3	6th
7th					0.0	0.1	1.0	2.2	1.5	0.3	0.0										5.2	7th
8th				0.0	0.2	0.9	1.8	1.1	0.2	0.0											4.2	8th
9th			0.0	0.2	0.6	0.8	0.6	0.1													2.3	9th
10th	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0													1.2	10th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	1.1	2.1	3.6	4.7	6.7	8.7	10.4	11.5	12.0	11.6	9.7	8.1	5.4	2.7	0.8			Total

Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.8		0.8
17-1	100.0%	2.7		2.7	0.1
16-2	95.2%	5.1		4.4	0.7	0.0
15-3	77.1%	6.2		4.4	1.7	0.1
14-4	50.1%	4.8		2.6	1.9	0.3	0.0
13-5	21.8%	2.5		0.8	1.2	0.5	0.1	0.0
12-6	5.2%	0.6		0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0
11-7	0.4%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	23.0%	23.0		15.8	5.8	1.2	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.8%		80.7%	70.4%	10.4%	9.4			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0			0.2		34.9%
17-1	2.7%		61.0%	54.4%	6.6%	11.5				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.4	0.7	0.3	0.1	0.0		1.1		14.5%
16-2	5.4%		49.9%	47.5%	2.4%	12.5								0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	1.0	0.9	0.4	0.1		2.7		4.6%
15-3	8.1%		37.4%	36.5%	0.8%	13.0										0.0	0.0	0.1	0.8	1.2	0.7	0.2	0.0	5.0		1.3%
14-4	9.7%		28.4%	28.3%	0.1%	13.5												0.0	0.4	1.0	0.9	0.4	0.1	6.9		0.1%
13-5	11.6%		23.4%	23.4%		13.9												0.0	0.2	0.7	1.0	0.7	0.1	8.9
12-6	12.0%		14.7%	14.7%		14.4													0.0	0.3	0.6	0.7	0.2	10.2
11-7	11.5%		11.3%	11.3%		14.7													0.0	0.1	0.4	0.5	0.3	10.2
10-8	10.4%		8.0%	8.0%		15.1													0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.3	9.5
9-9	8.7%		6.7%	6.7%		15.5														0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	8.1
8-10	6.7%		4.1%	4.1%		15.7															0.0	0.1	0.2	6.5
7-11	4.7%		2.2%	2.2%		15.8																0.0	0.1	4.6
6-12	3.6%		1.3%	1.3%		16.0																0.0	0.0	3.5
5-13	2.1%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	2.1
4-14	1.1%																							1.1
3-15	0.5%																							0.5
2-16	0.2%																							0.2
1-17	0.1%																							0.1
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		18.4%	18.0%	0.5%	13.4			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.9	3.2	4.6	4.2	3.1	1.7	81.6		0.6%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	4.5		8.3	4.2	16.7	66.7	4.2