Preseason Rankings
Memphis
American Athletic
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+12.5#26
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace84.8#4
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.6#17
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.9#46
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
#1 Seed 3.1% 3.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 7.6% 7.6% 3.8%
Top 4 Seed 18.0% 18.1% 6.7%
Top 6 Seed 29.2% 29.4% 11.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 67.4% 67.6% 45.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 58.5% 58.7% 37.5%
Average Seed 6.9 6.9 8.4
.500 or above 95.3% 95.4% 82.7%
.500 or above in Conference 88.7% 88.8% 73.9%
Conference Champion 27.9% 28.0% 17.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
First Four6.3% 6.3% 6.3%
First Round64.2% 64.4% 42.3%
Second Round41.0% 41.2% 23.8%
Sweet Sixteen19.2% 19.3% 4.8%
Elite Eight8.8% 8.9% 1.3%
Final Four4.0% 4.0% 1.0%
Championship Game1.7% 1.7% 0.1%
National Champion0.8% 0.8% 0.0%

Next Game: South Carolina St. (Home) - 99.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b2 - 24 - 5
Quad 26 - 39 - 8
Quad 37 - 116 - 9
Quad 48 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 323   South Carolina St. W 96-70 99%    
  Nov 08, 2019 131   Illinois-Chicago W 91-77 90%    
  Nov 12, 2019 16   Oregon L 74-75 46%    
  Nov 16, 2019 345   Alcorn St. W 92-63 99.6%   
  Nov 20, 2019 220   Arkansas Little Rock W 92-73 95%    
  Nov 23, 2019 51   Mississippi W 86-80 70%    
  Nov 28, 2019 22   North Carolina St. L 88-89 49%    
  Dec 03, 2019 136   Bradley W 82-68 89%    
  Dec 07, 2019 140   @ UAB W 81-73 76%    
  Dec 14, 2019 30   @ Tennessee L 80-83 41%    
  Dec 21, 2019 303   Jackson St. W 86-62 98%    
  Dec 28, 2019 243   New Orleans W 90-70 96%    
  Dec 31, 2019 242   Tulane W 93-73 96%    
  Jan 04, 2020 62   Georgia W 86-79 72%    
  Jan 09, 2020 58   @ Wichita St. W 80-79 51%    
  Jan 12, 2020 79   @ South Florida W 80-77 59%    
  Jan 16, 2020 29   Cincinnati W 76-73 60%    
  Jan 22, 2020 100   @ Tulsa W 83-78 67%    
  Jan 25, 2020 89   SMU W 82-72 80%    
  Jan 29, 2020 94   @ Central Florida W 78-73 66%    
  Feb 01, 2020 73   Connecticut W 87-79 75%    
  Feb 05, 2020 83   Temple W 87-78 77%    
  Feb 08, 2020 79   South Florida W 83-74 77%    
  Feb 13, 2020 29   @ Cincinnati L 73-76 41%    
  Feb 16, 2020 73   @ Connecticut W 84-82 57%    
  Feb 19, 2020 203   East Carolina W 91-73 93%    
  Feb 22, 2020 32   Houston W 79-76 61%    
  Feb 25, 2020 89   @ SMU W 79-75 62%    
  Feb 29, 2020 242   @ Tulane W 90-76 88%    
  Mar 05, 2020 58   Wichita St. W 83-77 70%    
  Mar 08, 2020 32   @ Houston L 76-79 42%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 1.8 5.2 7.8 7.2 4.2 1.4 27.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.6 6.3 6.2 2.6 0.5 0.0 18.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.6 5.8 4.1 1.0 0.0 13.8 3rd
4th 0.2 2.0 5.1 3.1 0.6 0.0 11.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 4.3 3.0 0.4 0.0 9.1 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 2.7 2.3 0.4 0.0 6.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.2 2.0 0.4 0.0 5.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.4 0.4 0.0 3.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.8 3.0 4.9 6.7 9.2 11.6 12.3 12.8 12.5 10.4 7.7 4.2 1.4 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.4    1.4
17-1 99.8% 4.2    4.1 0.1
16-2 93.1% 7.2    6.2 1.0 0.0
15-3 75.0% 7.8    5.2 2.4 0.2 0.0
14-4 41.8% 5.2    2.2 2.2 0.7 0.1
13-5 14.2% 1.8    0.4 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0
12-6 2.6% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 27.9% 27.9 19.4 6.6 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.4% 100.0% 60.0% 40.0% 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 4.2% 100.0% 53.2% 46.8% 2.3 1.4 1.4 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
16-2 7.7% 99.8% 43.3% 56.5% 3.6 0.7 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
15-3 10.4% 99.2% 36.5% 62.7% 5.1 0.2 0.8 1.5 2.2 1.7 1.4 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.7%
14-4 12.5% 95.5% 29.9% 65.6% 6.7 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.8 1.9 2.0 1.6 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.6 93.6%
13-5 12.8% 88.5% 22.0% 66.6% 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.6 2.1 1.9 2.0 1.0 0.3 0.0 1.5 85.3%
12-6 12.3% 74.6% 18.0% 56.6% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.5 1.9 2.0 1.8 0.5 0.0 3.1 69.0%
11-7 11.6% 55.3% 11.4% 44.0% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.7 2.1 0.7 0.0 0.0 5.2 49.6%
10-8 9.2% 35.6% 7.2% 28.4% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.1 0.7 0.0 5.9 30.6%
9-9 6.7% 19.3% 4.2% 15.1% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.0 5.4 15.8%
8-10 4.9% 6.7% 3.0% 3.7% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.6 3.8%
7-11 3.0% 2.7% 2.1% 0.6% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.9 0.6%
6-12 1.8% 1.7% 1.6% 0.0% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8 0.0%
5-13 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 1.0
4-14 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 12.0 0.0 0.4
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 67.4% 21.4% 46.0% 6.9 3.1 4.5 4.5 5.9 5.7 5.6 6.2 6.8 6.9 8.1 7.3 2.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 32.6 58.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.2 79.6 20.0 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.1 93.9 6.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.3 74.6 24.6 0.8