Preseason Rankings
North Texas
Conference USA
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.6#152
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.0#304
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-2.0#237
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.6#99
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.6% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.3% 17.0% 6.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.5% 3.0% 0.2%
Average Seed 12.9 11.8 13.1
.500 or above 52.4% 82.3% 49.6%
.500 or above in Conference 64.5% 81.3% 62.9%
Conference Champion 8.4% 17.0% 7.6%
Last Place in Conference 4.7% 1.4% 5.0%
First Four0.4% 1.6% 0.2%
First Round7.1% 16.4% 6.2%
Second Round1.2% 3.8% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 1.3% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Virginia Commonwealth (Away) - 8.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 34 - 45 - 11
Quad 48 - 213 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2019 28   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 58-73 8%    
  Nov 12, 2019 57   @ Arkansas L 65-77 15%    
  Nov 16, 2019 222   Eastern Michigan W 64-57 74%    
  Nov 19, 2019 325   N.C. A&T W 72-58 90%    
  Nov 22, 2019 86   Rhode Island L 64-70 31%    
  Dec 02, 2019 135   @ Texas Arlington L 63-67 36%    
  Dec 05, 2019 38   Oklahoma L 64-72 26%    
  Dec 07, 2019 220   Arkansas Little Rock W 72-65 72%    
  Dec 17, 2019 60   @ Dayton L 59-70 16%    
  Dec 21, 2019 343   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 71-54 93%    
  Jan 02, 2020 76   @ Western Kentucky L 63-72 21%    
  Jan 04, 2020 188   @ Marshall L 75-76 48%    
  Jan 09, 2020 185   Florida International W 81-75 68%    
  Jan 11, 2020 163   Florida Atlantic W 67-63 62%    
  Jan 16, 2020 238   @ Southern Miss W 65-63 56%    
  Jan 18, 2020 116   @ Louisiana Tech L 62-68 31%    
  Jan 20, 2020 229   Rice W 75-68 73%    
  Jan 23, 2020 121   Texas San Antonio W 73-72 51%    
  Jan 25, 2020 169   UTEP W 67-63 63%    
  Feb 01, 2020 229   @ Rice W 72-71 54%    
  Feb 06, 2020 174   @ Middle Tennessee L 65-67 45%    
  Feb 08, 2020 140   @ UAB L 62-66 39%    
  Feb 13, 2020 276   Charlotte W 67-57 80%    
  Feb 15, 2020 139   Old Dominion W 61-59 58%    
Projected Record 12 - 12 7 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 2.6 2.8 1.6 0.4 8.4 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 3.9 3.7 0.9 0.1 9.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 4.1 4.0 1.0 0.0 9.8 3rd
4th 0.1 2.6 5.1 1.2 0.0 9.1 4th
5th 0.0 1.4 5.6 2.5 0.2 9.7 5th
6th 0.3 4.2 3.9 0.3 0.0 8.8 6th
7th 0.0 2.0 5.2 1.0 0.0 8.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 4.5 2.6 0.0 7.7 8th
9th 0.1 2.3 4.1 0.4 0.0 7.0 9th
10th 0.0 1.0 4.0 1.3 0.0 6.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 2.5 2.4 0.1 5.4 11th
12th 0.2 1.4 2.4 0.5 0.0 4.4 12th
13th 0.1 1.0 1.6 0.7 0.0 3.4 13th
14th 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 2.2 14th
Total 0.2 0.7 2.1 3.8 6.8 9.8 12.2 14.1 13.7 13.1 10.3 7.4 3.8 1.7 0.4 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
13-1 96.5% 1.6    1.3 0.3 0.0
12-2 74.2% 2.8    1.6 1.0 0.2 0.0
11-3 35.7% 2.6    0.7 1.2 0.7 0.1 0.0
10-4 8.9% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-5 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-6 0.0%
7-7 0.0%
Total 8.4% 8.4 4.1 2.9 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 0.4% 53.5% 42.6% 10.9% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 19.0%
13-1 1.7% 47.0% 37.4% 9.6% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 15.3%
12-2 3.8% 30.2% 26.7% 3.5% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.6 4.8%
11-3 7.4% 19.4% 18.4% 1.0% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.0 6.0 1.3%
10-4 10.3% 13.6% 13.4% 0.2% 13.3 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 8.9 0.2%
9-5 13.1% 9.9% 9.9% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 11.8
8-6 13.7% 4.2% 4.2% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 13.2
7-7 14.1% 1.7% 1.7% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 13.8
6-8 12.2% 1.3% 1.3% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 12.0
5-9 9.8% 0.4% 0.4% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.8
4-10 6.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.8
3-11 3.8% 3.8
2-12 2.1% 2.1
1-13 0.7% 0.7
0-14 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 7.3% 6.9% 0.4% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.6 2.1 1.6 0.8 0.2 92.7 0.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 3.0 50.0 50.0