Preseason Rankings
Dayton
Atlantic 10
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+8.8#60
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace63.5#317
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.0#54
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.8#74
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 1.3% 1.4% 0.3%
Top 4 Seed 4.4% 4.9% 1.2%
Top 6 Seed 8.2% 9.2% 2.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 37.7% 40.3% 20.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 24.8% 27.1% 11.0%
Average Seed 8.9 8.8 10.0
.500 or above 93.3% 95.0% 82.5%
.500 or above in Conference 89.7% 91.0% 81.1%
Conference Champion 22.1% 23.6% 12.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.3% 0.9%
First Four7.3% 7.7% 4.5%
First Round34.2% 36.7% 18.0%
Second Round17.1% 18.6% 7.0%
Sweet Sixteen6.4% 7.1% 2.1%
Elite Eight2.4% 2.6% 0.6%
Final Four0.9% 1.1% 0.1%
Championship Game0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Indiana St. (Home) - 86.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 3
Quad 23 - 35 - 6
Quad 38 - 213 - 8
Quad 410 - 122 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2019 158   Indiana St. W 77-65 87%    
  Nov 16, 2019 194   Charleston Southern W 77-63 90%    
  Nov 19, 2019 195   Nebraska Omaha W 79-65 90%    
  Nov 25, 2019 62   Georgia W 71-70 50%    
  Dec 03, 2019 292   Houston Baptist W 88-69 96%    
  Dec 08, 2019 19   St. Mary's L 63-67 35%    
  Dec 14, 2019 145   Drake W 76-65 83%    
  Dec 17, 2019 152   North Texas W 70-59 84%    
  Dec 21, 2019 40   Colorado L 68-70 42%    
  Dec 23, 2019 269   Grambling St. W 79-61 93%    
  Dec 30, 2019 155   North Florida W 82-70 84%    
  Jan 02, 2020 189   @ La Salle W 74-66 75%    
  Jan 05, 2020 221   @ Saint Joseph's W 75-66 78%    
  Jan 11, 2020 237   Massachusetts W 77-61 91%    
  Jan 14, 2020 28   Virginia Commonwealth L 68-69 48%    
  Jan 17, 2020 141   @ Saint Louis W 68-63 65%    
  Jan 22, 2020 115   St. Bonaventure W 68-60 75%    
  Jan 25, 2020 105   @ Richmond W 71-69 55%    
  Jan 29, 2020 126   @ Duquesne W 74-71 59%    
  Feb 01, 2020 233   Fordham W 72-56 90%    
  Feb 08, 2020 141   Saint Louis W 71-60 81%    
  Feb 11, 2020 86   Rhode Island W 72-66 68%    
  Feb 15, 2020 237   @ Massachusetts W 74-64 80%    
  Feb 18, 2020 28   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 65-71 30%    
  Feb 22, 2020 126   Duquesne W 77-68 78%    
  Feb 25, 2020 151   @ George Mason W 72-67 66%    
  Feb 28, 2020 52   Davidson W 68-66 57%    
  Mar 04, 2020 86   @ Rhode Island L 69-70 50%    
  Mar 07, 2020 190   George Washington W 75-61 87%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.9 6.3 6.7 4.1 1.4 22.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 4.9 7.4 4.6 1.1 0.0 19.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.2 4.7 5.6 2.9 0.4 0.0 14.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.7 5.0 1.8 0.1 0.0 11.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.8 4.2 1.5 0.2 9.1 5th
6th 0.2 1.6 3.6 1.4 0.2 0.0 6.9 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 2.7 1.6 0.1 0.0 5.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 1.7 1.3 0.2 0.0 3.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.3 0.2 0.0 2.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.9 4.4 6.3 9.0 10.7 12.6 13.1 13.3 11.3 7.8 4.1 1.4 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.4    1.4
17-1 98.9% 4.1    3.8 0.3
16-2 86.3% 6.7    4.9 1.8 0.1
15-3 55.4% 6.3    3.1 2.6 0.6 0.0
14-4 21.7% 2.9    0.8 1.3 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-5 5.0% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 22.1% 22.1 14.0 6.2 1.6 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.4% 99.3% 58.8% 40.5% 3.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.4%
17-1 4.1% 97.0% 49.5% 47.5% 5.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 94.0%
16-2 7.8% 89.7% 36.0% 53.7% 7.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.8 83.9%
15-3 11.3% 76.4% 31.2% 45.2% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.6 2.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 2.7 65.7%
14-4 13.3% 55.5% 22.6% 32.9% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.4 1.6 0.1 0.0 5.9 42.5%
13-5 13.1% 36.1% 15.8% 20.3% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.0 1.3 0.2 0.0 8.4 24.1%
12-6 12.6% 19.7% 10.9% 8.9% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 10.1 10.0%
11-7 10.7% 11.4% 7.6% 3.8% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 9.5 4.1%
10-8 9.0% 5.2% 4.0% 1.3% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.5 1.3%
9-9 6.3% 3.0% 2.7% 0.3% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.1 0.3%
8-10 4.4% 1.5% 1.5% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.3
7-11 2.9% 0.6% 0.6% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.9
6-12 1.6% 1.9% 1.9% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5
5-13 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 14.0 0.0 0.9
4-14 0.4% 0.4
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 37.7% 17.1% 20.6% 8.9 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.3 2.8 3.8 4.9 8.8 5.8 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 62.3 24.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 2.1 29.8 45.2 15.4 9.4 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 2.1 37.2 25.0 32.4 4.1 1.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 2.4 19.4 33.7 31.6 14.3 1.0