IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
San Diego St.
Mountain West
2019-20

Overall
Predictive Rating	+6.8	#77
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	67.5	#214
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+2.1	#111

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+4.7	#54

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.3%	0.4%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	1.4%	1.5%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	3.2%	3.4%	0.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid	24.4%	25.5%	10.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	10.8%	11.5%	2.8%
Average Seed	10.1	10.0	11.2

.500 or above	87.3%	89.0%	65.4%
.500 or above in Conference	83.5%	84.7%	68.5%
Conference Champion	17.0%	17.6%	8.8%
Last Place in Conference	0.4%	0.3%	1.1%

First Four	4.2%	4.4%	1.3%
First Round	22.4%	23.3%	10.0%
Second Round	8.9%	9.4%	3.5%
Sweet Sixteen	2.8%	2.9%	1.3%
Elite Eight	0.9%	0.9%	0.3%
Final Four	0.4%	0.4%	0.2%
Championship Game	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Texas Southern (Home) - 92.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	1 - 2	1 - 3
Quad 2	3 - 3	4 - 6
Quad 3	7 - 3	10 - 9
Quad 4	9 - 1	19 - 10

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 05, 2019	265	Texas Southern	W	87-71	93%
Nov 09, 2019	67	@ BYU	L	74-78	35%
Nov 13, 2019	137	Grand Canyon	W	74-66	78%
Nov 20, 2019	164	@ San Diego	W	69-65	64%
Nov 22, 2019	210	LIU Brooklyn	W	80-67	87%
Nov 25, 2019	272	Tennessee St.	W	80-64	92%
Nov 28, 2019	37	Creighton	L	70-74	35%
Dec 04, 2019	179	@ Colorado St.	W	73-68	68%
Dec 08, 2019	330	San Jose St.	W	82-61	96%
Dec 21, 2019	110	Utah	W	72-69	61%
Dec 28, 2019	327	Cal Poly	W	79-59	96%
Jan 01, 2020	118	Fresno St.	W	72-65	71%
Jan 04, 2020	34	@ Utah St.	L	67-75	25%
Jan 08, 2020	275	@ Wyoming	W	74-64	80%
Jan 11, 2020	90	Boise St.	W	71-66	65%
Jan 14, 2020	118	@ Fresno St.	W	69-68	52%
Jan 18, 2020	95	Nevada	W	75-70	67%
Jan 21, 2020	275	Wyoming	W	77-61	91%
Jan 26, 2020	146	@ UNLV	W	72-69	59%
Jan 29, 2020	92	@ New Mexico	L	77-78	47%
Feb 01, 2020	34	Utah St.	L	70-72	44%
Feb 08, 2020	170	@ Air Force	W	71-67	64%
Feb 11, 2020	92	New Mexico	W	80-75	66%
Feb 16, 2020	90	@ Boise St.	L	68-69	44%
Feb 22, 2020	146	UNLV	W	75-66	77%
Feb 25, 2020	179	Colorado St.	W	76-65	82%
Feb 29, 2020	95	@ Nevada	L	72-73	48%
Projected Record						18 - 9	11 - 7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Mountain West Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.1	0.9	3.1	5.0	4.7	2.7	0.7		17.0	1st
2nd											0.0	0.3	2.3	5.5	6.2	2.9	0.6				17.8	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.4	3.0	6.2	4.6	1.4	0.1					15.7	3rd
4th									0.0	0.5	3.1	5.8	3.7	0.8	0.0						14.0	4th
5th								0.0	0.4	2.7	4.8	2.8	0.4	0.0							11.2	5th
6th						0.0	0.0	0.4	2.4	4.0	2.3	0.3	0.0								9.4	6th
7th						0.1	0.5	1.8	2.9	1.4	0.2	0.0									6.9	7th
8th					0.0	0.3	1.4	1.6	0.8	0.1	0.0										4.2	8th
9th				0.1	0.3	1.0	0.9	0.3	0.1												2.7	9th
10th		0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0													1.0	10th
11th	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0															0.2	11th

Total	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.7	1.7	2.9	4.2	6.5	8.7	10.7	12.2	12.7	11.8	10.7	8.0	5.3	2.7	0.7			Total

Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.7		0.7
17-1	100.0%	2.7		2.5	0.2
16-2	88.3%	4.7		3.6	1.1	0.0
15-3	61.9%	5.0		2.8	1.9	0.3	0.0
14-4	28.7%	3.1		1.1	1.4	0.6	0.1	0.0
13-5	7.3%	0.9		0.1	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0
12-6	0.8%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%	0.0					0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	17.0%	17.0		10.7	4.9	1.2	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.7%		99.6%	54.8%	44.8%	4.1		0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0					0.0		99.2%
17-1	2.7%		92.6%	51.2%	41.4%	6.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.4	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0				0.2		84.9%
16-2	5.3%		80.9%	41.5%	39.4%	8.5			0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.4	0.5	0.4	0.5	0.6	0.8	0.4	0.0				1.0		67.3%
15-3	8.0%		60.8%	32.7%	28.1%	10.1				0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.7	0.8	1.6	0.9	0.1	0.0			3.2		41.7%
14-4	10.7%		42.5%	24.6%	17.9%	11.0						0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.6	1.8	1.4	0.2	0.0			6.2		23.7%
13-5	11.8%		26.6%	17.7%	8.9%	11.6								0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	1.0	1.4	0.3	0.1	0.0		8.7		10.8%
12-6	12.7%		14.9%	12.2%	2.8%	12.0									0.0	0.0	0.0	0.4	1.0	0.4	0.1	0.0		10.8		3.1%
11-7	12.2%		10.9%	10.4%	0.5%	12.5											0.0	0.1	0.6	0.5	0.1	0.0		10.9		0.5%
10-8	10.7%		6.8%	6.4%	0.4%	12.8												0.0	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0	10.0		0.4%
9-9	8.7%		3.4%	3.4%		13.3												0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	8.4
8-10	6.5%		1.7%	1.7%		13.9												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	6.4
7-11	4.2%		1.5%	1.5%		14.1													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4.1
6-12	2.9%		0.5%	0.5%		14.8														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.9
5-13	1.7%		0.1%	0.1%		14.7															0.0		0.0	1.7
4-14	0.7%		0.1%	0.1%		15.0																0.0		0.7
3-15	0.3%																							0.3
2-16	0.1%																							0.1
1-17	0.0%																							0.0
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		24.4%	15.3%	9.2%	10.1		0.1	0.2	0.4	0.7	0.8	1.0	1.2	1.1	1.7	2.5	5.9	6.0	2.0	0.6	0.1	0.0	75.6		10.8%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.1%	100.0%	2.2	27.1	32.7	33.1	6.8	0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	100.0%	3.7	1.2	19.8	39.5	18.5	2.5	1.2	17.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	100.0%	4.6	5.7		2.9	51.4		40.0