Preseason Rankings
Creighton
Big East
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.2#37
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.1#117
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.2#22
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.0#65
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.9% 1.9% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 5.0% 5.0% 0.7%
Top 4 Seed 14.0% 14.1% 1.7%
Top 6 Seed 25.4% 25.6% 5.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 54.2% 54.6% 17.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 49.8% 50.2% 14.8%
Average Seed 6.7 6.7 8.0
.500 or above 78.2% 78.6% 36.3%
.500 or above in Conference 60.6% 60.9% 28.3%
Conference Champion 10.7% 10.8% 3.1%
Last Place in Conference 6.5% 6.4% 19.1%
First Four4.1% 4.1% 2.7%
First Round52.1% 52.5% 15.8%
Second Round33.1% 33.4% 6.6%
Sweet Sixteen14.8% 14.9% 3.2%
Elite Eight6.6% 6.6% 1.6%
Final Four2.7% 2.7% 0.8%
Championship Game1.0% 1.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.4% 0.4% 0.0%

Next Game: Kennesaw St. (Home) - 99.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 34 - 8
Quad 25 - 39 - 11
Quad 35 - 114 - 12
Quad 45 - 019 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 320   Kennesaw St. W 87-63 99%    
  Nov 12, 2019 21   @ Michigan L 67-72 34%    
  Nov 16, 2019 116   Louisiana Tech W 77-66 84%    
  Nov 22, 2019 327   Cal Poly W 86-61 99%    
  Nov 24, 2019 155   North Florida W 88-74 89%    
  Nov 28, 2019 77   San Diego St. W 74-70 65%    
  Dec 03, 2019 205   Oral Roberts W 85-68 93%    
  Dec 07, 2019 88   Nebraska W 77-69 76%    
  Dec 13, 2019 230   UT Rio Grande Valley W 85-67 94%    
  Dec 17, 2019 38   Oklahoma W 77-74 60%    
  Dec 21, 2019 65   @ Arizona St. W 80-79 50%    
  Jan 01, 2020 27   Marquette W 78-76 56%    
  Jan 04, 2020 56   @ Butler L 72-73 46%    
  Jan 07, 2020 11   Villanova L 70-72 44%    
  Jan 11, 2020 23   @ Xavier L 71-75 36%    
  Jan 15, 2020 54   @ Georgetown L 81-82 46%    
  Jan 18, 2020 36   Providence W 75-72 60%    
  Jan 22, 2020 97   @ DePaul W 80-76 62%    
  Jan 26, 2020 23   Xavier W 74-72 55%    
  Feb 01, 2020 11   @ Villanova L 67-75 26%    
  Feb 05, 2020 36   @ Providence L 72-75 40%    
  Feb 08, 2020 93   St. John's W 83-73 79%    
  Feb 12, 2020 17   @ Seton Hall L 73-78 33%    
  Feb 15, 2020 97   DePaul W 83-73 80%    
  Feb 18, 2020 27   @ Marquette L 75-79 37%    
  Feb 23, 2020 56   Butler W 75-70 65%    
  Mar 01, 2020 93   @ St. John's W 80-76 62%    
  Mar 04, 2020 54   Georgetown W 84-79 65%    
  Mar 07, 2020 17   Seton Hall W 76-75 52%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 2.9 2.6 1.8 0.7 0.2 10.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.2 4.0 2.2 0.6 0.1 11.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.7 4.7 4.0 1.5 0.2 0.0 12.3 3rd
4th 0.3 2.2 4.9 4.1 1.0 0.1 12.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.0 5.1 3.6 0.9 0.0 11.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.2 5.2 3.1 0.6 0.0 11.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.4 4.4 2.6 0.4 0.0 10.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.6 3.5 1.9 0.2 0.0 8.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.1 2.2 1.1 0.1 0.0 6.7 9th
10th 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.2 1.1 0.3 0.0 3.8 10th
Total 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.1 3.9 5.5 7.3 8.8 10.4 11.0 11.0 11.1 8.9 7.3 5.3 3.2 1.9 0.7 0.2 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 0.7    0.7 0.0
16-2 94.4% 1.8    1.6 0.2 0.0
15-3 79.9% 2.6    1.9 0.6 0.0
14-4 54.9% 2.9    1.5 1.2 0.2 0.0
13-5 24.3% 1.8    0.6 0.8 0.3 0.1
12-6 6.9% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 10.7% 10.7 6.6 3.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 100.0% 50.7% 49.3% 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.7% 100.0% 50.8% 49.2% 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.9% 100.0% 32.8% 67.2% 2.1 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 3.2% 100.0% 34.7% 65.3% 2.8 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 5.3% 99.9% 23.8% 76.1% 4.0 0.2 0.8 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
13-5 7.3% 99.1% 19.8% 79.4% 5.1 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.5 1.7 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.9%
12-6 8.9% 97.4% 13.3% 84.1% 6.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.5 1.9 1.4 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.2 97.0%
11-7 11.1% 87.8% 9.5% 78.3% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.4 1.7 1.9 1.5 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.3 86.5%
10-8 11.0% 75.5% 6.7% 68.8% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.3 0.3 0.0 2.7 73.8%
9-9 11.0% 51.0% 4.2% 46.8% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 5.4 48.8%
8-10 10.4% 24.1% 2.7% 21.4% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.0 7.9 22.0%
7-11 8.8% 7.9% 1.2% 6.6% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 8.1 6.7%
6-12 7.3% 1.6% 0.5% 1.0% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.2 1.1%
5-13 5.5% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.5 0.3%
4-14 3.9% 3.9
3-15 2.1% 2.1
2-16 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 1.0
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 54.2% 8.8% 45.4% 6.7 1.9 3.1 4.3 4.8 5.5 5.9 5.7 6.2 5.5 5.0 4.9 1.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 45.8 49.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 97.6 2.4