Appalachian St.
Sun Belt
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.0#194
Expected Predictive Rating-1.0#189
Pace69.5#181
Improvement-4.8#336

Offense
Total Offense-1.6#226
First Shot-1.5#227
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#183
Layup/Dunks-0.5#196
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#187
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#249
Freethrows+1.4#82
Improvement+0.5#145

Defense
Total Defense-0.4#167
First Shot+0.8#129
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#272
Layups/Dunks+1.0#131
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#33
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#321
Freethrows+1.2#115
Improvement-5.3#350
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.2% 2.9% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.6 14.9
.500 or above 30.0% 41.4% 17.6%
.500 or above in Conference 43.8% 57.4% 29.2%
Conference Champion 1.0% 1.7% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 3.0% 1.1% 5.1%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round2.2% 2.8% 1.4%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas Little Rock (Home) - 51.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 35 - 75 - 13
Quad 49 - 314 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 19   @ Michigan L 71-79 5%     0 - 1 +8.5 -0.5 +9.7
  Nov 12, 2019 221   East Carolina W 68-62 67%     1 - 1 -0.5 -6.5 +6.1
  Nov 15, 2019 236   Montana St. L 56-59 58%     1 - 2 -7.2 -19.5 +12.4
  Nov 16, 2019 339   Tennessee Tech W 69-47 84%     2 - 2 +9.4 +2.7 +10.1
  Nov 18, 2019 84   @ UNC Greensboro L 41-55 14%     2 - 3 -4.6 -22.1 +16.6
  Nov 21, 2019 171   Charlotte W 64-55 55%     3 - 3 +5.8 -8.3 +13.9
  Nov 26, 2019 75   @ East Tennessee St. L 69-78 13%     3 - 4 +0.9 +2.5 -1.7
  Dec 14, 2019 349   @ Howard W 81-59 88%     4 - 4 +7.0 -4.4 +10.6
  Dec 19, 2019 183   @ South Alabama W 81-71 34%     5 - 4 1 - 0 +12.2 +14.2 -1.3
  Dec 21, 2019 276   @ Troy W 70-65 56%     6 - 4 2 - 0 +1.4 -3.7 +5.1
  Dec 29, 2019 42   @ North Carolina St. L 60-72 8%     6 - 5 +1.7 -9.4 +11.1
  Jan 02, 2020 97   Georgia St. L 60-69 35%     6 - 6 2 - 1 -7.0 -18.5 +12.4
  Jan 04, 2020 133   Georgia Southern W 74-72 46%     7 - 6 3 - 1 +1.1 -4.9 +5.8
  Jan 06, 2020 256   Louisiana L 73-81 73%     7 - 7 3 - 2 -16.3 -6.6 -9.5
  Jan 09, 2020 127   @ Texas Arlington L 56-66 24%     7 - 8 3 - 3 -4.8 -6.5 +0.4
  Jan 11, 2020 136   @ Texas St. L 57-82 26%     7 - 9 3 - 4 -20.3 -5.3 -18.4
  Jan 16, 2020 229   Arkansas St. W 83-80 OT 68%     8 - 9 4 - 4 -3.8 +1.7 -5.6
  Jan 18, 2020 161   Arkansas Little Rock W 69-68 52%    
  Jan 25, 2020 159   @ Coastal Carolina L 70-76 29%    
  Jan 30, 2020 229   @ Arkansas St. L 69-70 46%    
  Feb 01, 2020 161   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 66-71 31%    
  Feb 06, 2020 127   Texas Arlington L 68-69 45%    
  Feb 08, 2020 136   Texas St. L 65-66 47%    
  Feb 13, 2020 97   @ Georgia St. L 68-78 18%    
  Feb 15, 2020 133   @ Georgia Southern L 69-76 26%    
  Feb 20, 2020 183   South Alabama W 69-67 56%    
  Feb 22, 2020 276   Troy W 72-65 76%    
  Feb 29, 2020 159   Coastal Carolina W 74-73 51%    
  Mar 03, 2020 245   @ Louisiana Monroe L 65-66 49%    
Projected Record 13 - 16 9 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.0 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 1.6 0.6 0.1 3.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 3.2 1.3 0.1 5.5 3rd
4th 0.5 4.5 2.7 0.2 8.0 4th
5th 0.2 3.8 5.4 0.7 0.0 10.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 2.8 7.8 2.2 0.0 12.9 6th
7th 0.0 1.7 8.3 5.0 0.3 15.4 7th
8th 0.0 1.2 7.2 7.7 0.9 0.0 17.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 5.3 6.8 1.4 0.0 14.1 9th
10th 0.3 2.5 4.0 1.3 0.0 8.1 10th
11th 0.1 1.0 1.9 0.9 0.0 3.8 11th
12th 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.8 12th
Total 0.2 1.7 5.3 11.5 17.1 20.5 18.0 13.3 7.8 3.4 1.1 0.2 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-5 71.7% 0.2    0.1 0.1
14-6 36.9% 0.4    0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 10.3% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.0% 1.0 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.2% 35.8% 35.8% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-6 1.1% 16.4% 16.4% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.9
13-7 3.4% 10.9% 10.9% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.1
12-8 7.8% 6.7% 6.7% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 7.2
11-9 13.3% 3.4% 3.4% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 12.9
10-10 18.0% 1.7% 1.7% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 17.7
9-11 20.5% 0.9% 0.9% 15.6 0.1 0.1 20.3
8-12 17.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 17.0
7-13 11.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.5
6-14 5.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.3
5-15 1.7% 1.7
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 14.7 0.2 0.6 1.1 0.3 97.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%