Michigan
Big Ten
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+13.3#22
Expected Predictive Rating+13.8#23
Pace68.9#192
Improvement-2.3#272

Offense
Total Offense+7.5#19
First Shot+9.5#3
After Offensive Rebound-2.0#308
Layup/Dunks+5.1#21
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#81
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#50
Freethrows-1.6#294
Improvement+0.3#162

Defense
Total Defense+5.8#42
First Shot+5.3#44
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#135
Layups/Dunks+2.1#90
2 Pt Jumpshots-7.7#352
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.1#1
Freethrows+2.8#34
Improvement-2.6#303
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
#1 Seed 0.8% 1.1% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 3.8% 5.1% 1.3%
Top 4 Seed 22.9% 28.6% 12.4%
Top 6 Seed 49.6% 57.8% 34.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 81.0% 87.1% 69.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 79.8% 86.2% 68.4%
Average Seed 6.1 5.8 6.9
.500 or above 95.8% 98.0% 91.5%
.500 or above in Conference 60.0% 69.5% 42.5%
Conference Champion 2.5% 3.4% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.5% 1.8%
First Four5.1% 4.1% 6.9%
First Round78.9% 85.4% 66.7%
Second Round53.9% 59.9% 42.7%
Sweet Sixteen26.8% 30.6% 19.7%
Elite Eight12.3% 14.2% 8.8%
Final Four5.4% 6.4% 3.6%
Championship Game2.2% 2.6% 1.5%
National Champion0.9% 1.1% 0.5%

Next Game: Penn St. (Home) - 65.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 94 - 9
Quad 1b4 - 38 - 11
Quad 26 - 113 - 13
Quad 32 - 015 - 13
Quad 45 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 204   Appalachian St. W 79-71 95%     1 - 0 +2.4 -3.3 +5.0
  Nov 12, 2019 33   Creighton W 79-69 66%     2 - 0 +19.0 +14.5 +5.3
  Nov 15, 2019 307   Elon W 70-50 98%     3 - 0 +8.3 -3.8 +13.8
  Nov 22, 2019 344   Houston Baptist W 111-68 99%     4 - 0 +25.2 +0.1 +17.2
  Nov 27, 2019 56   Iowa St. W 83-76 67%     5 - 0 +15.8 +3.8 +11.3
  Nov 28, 2019 69   North Carolina W 73-64 71%     6 - 0 +16.6 +3.4 +13.2
  Nov 29, 2019 3   Gonzaga W 82-64 29%     7 - 0 +37.2 +16.2 +20.9
  Dec 03, 2019 6   @ Louisville L 43-58 27%     7 - 1 +4.6 -16.9 +20.5
  Dec 06, 2019 16   Iowa W 103-91 57%     8 - 1 1 - 0 +23.5 +26.3 -3.4
  Dec 11, 2019 34   @ Illinois L 62-71 45%     8 - 2 1 - 1 +5.5 -1.9 +7.1
  Dec 14, 2019 21   Oregon L 70-71 OT 60%     8 - 3 +9.9 +1.9 +8.0
  Dec 21, 2019 327   Presbyterian W 86-44 98%     9 - 3 +28.8 +13.7 +19.0
  Dec 29, 2019 268   Umass Lowell W 86-60 97%     10 - 3 +17.1 +0.7 +14.9
  Jan 05, 2020 4   @ Michigan St. L 69-87 24%     10 - 4 1 - 2 +2.9 +1.2 +2.8
  Jan 09, 2020 19   Purdue W 84-78 2OT 59%     11 - 4 2 - 2 +17.1 +8.3 +8.0
  Jan 12, 2020 35   @ Minnesota L 67-75 46%     11 - 5 2 - 3 +6.5 +7.5 -1.9
  Jan 17, 2020 16   @ Iowa L 83-90 36%     11 - 6 2 - 4 +10.2 +11.8 -1.4
  Jan 22, 2020 30   Penn St. W 76-72 65%    
  Jan 25, 2020 34   Illinois W 73-69 67%    
  Jan 28, 2020 120   @ Nebraska W 78-70 75%    
  Feb 01, 2020 32   Rutgers W 67-66 55%    
  Feb 04, 2020 14   Ohio St. W 69-68 56%    
  Feb 08, 2020 4   Michigan St. L 73-75 44%    
  Feb 12, 2020 100   @ Northwestern W 71-65 70%    
  Feb 16, 2020 40   Indiana W 72-67 69%    
  Feb 19, 2020 32   @ Rutgers L 66-67 45%    
  Feb 22, 2020 19   @ Purdue L 62-65 37%    
  Feb 27, 2020 24   Wisconsin W 64-61 62%    
  Mar 01, 2020 14   @ Ohio St. L 66-70 34%    
  Mar 05, 2020 120   Nebraska W 80-67 89%    
  Mar 08, 2020 7   @ Maryland L 64-70 29%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 10 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.6 0.1 2.5 1st
2nd 0.0 1.1 3.1 1.9 0.2 0.0 6.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 4.1 2.9 0.3 0.0 7.8 3rd
4th 0.0 2.7 5.1 0.7 0.0 8.5 4th
5th 0.7 6.0 2.1 0.0 8.9 5th
6th 0.0 3.5 5.7 0.3 0.0 9.6 6th
7th 0.7 6.7 1.9 0.0 9.3 7th
8th 0.1 3.4 5.8 0.2 9.5 8th
9th 0.0 1.2 6.1 1.8 0.0 9.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 4.0 4.5 0.2 9.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 2.6 4.9 1.3 9.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 2.3 3.6 1.6 0.1 8.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 3.5 6.9 11.8 16.2 18.7 17.0 12.8 7.3 3.4 0.8 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 94.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-5 74.6% 0.6    0.3 0.2 0.0
14-6 34.6% 1.2    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1
13-7 7.3% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.5% 2.5 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.1% 100.0% 24.8% 75.2% 1.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 0.8% 100.0% 25.3% 74.7% 1.9 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-6 3.4% 100.0% 19.1% 80.9% 2.6 0.3 1.2 1.4 0.4 0.1 100.0%
13-7 7.3% 100.0% 15.3% 84.7% 3.4 0.1 0.9 3.1 2.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-8 12.8% 100.0% 12.5% 87.5% 4.3 0.0 0.4 2.8 3.9 3.9 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-9 17.0% 99.9% 5.5% 94.5% 5.4 0.1 1.1 2.6 5.3 5.0 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
10-10 18.7% 99.1% 4.0% 95.1% 6.6 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.9 5.3 4.6 2.8 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.2 99.1%
9-11 16.2% 86.1% 3.0% 83.1% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.0 2.8 2.6 2.3 2.1 0.3 2.3 85.6%
8-12 11.8% 52.3% 1.7% 50.5% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.3 2.4 0.6 0.0 5.6 51.4%
7-13 6.9% 14.9% 0.9% 14.0% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 5.9 14.2%
6-14 3.5% 1.6% 0.6% 1.0% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.4 1.0%
5-15 1.2% 0.8% 0.6% 0.2% 11.3 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.2%
4-16 0.3% 0.3
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 81.0% 6.0% 75.0% 6.1 0.8 2.9 8.9 10.3 13.4 13.2 9.4 6.8 4.6 4.2 5.3 1.1 0.0 19.0 79.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.2 81.8 18.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.5 54.8 45.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.3 72.0 28.0