Arkansas Pine Bluff
Southwestern Athletic
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-16.6#346
Expected Predictive Rating-15.8#342
Pace66.7#248
Improvement-2.4#277

Offense
Total Offense-13.3#351
First Shot-13.3#352
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#176
Layup/Dunks-4.4#329
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#22
3 Pt Jumpshots-13.1#353
Freethrows-0.3#197
Improvement-0.9#234

Defense
Total Defense-3.3#267
First Shot-2.6#261
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#232
Layups/Dunks+0.9#128
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#97
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#253
Freethrows-3.0#323
Improvement-1.5#263
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 1.6% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 5.4% 21.0% 4.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 14.0% 3.6% 14.9%
First Four0.5% 1.6% 0.4%
First Round0.1% 0.9% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas Southern (Away) - 8.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 60 - 8
Quad 30 - 40 - 12
Quad 46 - 126 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 115   @ South Florida L 41-70 3%     0 - 1 -22.7 -26.0 +3.7
  Nov 09, 2019 3   @ Gonzaga L 60-110 0.2%    0 - 2 -27.6 -8.4 -15.6
  Nov 16, 2019 226   @ Grand Canyon L 54-67 8%     0 - 3 -13.9 -18.8 +4.6
  Nov 19, 2019 78   @ Kansas St. L 51-62 2%     0 - 4 -1.2 -14.0 +12.7
  Nov 21, 2019 72   @ Pittsburgh L 41-66 2%     0 - 5 -14.9 -19.8 +1.3
  Dec 04, 2019 75   @ Tulsa L 39-72 2%     0 - 6 -22.9 -24.4 -0.1
  Dec 07, 2019 152   @ UTEP L 50-59 4%     0 - 7 -5.3 -11.7 +5.3
  Dec 14, 2019 94   @ Oregon St. L 46-80 2%     0 - 8 -25.5 -23.8 -3.1
  Dec 18, 2019 96   @ New Mexico St. L 40-65 2%     0 - 9 -16.9 -19.9 -2.4
  Dec 21, 2019 87   @ North Texas L 53-86 2%     0 - 10 -23.6 -17.3 -5.5
  Dec 29, 2019 129   @ Washington St. L 50-65 3%     0 - 11 -9.8 -14.5 +3.1
  Jan 04, 2020 352   @ Mississippi Valley W 80-76 56%     1 - 11 1 - 0 -14.0 -15.4 +0.7
  Jan 11, 2020 342   @ Alabama A&M L 49-59 28%     1 - 12 1 - 1 -20.4 -20.2 -1.6
  Jan 13, 2020 341   @ Alabama St. W 61-56 27%     2 - 12 2 - 1 -5.2 -11.2 +6.3
  Jan 18, 2020 331   Southern L 56-75 39%     2 - 13 2 - 2 -32.6 -21.3 -12.2
  Jan 20, 2020 305   Alcorn St. L 54-82 31%     2 - 14 2 - 3 -39.5 -29.2 -8.0
  Jan 25, 2020 205   @ Prairie View L 54-67 7%     2 - 15 2 - 4 -12.8 -15.2 +2.1
  Jan 27, 2020 244   @ Texas Southern L 61-76 8%    
  Feb 01, 2020 319   Grambling St. L 60-64 35%    
  Feb 03, 2020 329   Jackson St. L 60-63 39%    
  Feb 08, 2020 342   Alabama A&M L 62-63 49%    
  Feb 10, 2020 341   Alabama St. L 62-63 48%    
  Feb 15, 2020 331   @ Southern L 57-66 20%    
  Feb 17, 2020 305   @ Alcorn St. L 60-71 16%    
  Feb 22, 2020 205   Prairie View L 58-69 16%    
  Feb 24, 2020 244   Texas Southern L 64-73 21%    
  Feb 29, 2020 319   @ Grambling St. L 57-67 18%    
  Mar 02, 2020 329   @ Jackson St. L 57-66 20%    
  Mar 07, 2020 352   Mississippi Valley W 75-68 75%    
Projected Record 6 - 23 6 - 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.7 0.1 2.0 4th
5th 0.3 1.9 1.7 0.4 0.0 4.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.4 3.6 0.6 0.0 8.1 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 6.0 7.9 2.1 0.1 17.4 7th
8th 0.1 2.3 9.6 10.8 3.7 0.2 26.7 8th
9th 0.3 4.4 13.0 12.0 4.6 0.3 0.0 34.6 9th
10th 1.1 2.9 2.0 0.3 6.3 10th
Total 1.4 7.4 17.3 23.1 21.9 15.5 8.0 3.5 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.1
11-7 0.3% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.0 0.3
10-8 1.5% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 0.1 1.4
9-9 3.5% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.1 3.4
8-10 8.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 8.0
7-11 15.5% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 15.4
6-12 21.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 21.8
5-13 23.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 23.1
4-14 17.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 17.3
3-15 7.4% 7.4
2-16 1.4% 1.4
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 16.0 0.5 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.4%