Arkansas Pine Bluff
Southwestern Athletic
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-14.0#344
Expected Predictive Rating-7.8#274
Pace66.9#256
Improvement+1.5#25

Offense
Total Offense-9.7#349
First Shot-15.1#351
After Offensive Rebound+5.4#10
Layup/Dunks+62.0#1
2 Pt Jumpshots+34.4#1
3 Pt Jumpshots-167.3#353
Freethrows+55.7#1
Improvement+0.7#62

Defense
Total Defense-4.2#294
First Shot-3.9#283
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#197
Layups/Dunks+2.0#122
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#176
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#207
Freethrows-5.6#342
Improvement+0.8#62
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.8% 3.0% 2.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 1.8% 9.2% 1.7%
.500 or above in Conference 36.1% 56.5% 35.9%
Conference Champion 1.9% 3.3% 1.9%
Last Place in Conference 10.0% 1.5% 10.1%
First Four2.7% 3.0% 2.7%
First Round1.1% 0.0% 1.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Kansas St. (Away) - 0.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 30 - 60 - 12
Quad 48 - 118 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 139   @ South Florida L 41-70 5%     0 - 1 -24.5 -26.6 +2.4
  Nov 09, 2019 5   @ Gonzaga L 60-110 0.4%    0 - 2 -27.8 -8.0 -16.1
  Nov 16, 2019 171   @ Grand Canyon L 54-67 7%     0 - 3 -10.6 -17.2 +6.3
  Nov 19, 2019 49   @ Kansas St. L 45-72 1%    
  Nov 21, 2019 99   @ Pittsburgh L 51-73 2%    
  Nov 30, 2019 185   @ Sam Houston St. L 57-73 8%    
  Dec 04, 2019 130   @ Tulsa L 55-74 4%    
  Dec 07, 2019 136   @ UTEP L 54-73 5%    
  Dec 14, 2019 69   @ Oregon St. L 55-80 1%    
  Dec 21, 2019 156   @ North Texas L 49-66 7%    
  Dec 29, 2019 93   @ New Mexico St. L 55-77 2%    
  Dec 29, 2019 141   @ Washington St. L 60-78 5%    
  Jan 04, 2020 352   @ Mississippi Valley W 80-77 62%    
  Jan 11, 2020 351   @ Alabama A&M W 67-65 56%    
  Jan 13, 2020 320   @ Alabama St. L 62-68 29%    
  Jan 18, 2020 342   Southern W 65-62 60%    
  Jan 20, 2020 340   Alcorn St. W 69-67 55%    
  Jan 25, 2020 269   @ Prairie View L 61-72 16%    
  Jan 27, 2020 276   @ Texas Southern L 68-79 17%    
  Feb 01, 2020 250   Grambling St. L 65-71 29%    
  Feb 03, 2020 315   Jackson St. L 66-67 47%    
  Feb 08, 2020 351   Alabama A&M W 70-62 74%    
  Feb 10, 2020 320   Alabama St. L 64-65 49%    
  Feb 15, 2020 342   @ Southern L 62-65 39%    
  Feb 17, 2020 340   @ Alcorn St. L 66-70 35%    
  Feb 22, 2020 269   Prairie View L 64-69 32%    
  Feb 24, 2020 276   Texas Southern L 71-76 33%    
  Feb 29, 2020 250   @ Grambling St. L 62-74 15%    
  Mar 02, 2020 315   @ Jackson St. L 63-70 28%    
  Mar 07, 2020 352   Mississippi Valley W 83-74 79%    
Projected Record 8 - 22 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 1.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.4 0.6 0.1 4.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 2.5 2.0 0.5 0.1 6.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.9 3.0 0.7 0.0 9.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.9 5.5 3.4 0.7 0.0 13.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 3.8 6.6 3.7 0.8 0.0 15.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 4.9 6.3 3.6 0.7 16.9 7th
8th 0.3 2.0 5.2 5.7 2.3 0.4 0.0 15.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.3 4.3 3.0 1.1 0.1 0.0 11.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 1.7 1.7 1.2 0.2 0.0 5.8 10th
Total 0.1 0.8 2.2 4.2 7.6 9.9 12.5 12.9 13.7 11.7 8.9 6.7 4.3 2.4 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.1 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 84.3% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
14-4 48.1% 0.7    0.3 0.3 0.1
13-5 18.6% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.9% 1.9 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.1% 50.0% 50.0% 16.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 17.4% 17.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.5% 24.5% 24.5% 16.0 0.1 0.4
14-4 1.4% 12.4% 12.4% 16.0 0.2 1.2
13-5 2.4% 12.0% 12.0% 16.0 0.3 2.1
12-6 4.3% 9.0% 9.0% 16.0 0.4 3.9
11-7 6.7% 5.6% 5.6% 16.0 0.4 6.3
10-8 8.9% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.3 8.6
9-9 11.7% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.4 11.2
8-10 13.7% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.2 13.5
7-11 12.9% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 12.8
6-12 12.5% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 12.3
5-13 9.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.8
4-14 7.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.6
3-15 4.2% 4.2
2-16 2.2% 2.2
1-17 0.8% 0.8
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 16.0 2.8 97.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%