Tulsa
American Athletic
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.4#106
Expected Predictive Rating+5.0#101
Pace66.5#259
Improvement+5.0#14

Offense
Total Offense+0.5#165
First Shot-1.5#224
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#45
Layup/Dunks+2.5#78
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#121
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#309
Freethrows-0.3#194
Improvement+2.4#44

Defense
Total Defense+3.9#78
First Shot+4.5#55
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#224
Layups/Dunks+5.9#16
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#240
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#301
Freethrows+2.6#41
Improvement+2.6#46
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.7% 3.6% 1.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.5% 0.8% 0.2%
Average Seed 11.4 11.3 11.7
.500 or above 80.8% 89.8% 70.3%
.500 or above in Conference 63.3% 75.7% 48.9%
Conference Champion 3.3% 4.9% 1.4%
Last Place in Conference 2.0% 0.6% 3.6%
First Four0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
First Round2.5% 3.3% 1.5%
Second Round0.7% 0.9% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tulane (Away) - 53.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 5
Quad 23 - 55 - 10
Quad 37 - 311 - 14
Quad 47 - 118 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 345   Houston Baptist W 80-72 97%     1 - 0 -9.2 -15.8 +6.1
  Nov 09, 2019 127   @ Texas Arlington L 59-73 47%     1 - 1 -8.8 -7.1 -2.5
  Nov 12, 2019 139   Oral Roberts W 74-67 71%     2 - 1 +5.8 -6.9 +12.4
  Nov 16, 2019 172   Austin Peay W 72-65 77%     3 - 1 +3.7 -4.9 +8.7
  Nov 20, 2019 315   SE Louisiana W 73-66 93%     4 - 1 -5.4 -10.0 +4.1
  Nov 27, 2019 326   South Carolina St. W 78-47 94%     5 - 1 +17.7 +8.9 +14.1
  Nov 30, 2019 142   @ Vanderbilt W 67-58 50%     6 - 1 +13.4 -1.8 +15.8
  Dec 04, 2019 344   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 72-39 96%     7 - 1 +16.3 -0.7 +18.7
  Dec 07, 2019 229   Arkansas St. L 63-66 85%     7 - 2 -9.8 -1.8 -8.7
  Dec 11, 2019 113   Boise St. W 69-56 63%     8 - 2 +14.0 -1.9 +16.3
  Dec 14, 2019 36   @ Arkansas L 79-98 17%     8 - 3 -4.5 +9.1 -12.0
  Dec 21, 2019 118   Colorado St. L 104-111 3OT 53%     8 - 4 -3.4 +3.9 -5.3
  Dec 29, 2019 95   @ Kansas St. L 67-69 36%     8 - 5 +6.0 +3.8 +2.2
  Jan 03, 2020 76   Temple W 70-44 51%     9 - 5 1 - 0 +30.1 +3.4 +26.8
  Jan 08, 2020 47   @ Cincinnati L 44-75 21%     9 - 6 1 - 1 -18.2 -20.7 +2.7
  Jan 11, 2020 34   Houston W 63-61 33%     10 - 6 2 - 1 +10.9 +0.8 +10.3
  Jan 15, 2020 221   @ East Carolina W 65-49 69%     11 - 6 3 - 1 +15.3 -2.9 +19.4
  Jan 18, 2020 160   @ Tulane W 68-67 54%    
  Jan 22, 2020 28   Memphis L 67-72 32%    
  Jan 26, 2020 82   @ Connecticut L 63-68 31%    
  Feb 01, 2020 38   Wichita St. L 63-67 35%    
  Feb 06, 2020 82   Connecticut W 66-65 53%    
  Feb 09, 2020 108   @ Central Florida L 62-65 40%    
  Feb 12, 2020 221   East Carolina W 73-62 85%    
  Feb 15, 2020 117   @ South Florida L 61-63 41%    
  Feb 19, 2020 34   @ Houston L 62-72 17%    
  Feb 22, 2020 83   SMU W 67-66 53%    
  Feb 25, 2020 160   Tulane W 71-64 74%    
  Feb 29, 2020 108   Central Florida W 65-62 62%    
  Mar 04, 2020 76   @ Temple L 61-67 30%    
  Mar 08, 2020 38   @ Wichita St. L 60-70 18%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 9 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 3.3 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 3.0 2.1 0.3 0.0 6.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 5.0 3.3 0.6 0.0 10.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 6.1 5.4 0.9 0.0 13.3 4th
5th 0.4 5.5 7.5 1.6 0.0 14.9 5th
6th 0.1 3.5 8.6 2.4 0.1 14.7 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 7.2 3.8 0.2 12.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 4.2 4.7 0.5 9.7 8th
9th 0.1 1.9 4.4 0.9 7.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 2.7 1.2 0.1 4.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.9 0.1 2.6 11th
12th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 12th
Total 0.1 0.6 2.2 5.9 11.3 16.6 19.2 17.3 13.2 7.8 4.0 1.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 97.9% 0.4    0.3 0.1
14-4 75.4% 1.1    0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 32.1% 1.3    0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1
12-6 6.0% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.3% 3.3 1.3 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.0% 82.6% 82.6% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 82.6%
15-3 0.4% 38.0% 10.9% 27.1% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 30.4%
14-4 1.4% 23.1% 10.2% 12.9% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.1 14.3%
13-5 4.0% 9.3% 6.9% 2.4% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.6 2.6%
12-6 7.8% 5.6% 4.8% 0.8% 11.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 7.4 0.9%
11-7 13.2% 4.0% 3.9% 0.1% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.0 12.7 0.1%
10-8 17.3% 2.4% 2.3% 0.1% 11.9 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 16.9 0.1%
9-9 19.2% 1.6% 1.6% 12.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 18.9
8-10 16.6% 0.5% 0.5% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.5
7-11 11.3% 0.4% 0.4% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.2
6-12 5.9% 5.9
5-13 2.2% 2.2
4-14 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.6
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.7% 2.2% 0.5% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.3 0.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%