California Baptist
Western Athletic
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.2#222
Expected Predictive Rating-4.1#232
Pace73.5#90
Improvement-1.5#329

Offense
Total Offense+0.4#162
First Shot+2.0#111
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#260
Layup/Dunks-1.8#235
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#315
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.8#14
Freethrows-1.0#219
Improvement-1.4#333

Defense
Total Defense-3.6#285
First Shot-3.9#285
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#164
Layups/Dunks-8.1#341
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#154
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#48
Freethrows-0.7#212
Improvement-0.1#204
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.5% 9.9% 7.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.1 15.5
.500 or above 67.3% 72.7% 43.8%
.500 or above in Conference 67.7% 70.2% 56.7%
Conference Champion 8.4% 9.1% 5.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.9% 1.8%
First Four2.8% 2.4% 4.5%
First Round8.6% 9.0% 7.0%
Second Round0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Arkansas (Home) - 81.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 42 - 8
Quad 413 - 515 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 315   Jackson St. W 93-70 82%     1 - 0 +9.9 +2.5 +4.7
  Nov 12, 2019 21   @ Texas L 54-67 5%     1 - 1 +3.1 -9.0 +12.1
  Nov 15, 2019 121   @ California L 62-82 20%     1 - 2 -14.4 -8.8 -5.9
  Nov 22, 2019 308   Central Arkansas W 84-75 81%    
  Nov 27, 2019 148   South Dakota L 76-77 48%    
  Dec 04, 2019 273   UC Riverside W 70-64 69%    
  Dec 07, 2019 95   @ UC Irvine L 67-78 15%    
  Dec 14, 2019 337   Bethune-Cookman W 84-72 86%    
  Dec 18, 2019 343   Southern W 78-64 89%    
  Dec 22, 2019 352   Mississippi Valley W 99-79 97%    
  Jan 02, 2020 283   UT Rio Grande Valley W 77-71 73%    
  Jan 04, 2020 94   New Mexico St. L 71-76 32%    
  Jan 08, 2020 221   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 70-73 40%    
  Jan 11, 2020 170   @ Grand Canyon L 73-79 31%    
  Jan 22, 2020 353   Chicago St. W 89-69 95%    
  Jan 25, 2020 266   UMKC W 75-70 67%    
  Jan 29, 2020 233   @ Utah Valley L 73-75 42%    
  Feb 01, 2020 249   @ Seattle L 74-76 45%    
  Feb 06, 2020 221   Cal St. Bakersfield W 73-70 62%    
  Feb 08, 2020 170   Grand Canyon W 76-75 52%    
  Feb 19, 2020 266   @ UMKC L 72-73 48%    
  Feb 22, 2020 353   @ Chicago St. W 86-72 89%    
  Feb 26, 2020 233   Utah Valley W 76-72 62%    
  Feb 29, 2020 249   Seattle W 77-73 65%    
  Mar 05, 2020 94   @ New Mexico St. L 68-79 17%    
  Mar 07, 2020 283   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 75-74 50%    
Projected Record 15 - 11 9 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.3 0.8 1.8 2.8 1.6 0.9 0.2 8.4 1st
2nd 0.2 3.1 5.5 4.7 1.6 0.3 15.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 3.5 6.9 3.9 0.6 0.0 15.1 3rd
4th 0.6 4.5 7.7 2.8 0.1 15.7 4th
5th 0.8 3.3 7.8 3.0 0.1 15.0 5th
6th 0.8 3.7 5.9 2.5 0.1 13.0 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 2.0 4.6 1.6 0.1 9.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 0.8 2.4 2.8 1.1 0.0 7.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.5 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 3.4 5.6 10.2 11.3 15.2 14.4 13.2 10.3 7.1 4.5 1.9 0.9 0.2 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
15-1 100.0% 0.9    0.8 0.1
14-2 85.0% 1.6    1.2 0.4 0.1
13-3 63.4% 2.8    1.5 1.1 0.3
12-4 25.3% 1.8    0.6 0.7 0.4 0.1
11-5 7.4% 0.8    0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1
10-6 2.0% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 8.4% 8.4 4.3 2.6 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.2% 38.5% 38.5% 12.1 0.1 0.0 0.1
15-1 0.9% 55.6% 55.6% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4
14-2 1.9% 29.5% 29.5% 14.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 1.3
13-3 4.5% 19.6% 19.6% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 3.6
12-4 7.1% 25.7% 25.7% 14.8 0.1 0.2 1.2 0.2 5.3
11-5 10.3% 12.0% 12.0% 15.3 0.1 0.6 0.5 9.1
10-6 13.2% 10.7% 10.7% 15.5 0.0 0.8 0.6 11.8
9-7 14.4% 9.3% 9.3% 15.9 0.1 1.2 13.1
8-8 15.2% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.4 14.7
7-9 11.3% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.0 0.5 10.9
6-10 10.2% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.5 9.7
5-11 5.6% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 5.5
4-12 3.4% 5.6% 5.6% 16.0 0.2 3.2
3-13 1.2% 1.2
2-14 0.5% 0.5
1-15 0.1% 0.1
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 9.5% 9.5% 0.0% 15.2 0.1 0.5 1.2 3.4 4.3 90.5 0.0%