California Baptist
Western Athletic
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.8#182
Expected Predictive Rating+0.9#158
Pace72.8#89
Improvement+1.7#104

Offense
Total Offense+1.7#133
First Shot+2.2#105
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#219
Layup/Dunks-1.2#223
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#166
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#65
Freethrows+0.0#172
Improvement+0.4#149

Defense
Total Defense-2.5#245
First Shot-2.5#248
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#167
Layups/Dunks-7.0#347
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#69
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#61
Freethrows+0.0#187
Improvement+1.3#106
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.5% 14.6% 8.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.9 15.4
.500 or above 99.4% 99.5% 95.8%
.500 or above in Conference 97.0% 97.1% 88.5%
Conference Champion 14.1% 14.3% 3.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.1% 1.1% 2.4%
First Round14.1% 14.1% 7.6%
Second Round0.7% 0.7% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Chicago St. (Home) - 98.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 32 - 43 - 6
Quad 416 - 419 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 328   Jackson St. W 93-70 88%     1 - 0 +9.6 +4.5 +2.4
  Nov 12, 2019 54   @ Texas L 54-67 12%     1 - 1 -0.8 -10.7 +9.8
  Nov 15, 2019 179   @ California L 62-82 39%     1 - 2 -17.8 -8.5 -9.5
  Nov 22, 2019 308   Central Arkansas W 104-98 OT 85%     2 - 2 -5.8 +2.6 -9.6
  Nov 23, 2019 98   Georgia St. L 60-69 39%     2 - 3 -7.0 -15.4 +8.8
  Nov 27, 2019 208   South Dakota L 83-84 69%     2 - 4 -6.8 +0.2 -7.0
  Dec 04, 2019 254   UC Riverside W 79-67 76%     3 - 4 +3.8 +6.9 -2.6
  Dec 07, 2019 112   @ UC Irvine W 68-60 24%     4 - 4 +14.8 +1.3 +13.7
  Dec 14, 2019 301   Bethune-Cookman W 87-68 83%     5 - 4 +8.0 +1.9 +4.7
  Dec 18, 2019 335   Southern W 78-61 90%     6 - 4 +2.5 +7.0 -2.5
  Dec 22, 2019 351   Mississippi Valley W 103-66 97%     7 - 4 +14.2 +4.8 +4.4
  Jan 02, 2020 258   UT Rio Grande Valley W 76-67 77%     8 - 4 1 - 0 +0.6 -2.5 +2.9
  Jan 04, 2020 95   New Mexico St. L 71-86 38%     8 - 5 1 - 1 -12.7 +4.3 -17.9
  Jan 08, 2020 218   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 83-75 49%     9 - 5 2 - 1 +7.5 +9.3 -1.7
  Jan 11, 2020 221   @ Grand Canyon W 61-57 49%     10 - 5 3 - 1 +3.4 -16.3 +19.5
  Jan 22, 2020 353   Chicago St. W 90-67 99%    
  Jan 25, 2020 243   UMKC W 76-69 73%    
  Jan 29, 2020 276   @ Utah Valley W 76-73 59%    
  Feb 01, 2020 197   @ Seattle L 72-73 44%    
  Feb 06, 2020 218   Cal St. Bakersfield W 74-69 70%    
  Feb 08, 2020 221   Grand Canyon W 77-71 71%    
  Feb 19, 2020 243   @ UMKC W 73-72 52%    
  Feb 22, 2020 353   @ Chicago St. W 87-70 95%    
  Feb 26, 2020 276   Utah Valley W 79-70 79%    
  Feb 29, 2020 197   Seattle W 74-70 66%    
  Mar 05, 2020 95   @ New Mexico St. L 65-74 21%    
  Mar 07, 2020 258   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 76-74 56%    
Projected Record 18 - 9 11 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.0 3.6 5.2 3.5 0.8 14.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 7.6 17.0 15.2 6.5 1.2 48.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 5.2 9.5 4.4 0.6 0.0 19.9 3rd
4th 0.0 2.2 5.4 1.7 0.1 9.4 4th
5th 0.5 3.0 1.2 0.1 4.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 0.9 0.0 2.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.4 6.3 12.6 19.0 22.4 19.4 11.7 4.7 0.8 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 0.8    0.8 0.1
14-2 73.9% 3.5    2.3 1.1
13-3 44.7% 5.2    2.6 2.5 0.1
12-4 18.6% 3.6    1.0 2.1 0.5 0.0
11-5 4.3% 1.0    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 14.1% 14.1 6.8 6.3 0.9 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 0.8% 34.3% 34.3% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5
14-2 4.7% 24.4% 24.4% 13.7 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.1 3.5
13-3 11.7% 22.4% 22.4% 14.4 0.2 1.3 1.0 0.1 9.1
12-4 19.4% 18.6% 18.6% 14.8 0.1 0.9 2.2 0.5 15.8
11-5 22.4% 13.6% 13.6% 15.2 0.0 0.4 1.7 1.0 19.3
10-6 19.0% 12.4% 12.4% 15.5 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.3 16.6
9-7 12.6% 7.8% 7.8% 15.7 0.0 0.3 0.7 11.7
8-8 6.3% 5.5% 5.5% 15.9 0.0 0.3 6.0
7-9 2.4% 5.3% 5.3% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.2
6-10 0.6% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.6
5-11 0.1% 0.0 0.1
4-12 0.0% 0.0
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 14.5% 14.5% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.3 6.3 4.0 85.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 12.8 1.8 1.8 26.3 50.9 19.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%