Eastern Kentucky
Ohio Valley
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.3#301
Expected Predictive Rating-6.4#268
Pace82.8#9
Improvement+1.7#112

Offense
Total Offense-3.6#279
First Shot-3.2#279
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#211
Layup/Dunks-7.4#347
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#56
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#114
Freethrows-0.1#176
Improvement+6.8#2

Defense
Total Defense-4.7#309
First Shot-2.0#228
After Offensive Rebounds-2.7#343
Layups/Dunks-1.2#231
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#221
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#79
Freethrows-2.6#318
Improvement-5.1#351
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.7% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 1.7% 2.5% 0.3%
.500 or above in Conference 83.8% 92.0% 70.2%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
First Round0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee Martin (Home) - 62.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 32 - 72 - 11
Quad 410 - 812 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 156   Chattanooga W 79-68 29%     1 - 0 +8.3 -7.0 +13.8
  Nov 08, 2019 12   @ Kentucky L 49-91 2%     1 - 1 -24.2 -23.6 +6.6
  Nov 15, 2019 103   Western Kentucky L 71-79 17%     1 - 2 -6.2 -11.5 +6.2
  Nov 22, 2019 166   Florida International L 70-89 22%     1 - 3 -19.1 -15.3 -1.0
  Nov 23, 2019 306   Cleveland St. L 51-65 51%     1 - 4 -22.6 -25.8 +3.6
  Dec 03, 2019 319   @ South Carolina Upstate L 67-79 44%     1 - 5 -18.8 -19.6 +2.8
  Dec 08, 2019 126   @ Northern Kentucky L 57-76 11%     1 - 6 -13.7 -12.6 -1.3
  Dec 14, 2019 7   @ Louisville L 67-99 1%     1 - 7 -12.8 +5.3 -18.8
  Dec 19, 2019 157   @ Marshall L 72-90 14%     1 - 8 -14.8 -12.0 +0.5
  Dec 21, 2019 273   Charleston Southern L 69-76 53%     1 - 9 -16.1 -11.8 -4.1
  Dec 28, 2019 209   @ East Carolina L 74-82 22%     1 - 10 -8.0 -11.4 +4.8
  Jan 02, 2020 339   Tennessee Tech W 74-59 75%     2 - 10 1 - 0 -0.4 -4.0 +3.7
  Jan 04, 2020 230   Jacksonville St. L 71-80 45%     2 - 11 1 - 1 -15.9 -6.2 -9.4
  Jan 09, 2020 228   Eastern Illinois W 77-74 44%     3 - 11 2 - 1 -3.7 -2.3 -1.6
  Jan 11, 2020 338   SIU Edwardsville W 78-72 73%     4 - 11 3 - 1 -8.6 -3.1 -5.6
  Jan 16, 2020 99   @ Belmont L 56-87 7%     4 - 12 3 - 2 -23.0 -15.9 -5.9
  Jan 18, 2020 268   @ Tennessee St. W 92-88 30%     5 - 12 4 - 2 +1.3 +11.2 -10.1
  Jan 23, 2020 230   @ Jacksonville St. W 81-77 25%     6 - 12 5 - 2 +2.9 +9.7 -6.8
  Jan 25, 2020 339   @ Tennessee Tech W 80-74 55%     7 - 12 6 - 2 -3.6 +1.9 -5.6
  Jan 30, 2020 304   Tennessee Martin W 87-84 62%    
  Feb 01, 2020 332   Southeast Missouri St. W 79-74 69%    
  Feb 06, 2020 228   @ Eastern Illinois L 74-81 24%    
  Feb 08, 2020 338   @ SIU Edwardsville W 79-78 52%    
  Feb 13, 2020 313   @ Morehead St. L 75-77 41%    
  Feb 15, 2020 150   @ Austin Peay L 75-87 13%    
  Feb 20, 2020 268   Tennessee St. W 81-80 51%    
  Feb 22, 2020 99   Belmont L 76-86 16%    
  Feb 27, 2020 120   @ Murray St. L 72-86 9%    
  Feb 29, 2020 313   Morehead St. W 78-74 64%    
Projected Record 11 - 18 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.6 0.0 1.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.6 3.7 2.4 0.3 8.0 3rd
4th 0.0 2.3 10.1 15.0 7.0 0.9 0.0 35.3 4th
5th 1.1 8.2 11.0 4.2 0.3 24.8 5th
6th 0.1 4.2 8.7 3.4 0.3 16.8 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 4.5 2.0 0.1 7.9 7th
8th 0.2 2.1 1.5 0.1 3.9 8th
9th 0.3 0.7 0.1 1.1 9th
10th 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.6 4.2 11.5 21.4 24.8 21.1 11.2 4.2 1.0 0.1 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 71.4% 0.1    0.0 0.1
14-4 8.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.3% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.1% 9.5% 9.5% 15.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 1.0% 7.8% 7.8% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.9
13-5 4.2% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.1 4.1
12-6 11.2% 1.3% 1.3% 15.9 0.0 0.1 11.0
11-7 21.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 21.0
10-8 24.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 24.7
9-9 21.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 21.4
8-10 11.5% 11.5
7-11 4.2% 4.2
6-12 0.6% 0.6
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 15.9 0.1 0.5 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%