Kentucky
Southeastern
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.7#14
Expected Predictive Rating+12.9#32
Pace68.7#198
Improvement+2.5#75

Offense
Total Offense+7.0#26
First Shot+6.8#21
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#149
Layup/Dunks+4.0#44
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#37
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.1#322
Freethrows+4.3#4
Improvement+1.9#77

Defense
Total Defense+7.7#23
First Shot+7.1#22
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#126
Layups/Dunks+3.4#54
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#238
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#98
Freethrows+2.7#38
Improvement+0.6#155
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.5% 0.6% 0.0%
#1 Seed 3.9% 4.4% 0.9%
Top 2 Seed 12.1% 13.7% 3.7%
Top 4 Seed 40.5% 44.0% 22.2%
Top 6 Seed 68.5% 71.8% 50.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 97.1% 97.9% 93.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 96.2% 97.2% 91.4%
Average Seed 5.2 5.0 6.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 99.2% 99.6% 97.0%
Conference Champion 39.5% 43.0% 20.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.9% 0.8% 1.9%
First Round96.7% 97.5% 92.0%
Second Round72.4% 74.3% 62.8%
Sweet Sixteen39.8% 41.6% 30.6%
Elite Eight19.5% 20.6% 14.0%
Final Four9.5% 10.1% 6.5%
Championship Game4.4% 4.8% 2.4%
National Champion2.0% 2.2% 1.1%

Next Game: Georgia (Home) - 84.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 34 - 3
Quad 1b3 - 28 - 5
Quad 25 - 213 - 7
Quad 35 - 118 - 8
Quad 46 - 124 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 4   Michigan St. W 69-62 37%     1 - 0 +25.0 +2.2 +22.7
  Nov 08, 2019 315   Eastern Kentucky W 91-49 99%     2 - 0 +29.8 -3.4 +25.9
  Nov 12, 2019 252   Evansville L 64-67 97%     2 - 1 -11.0 -12.4 +1.4
  Nov 18, 2019 276   Utah Valley W 82-74 98%     3 - 1 -1.2 +2.1 -3.7
  Nov 22, 2019 269   Mount St. Mary's W 82-62 98%     4 - 1 +11.0 +7.1 +4.0
  Nov 24, 2019 279   Lamar W 81-56 98%     5 - 1 +15.6 +9.4 +7.3
  Nov 29, 2019 169   UAB W 69-58 94%     6 - 1 +8.1 +3.0 +6.1
  Dec 07, 2019 309   Fairleigh Dickinson W 83-52 98%     7 - 1 +19.2 +3.9 +16.4
  Dec 14, 2019 85   Georgia Tech W 67-53 85%     8 - 1 +17.5 +1.6 +16.5
  Dec 18, 2019 115   Utah L 66-69 85%     8 - 2 +0.8 -4.9 +5.5
  Dec 21, 2019 13   Ohio St. L 65-71 50%     8 - 3 +8.7 +4.1 +4.2
  Dec 28, 2019 6   Louisville W 78-70 OT 53%     9 - 3 +21.9 +13.0 +9.0
  Jan 04, 2020 63   Missouri W 71-59 82%     10 - 3 1 - 0 +17.0 +6.4 +11.4
  Jan 07, 2020 73   @ Georgia W 78-69 67%     11 - 3 2 - 0 +19.1 +6.4 +12.4
  Jan 11, 2020 35   Alabama W 76-67 72%     12 - 3 3 - 0 +17.7 +2.6 +14.6
  Jan 15, 2020 92   @ South Carolina L 78-81 72%     12 - 4 3 - 1 +5.8 +3.8 +2.3
  Jan 18, 2020 39   @ Arkansas W 73-66 52%     13 - 4 4 - 1 +21.1 +7.0 +13.8
  Jan 21, 2020 73   Georgia W 77-67 84%    
  Jan 25, 2020 17   @ Texas Tech L 64-66 42%    
  Jan 29, 2020 150   Vanderbilt W 80-63 94%    
  Feb 01, 2020 26   @ Auburn L 70-71 47%    
  Feb 04, 2020 43   Mississippi St. W 72-65 74%    
  Feb 08, 2020 52   @ Tennessee W 66-64 59%    
  Feb 11, 2020 150   @ Vanderbilt W 77-66 85%    
  Feb 15, 2020 102   Mississippi W 76-63 89%    
  Feb 18, 2020 32   @ LSU L 74-75 49%    
  Feb 22, 2020 19   Florida W 68-64 64%    
  Feb 25, 2020 132   @ Texas A&M W 68-58 81%    
  Feb 29, 2020 26   Auburn W 73-68 68%    
  Mar 03, 2020 52   Tennessee W 69-61 78%    
  Mar 07, 2020 19   @ Florida L 65-67 42%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 13 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 4.7 12.5 12.9 7.1 1.7 39.5 1st
2nd 0.2 3.9 10.9 7.4 1.4 0.1 23.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.7 7.2 5.2 0.6 0.0 14.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 4.0 4.2 0.6 0.0 9.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 3.5 0.8 0.0 5.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.1 1.0 0.0 3.5 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.1 1.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.0 5.1 10.4 16.7 21.3 20.6 14.4 7.2 1.7 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 1.7    1.7 0.0
16-2 98.7% 7.1    6.7 0.4 0.0
15-3 90.2% 12.9    9.8 3.0 0.2
14-4 61.0% 12.5    5.4 5.6 1.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 22.2% 4.7    0.8 1.9 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.8% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 39.5% 39.5 24.3 11.0 3.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 1.7% 100.0% 41.5% 58.5% 1.7 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-2 7.2% 100.0% 35.7% 64.3% 2.2 1.8 2.7 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 14.4% 100.0% 31.8% 68.2% 3.1 1.1 3.3 4.9 3.6 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 20.6% 100.0% 27.3% 72.7% 4.2 0.2 1.3 4.6 6.1 4.9 2.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 21.3% 99.7% 23.7% 76.0% 5.4 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.6 5.7 5.2 3.4 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.6%
12-6 16.7% 98.8% 18.6% 80.1% 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.4 3.7 4.2 3.2 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.2 98.5%
11-7 10.4% 95.0% 12.1% 83.0% 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.1 2.7 2.0 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.5 94.3%
10-8 5.1% 84.7% 9.0% 75.7% 8.9 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.0 0.8 83.2%
9-9 2.0% 63.3% 5.0% 58.3% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.7 61.3%
8-10 0.6% 30.4% 3.4% 27.0% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 27.9%
7-11 0.2% 9.0% 2.6% 6.4% 11.0 0.0 0.1 6.6%
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 97.1% 23.4% 73.7% 5.2 3.9 8.2 13.4 15.0 14.9 13.1 11.1 8.4 4.8 2.9 1.5 0.1 2.9 96.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.2 78.5 20.9 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.4 60.3 38.1 1.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 1.6 43.7 50.5 5.8