Kentucky
Southeastern
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+18.6#5
Expected Predictive Rating+10.5#51
Pace69.6#179
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.2#23
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+11.4#2
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 6.2% 6.2% 0.4%
#1 Seed 26.1% 26.2% 8.9%
Top 2 Seed 47.1% 47.2% 20.2%
Top 4 Seed 72.4% 72.6% 34.8%
Top 6 Seed 85.9% 86.1% 54.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 97.6% 97.7% 74.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 96.4% 96.6% 68.0%
Average Seed 3.3 3.3 4.7
.500 or above 99.4% 99.5% 85.8%
.500 or above in Conference 97.1% 97.2% 71.7%
Conference Champion 49.3% 49.4% 23.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 2.8%
First Four0.6% 0.6% 2.8%
First Round97.4% 97.5% 74.5%
Second Round85.5% 85.6% 60.3%
Sweet Sixteen59.4% 59.4% 43.3%
Elite Eight36.9% 37.0% 17.0%
Final Four20.9% 21.0% 8.5%
Championship Game11.4% 11.5% 5.7%
National Champion6.5% 6.5% 2.8%

Next Game: Utah Valley (Home) - 99.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 45 - 4
Quad 1b4 - 29 - 5
Quad 27 - 116 - 7
Quad 34 - 120 - 8
Quad 45 - 026 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 1   Michigan St. W 69-62 42%     1 - 0 +27.7 +3.9 +23.6
  Nov 08, 2019 276   Eastern Kentucky W 91-49 99%     2 - 0 +33.2 -2.8 +28.6
  Nov 12, 2019 128   Evansville L 64-67 95%     2 - 1 -3.9 -8.6 +4.7
  Nov 18, 2019 274   Utah Valley W 83-56 99.5%   
  Nov 22, 2019 268   Mount St. Mary's W 80-53 99%    
  Nov 24, 2019 282   Lamar W 82-54 99.5%   
  Nov 29, 2019 152   UAB W 78-57 97%    
  Dec 07, 2019 250   Fairleigh Dickinson W 81-55 99%    
  Dec 14, 2019 61   Georgia Tech W 73-59 89%    
  Dec 18, 2019 81   Utah W 80-68 86%    
  Dec 21, 2019 9   Ohio St. W 66-64 56%    
  Dec 28, 2019 3   Louisville W 71-69 57%    
  Jan 04, 2020 44   Missouri W 71-60 84%    
  Jan 07, 2020 66   @ Georgia W 78-70 74%    
  Jan 11, 2020 52   Alabama W 80-68 86%    
  Jan 15, 2020 63   @ South Carolina W 74-66 74%    
  Jan 18, 2020 31   @ Arkansas W 73-70 61%    
  Jan 21, 2020 66   Georgia W 81-67 88%    
  Jan 25, 2020 11   @ Texas Tech L 68-69 48%    
  Jan 29, 2020 120   Vanderbilt W 78-59 95%    
  Feb 01, 2020 33   @ Auburn W 73-69 62%    
  Feb 04, 2020 56   Mississippi St. W 73-60 85%    
  Feb 08, 2020 28   @ Tennessee W 72-69 61%    
  Feb 11, 2020 120   @ Vanderbilt W 75-62 87%    
  Feb 15, 2020 50   Mississippi W 76-64 84%    
  Feb 18, 2020 27   @ LSU W 78-75 61%    
  Feb 22, 2020 22   Florida W 67-59 76%    
  Feb 25, 2020 74   @ Texas A&M W 73-64 76%    
  Feb 29, 2020 33   Auburn W 76-66 79%    
  Mar 03, 2020 28   Tennessee W 75-66 78%    
  Mar 07, 2020 22   @ Florida W 64-62 58%    
Projected Record 24 - 7 14 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.8 8.8 12.8 12.5 8.5 3.5 49.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.7 6.4 6.6 3.0 0.6 19.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 4.4 3.5 1.0 0.2 10.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.2 3.0 0.5 0.0 7.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 1.9 0.5 0.0 4.0 5th
6th 0.9 1.6 0.7 0.0 3.2 6th
7th 0.2 1.2 0.6 0.1 2.2 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.1 1.4 8th
9th 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.0 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.9 1.4 3.1 4.5 7.8 11.0 13.2 16.5 16.0 13.1 8.5 3.5 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 3.5    3.5
17-1 100.0% 8.5    8.3 0.2
16-2 95.5% 12.5    11.0 1.4 0.1
15-3 80.1% 12.8    9.1 3.4 0.3
14-4 53.6% 8.8    4.0 3.6 1.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 21.2% 2.8    0.6 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.0
12-6 3.6% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 49.3% 49.3 36.5 9.9 2.4 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 3.5% 100.0% 68.5% 31.5% 1.1 3.1 0.4 0.0 100.0%
17-1 8.5% 100.0% 53.3% 46.7% 1.3 6.4 1.9 0.2 100.0%
16-2 13.1% 100.0% 46.7% 53.3% 1.5 7.4 4.5 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 16.0% 100.0% 42.7% 57.3% 2.0 5.9 6.3 2.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-4 16.5% 100.0% 33.9% 66.1% 2.7 2.7 5.3 5.0 2.2 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 13.2% 100.0% 26.8% 73.2% 3.7 0.6 2.1 3.6 3.5 2.1 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 11.0% 100.0% 20.3% 79.7% 4.9 0.1 0.5 1.8 2.5 2.3 1.8 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
11-7 7.8% 98.7% 13.7% 85.0% 6.1 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.6 1.6 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 98.5%
10-8 4.5% 97.2% 11.5% 85.7% 7.2 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 96.8%
9-9 3.1% 87.5% 8.7% 78.8% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.4 86.3%
8-10 1.4% 61.9% 5.9% 56.0% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 59.6%
7-11 0.9% 26.8% 3.1% 23.7% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 24.5%
6-12 0.3% 4.1% 4.1% 9.0 0.0 0.3 4.1%
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 97.6% 33.2% 64.5% 3.3 26.1 21.0 14.7 10.6 7.9 5.6 4.8 2.9 1.8 1.2 0.9 0.1 2.4 96.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 1.1 91.1 8.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 100.0