Idaho St.
Big Sky
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.3#313
Expected Predictive Rating-6.2#262
Pace65.3#287
Improvement-1.1#223

Offense
Total Offense-4.3#292
First Shot-3.6#291
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#231
Layup/Dunks-1.4#228
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#192
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#217
Freethrows-0.7#223
Improvement-0.9#233

Defense
Total Defense-5.0#314
First Shot-3.5#296
After Offensive Rebounds-1.5#295
Layups/Dunks-11.0#353
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#236
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.3#4
Freethrows+0.9#134
Improvement-0.1#196
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.8% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0.6% 1.9% 0.3%
.500 or above in Conference 8.5% 21.1% 5.5%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 24.1% 10.3% 27.4%
First Four0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
First Round0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Portland St. (Away) - 19.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 30 - 3
Quad 33 - 93 - 12
Quad 45 - 88 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 275   @ Wyoming L 40-54 29%     0 - 1 -17.5 -22.8 +2.2
  Nov 07, 2019 150   @ Air Force W 89-79 11%     1 - 1 +14.0 +13.9 +0.2
  Nov 17, 2019 132   @ Washington St. L 61-72 10%     1 - 2 -6.0 -4.8 -1.9
  Nov 22, 2019 146   @ Santa Clara L 65-78 11%     1 - 3 -8.8 -11.0 +3.3
  Dec 06, 2019 149   @ Pepperdine L 65-77 11%     1 - 4 -8.0 -12.3 +4.9
  Dec 16, 2019 162   UC Santa Barbara L 68-74 OT 26%     1 - 5 -8.5 -8.7 +0.3
  Dec 21, 2019 164   @ Pacific L 66-77 12%     1 - 6 -7.7 +1.1 -9.5
  Dec 28, 2019 319   Idaho W 62-60 63%     2 - 6 1 - 0 -10.6 -8.9 -1.5
  Dec 30, 2019 188   Eastern Washington W 75-69 31%     3 - 6 2 - 0 +1.8 -1.9 +3.7
  Jan 04, 2020 200   @ Sacramento St. L 49-68 18%     3 - 7 2 - 1 -18.7 -9.0 -14.0
  Jan 09, 2020 176   Southern Utah L 55-71 29%     3 - 8 2 - 2 -19.5 -10.2 -11.2
  Jan 11, 2020 243   @ Northern Arizona W 71-67 23%     4 - 8 3 - 2 +2.3 -4.9 +7.2
  Jan 16, 2020 274   Weber St. L 68-76 OT 50%     4 - 9 3 - 3 -17.3 -15.4 -1.2
  Jan 18, 2020 213   @ Portland St. L 68-77 19%    
  Jan 23, 2020 167   Montana L 63-69 27%    
  Jan 25, 2020 236   Montana St. L 66-68 42%    
  Jan 30, 2020 122   @ Northern Colorado L 59-74 8%    
  Feb 01, 2020 176   @ Southern Utah L 60-72 14%    
  Feb 06, 2020 243   Northern Arizona L 69-71 44%    
  Feb 08, 2020 200   Sacramento St. L 59-63 37%    
  Feb 13, 2020 236   @ Montana St. L 63-71 23%    
  Feb 15, 2020 167   @ Montana L 60-72 13%    
  Feb 22, 2020 122   Northern Colorado L 62-71 20%    
  Feb 27, 2020 213   Portland St. L 71-74 39%    
  Mar 02, 2020 274   @ Weber St. L 64-70 29%    
  Mar 05, 2020 188   @ Eastern Washington L 70-81 16%    
  Mar 07, 2020 319   @ Idaho L 65-67 41%    
Projected Record 8 - 19 7 - 13





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.9 3rd
4th 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.3 0.0 1.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 1.9 0.9 0.1 3.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 3.5 1.8 0.2 6.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 4.5 3.7 0.5 0.0 9.7 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 6.4 6.3 1.3 0.0 15.5 8th
9th 0.2 2.3 8.3 8.7 2.6 0.1 22.1 9th
10th 0.4 4.1 9.7 9.3 2.8 0.2 26.5 10th
11th 2.4 5.1 4.1 1.2 0.1 12.9 11th
Total 2.8 9.4 16.1 20.3 18.9 14.5 9.5 4.9 2.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 60.0% 0.0    0.0
14-6 44.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 9.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.5% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0
14-6 0.1% 11.1% 11.1% 15.0 0.0 0.1
13-7 0.3% 5.6% 5.6% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.3
12-8 0.9% 2.1% 2.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.9
11-9 2.3% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 2.3
10-10 4.9% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.1 4.8
9-11 9.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 9.4
8-12 14.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 14.4
7-13 18.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 18.9
6-14 20.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 20.3
5-15 16.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.1
4-16 9.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.4
3-17 2.8% 2.8
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.4 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.3%