Idaho St.
Big Sky
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.5#311
Expected Predictive Rating-3.0#216
Pace65.3#292
Improvement+0.2#150

Offense
Total Offense-2.7#255
First Shot-2.7#255
After Offensive Rebound+0.1#167
Layup/Dunks-2.4#257
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#285
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#141
Freethrows+1.0#121
Improvement+0.1#138

Defense
Total Defense-6.8#336
First Shot-6.5#332
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#199
Layups/Dunks-12.1#353
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#285
3 Pt Jumpshots+12.0#2
Freethrows-4.3#331
Improvement+0.1#173
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.5% 2.6% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.4 15.7
.500 or above 11.3% 28.1% 9.5%
.500 or above in Conference 21.1% 35.3% 19.6%
Conference Champion 1.1% 2.4% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 25.2% 15.1% 26.2%
First Four0.8% 0.7% 0.8%
First Round1.1% 2.1% 1.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Santa Clara (Away) - 9.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 32 - 72 - 10
Quad 47 - 109 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 276   @ Wyoming L 40-54 27%     0 - 1 -17.1 -21.0 +0.8
  Nov 07, 2019 192   @ Air Force W 89-79 16%     1 - 1 +11.3 +15.7 -4.4
  Nov 17, 2019 141   @ Washington St. L 61-72 10%     1 - 2 -6.6 -6.7 -0.5
  Nov 22, 2019 140   @ Santa Clara L 63-77 10%    
  Dec 06, 2019 118   @ Pepperdine L 69-84 8%    
  Dec 16, 2019 169   UC Santa Barbara L 66-72 29%    
  Dec 21, 2019 246   Pacific L 64-66 43%    
  Dec 28, 2019 334   Idaho W 70-65 69%    
  Dec 30, 2019 190   Eastern Washington L 71-76 33%    
  Jan 04, 2020 251   @ Sacramento St. L 64-72 25%    
  Jan 09, 2020 191   Southern Utah L 68-73 34%    
  Jan 11, 2020 292   @ Northern Arizona L 70-75 33%    
  Jan 16, 2020 277   Weber St. L 73-74 49%    
  Jan 18, 2020 286   @ Portland St. L 72-78 31%    
  Jan 23, 2020 198   Montana L 67-71 36%    
  Jan 25, 2020 203   Montana St. L 68-72 36%    
  Jan 30, 2020 182   @ Northern Colorado L 62-73 16%    
  Feb 01, 2020 191   @ Southern Utah L 65-76 18%    
  Feb 06, 2020 292   Northern Arizona W 73-72 52%    
  Feb 08, 2020 251   Sacramento St. L 67-69 44%    
  Feb 13, 2020 203   @ Montana St. L 65-75 19%    
  Feb 15, 2020 198   @ Montana L 64-74 20%    
  Feb 22, 2020 182   Northern Colorado L 65-70 33%    
  Feb 27, 2020 286   Portland St. W 76-75 51%    
  Mar 02, 2020 277   @ Weber St. L 70-76 30%    
  Mar 05, 2020 190   @ Eastern Washington L 68-79 18%    
  Mar 07, 2020 334   @ Idaho L 67-68 48%    
Projected Record 9 - 18 7 - 13





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 3.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 1.8 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 4.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 2.5 2.2 0.6 0.1 6.2 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 3.2 3.0 0.8 0.0 8.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.7 3.9 1.0 0.1 10.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.8 4.5 1.4 0.1 13.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 3.1 5.7 4.8 1.5 0.1 16.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.2 4.7 6.0 3.9 1.1 0.1 18.5 10th
11th 0.6 2.0 3.9 4.8 3.8 1.8 0.5 0.0 17.4 11th
Total 0.6 2.0 4.4 7.0 9.4 11.2 12.1 12.1 10.7 9.3 7.2 5.3 3.6 2.3 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 87.9% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
16-4 75.8% 0.2    0.2 0.1 0.0
15-5 44.9% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 19.4% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 4.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.1% 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.0% 25.0% 25.0% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 27.3% 27.3% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.3% 17.9% 17.9% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
15-5 0.8% 15.1% 15.1% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.6
14-6 1.4% 12.7% 12.7% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.3
13-7 2.3% 8.8% 8.8% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.1
12-8 3.6% 5.6% 5.6% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.4
11-9 5.3% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.0 0.2 5.1
10-10 7.2% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 0.2 7.0
9-11 9.3% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 9.2
8-12 10.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 10.6
7-13 12.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 12.1
6-14 12.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.1
5-15 11.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.2
4-16 9.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.4
3-17 7.0% 7.0
2-18 4.4% 4.4
1-19 2.0% 2.0
0-20 0.6% 0.6
Total 100% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 98.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%