Oregon
Pac-12
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.6#19
Expected Predictive Rating+16.2#15
Pace62.8#326
Improvement-5.1#337

Offense
Total Offense+8.4#11
First Shot+7.1#16
After Offensive Rebound+1.3#82
Layup/Dunks+5.3#20
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#194
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#80
Freethrows-0.6#211
Improvement-4.7#345

Defense
Total Defense+5.2#57
First Shot+5.7#34
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#217
Layups/Dunks+6.0#14
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#181
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#259
Freethrows+1.4#98
Improvement-0.4#208
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.1%
#1 Seed 4.2% 4.6% 0.7%
Top 2 Seed 14.2% 15.4% 4.6%
Top 4 Seed 45.8% 48.6% 22.6%
Top 6 Seed 77.1% 79.4% 58.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.5% 99.6% 98.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.4% 99.5% 98.3%
Average Seed 4.9 4.7 6.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.5% 99.7% 97.7%
Conference Champion 38.2% 40.4% 19.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.6%
First Round99.4% 99.5% 98.3%
Second Round73.8% 74.9% 64.1%
Sweet Sixteen37.9% 38.8% 30.4%
Elite Eight16.5% 17.0% 12.3%
Final Four7.4% 7.6% 5.4%
Championship Game2.9% 3.0% 2.1%
National Champion1.1% 1.1% 0.9%

Next Game: UCLA (Home) - 89.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 33 - 3
Quad 1b4 - 17 - 5
Quad 26 - 214 - 7
Quad 37 - 121 - 8
Quad 45 - 025 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 137   Fresno St. W 71-57 91%     1 - 0 +12.8 -2.8 +15.6
  Nov 09, 2019 108   Boise St. W 106-75 87%     2 - 0 +32.5 +26.2 +4.4
  Nov 12, 2019 49   Memphis W 82-74 64%     3 - 0 +18.1 +11.6 +5.9
  Nov 17, 2019 120   Texas Arlington W 67-47 89%     4 - 0 +20.2 +0.3 +21.5
  Nov 22, 2019 31   Houston W 78-66 66%     5 - 0 +21.4 +16.6 +6.0
  Nov 27, 2019 10   Seton Hall W 71-69 43%     6 - 0 +17.5 +11.3 +6.4
  Nov 28, 2019 3   Gonzaga L 72-73 OT 30%     6 - 1 +18.2 +3.6 +14.7
  Nov 29, 2019 59   North Carolina L 74-78 69%     6 - 2 +4.4 +10.6 -6.5
  Dec 07, 2019 172   Hawaii W 89-64 93%     7 - 2 +21.6 +20.5 +2.7
  Dec 14, 2019 30   @ Michigan W 71-70 OT 43%     8 - 2 +16.3 +7.0 +9.4
  Dec 18, 2019 176   Montana W 81-48 94%     9 - 2 +29.4 +3.4 +24.2
  Dec 21, 2019 244   Texas Southern W 84-78 96%     10 - 2 -1.5 +5.7 -7.3
  Dec 29, 2019 342   Alabama St. W 98-59 99%     11 - 2 +23.1 +20.7 +3.0
  Jan 02, 2020 23   @ Colorado L 65-74 41%     11 - 3 0 - 1 +6.9 -0.4 +7.7
  Jan 04, 2020 109   @ Utah W 69-64 74%     12 - 3 1 - 1 +12.0 +3.8 +8.6
  Jan 09, 2020 11   Arizona W 74-73 OT 55%     13 - 3 2 - 1 +13.2 +5.6 +7.6
  Jan 11, 2020 67   Arizona St. W 78-69 80%     14 - 3 3 - 1 +13.6 +13.6 +0.5
  Jan 16, 2020 127   @ Washington St. L 61-72 78%     14 - 4 3 - 2 -5.5 -5.7 -0.3
  Jan 18, 2020 48   @ Washington W 64-61 OT 52%     15 - 4 4 - 2 +16.1 +4.0 +12.3
  Jan 23, 2020 58   USC W 79-70 2OT 78%     16 - 4 5 - 2 +14.5 +2.1 +11.5
  Jan 26, 2020 117   UCLA W 73-60 89%    
  Jan 30, 2020 184   @ California W 70-58 86%    
  Feb 01, 2020 44   @ Stanford W 66-65 50%    
  Feb 08, 2020 84   @ Oregon St. W 71-67 65%    
  Feb 13, 2020 23   Colorado W 68-64 63%    
  Feb 16, 2020 109   Utah W 77-64 87%    
  Feb 20, 2020 67   @ Arizona St. W 71-68 60%    
  Feb 22, 2020 11   @ Arizona L 68-72 33%    
  Feb 27, 2020 84   Oregon St. W 74-64 83%    
  Mar 05, 2020 184   California W 72-55 94%    
  Mar 07, 2020 44   Stanford W 68-62 71%    
Projected Record 24 - 7 13 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.4 8.1 15.1 10.8 2.7 38.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 7.2 12.9 5.2 0.5 26.6 2nd
3rd 0.5 4.9 9.2 4.4 0.2 19.2 3rd
4th 0.2 2.3 5.0 2.3 0.2 9.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.2 1.2 0.1 4.2 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 0.4 0.1 1.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.8 5.5 12.0 20.2 25.6 20.5 11.2 2.7 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 2.7    2.7 0.0
15-3 95.8% 10.8    9.0 1.8 0.0
14-4 73.5% 15.1    8.3 5.8 0.9 0.1
13-5 31.8% 8.1    2.2 3.6 2.0 0.4
12-6 7.1% 1.4    0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 38.2% 38.2 22.4 11.6 3.4 0.7 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 2.7% 100.0% 35.8% 64.2% 1.7 1.1 1.2 0.4 0.0 100.0%
15-3 11.2% 100.0% 33.4% 66.6% 2.4 2.2 4.3 3.2 1.3 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-4 20.5% 100.0% 27.8% 72.2% 3.4 0.8 3.6 6.4 6.4 2.5 0.7 0.1 100.0%
13-5 25.6% 100.0% 23.4% 76.5% 4.7 0.1 0.9 3.3 7.2 7.9 4.8 1.3 0.3 0.0 99.9%
12-6 20.2% 99.9% 19.8% 80.1% 5.8 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.3 4.8 6.3 4.0 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-7 12.0% 99.4% 14.7% 84.7% 7.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 2.3 3.6 3.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.3%
10-8 5.5% 97.6% 9.1% 88.5% 8.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.6 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.1 97.4%
9-9 1.8% 92.3% 5.0% 87.3% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.1 91.9%
8-10 0.5% 82.6% 4.3% 78.3% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 81.8%
7-11 0.1% 0.0 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.5% 22.8% 76.7% 4.9 4.2 10.0 14.1 17.5 16.8 14.6 10.1 6.8 3.8 1.3 0.4 0.5 99.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 1.4 64.3 33.7 2.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5% 100.0% 1.7 40.7 48.1 11.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8% 100.0% 1.9 30.4 46.8 20.3 2.5