Oregon
Pac-12
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+15.8#12
Expected Predictive Rating+21.8#6
Pace68.5#208
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.5#20
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+8.4#14
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 2.7% 2.9% 1.1%
#1 Seed 13.6% 14.2% 5.5%
Top 2 Seed 29.5% 30.7% 13.3%
Top 4 Seed 54.0% 55.5% 32.1%
Top 6 Seed 71.5% 72.9% 51.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 95.0% 95.5% 87.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 92.7% 93.4% 84.0%
Average Seed 4.5 4.5 5.9
.500 or above 99.4% 99.6% 97.4%
.500 or above in Conference 95.8% 96.1% 91.6%
Conference Champion 42.8% 43.7% 29.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four2.5% 2.4% 4.1%
First Round93.7% 94.3% 85.4%
Second Round72.7% 73.7% 58.6%
Sweet Sixteen42.9% 43.9% 29.2%
Elite Eight22.3% 23.0% 12.8%
Final Four10.9% 11.3% 5.2%
Championship Game5.3% 5.4% 2.6%
National Champion2.4% 2.5% 1.0%

Next Game: Texas Arlington (Home) - 93.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 32 - 3
Quad 1b3 - 26 - 4
Quad 27 - 213 - 6
Quad 37 - 120 - 7
Quad 45 - 025 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 126   Fresno St. W 71-57 93%     1 - 0 +13.2 -0.7 +14.0
  Nov 09, 2019 105   Boise St. W 106-75 91%     2 - 0 +32.0 +24.9 +5.2
  Nov 12, 2019 19   Memphis W 82-74 57%     3 - 0 +21.9 +8.8 +12.6
  Nov 17, 2019 117   Texas Arlington W 76-60 94%    
  Nov 22, 2019 32   Houston W 72-65 73%    
  Nov 27, 2019 20   Seton Hall W 73-71 57%    
  Dec 07, 2019 209   Hawaii W 80-58 98%    
  Dec 14, 2019 29   @ Michigan W 67-66 51%    
  Dec 18, 2019 204   Montana W 80-59 97%    
  Dec 21, 2019 267   Texas Southern W 89-65 99%    
  Dec 29, 2019 326   Alabama St. W 83-54 99.6%   
  Jan 02, 2020 36   @ Colorado W 72-71 54%    
  Jan 04, 2020 83   @ Utah W 78-72 71%    
  Jan 09, 2020 18   Arizona W 72-68 65%    
  Jan 11, 2020 74   Arizona St. W 80-69 84%    
  Jan 16, 2020 133   @ Washington St. W 79-68 83%    
  Jan 18, 2020 46   @ Washington W 67-64 59%    
  Jan 23, 2020 59   USC W 78-68 81%    
  Jan 26, 2020 89   UCLA W 78-65 87%    
  Jan 30, 2020 137   @ California W 76-65 83%    
  Feb 01, 2020 95   @ Stanford W 74-67 74%    
  Feb 08, 2020 70   @ Oregon St. W 72-67 67%    
  Feb 13, 2020 36   Colorado W 75-68 72%    
  Feb 16, 2020 83   Utah W 81-69 85%    
  Feb 20, 2020 74   @ Arizona St. W 77-72 68%    
  Feb 22, 2020 18   @ Arizona L 69-71 45%    
  Feb 27, 2020 70   Oregon St. W 75-64 83%    
  Mar 05, 2020 137   California W 79-62 92%    
  Mar 07, 2020 95   Stanford W 77-64 87%    
Projected Record 23 - 6 13 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.6 6.9 11.2 11.3 7.5 2.9 42.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.1 6.8 7.3 3.7 0.7 0.0 22.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.5 5.3 4.0 1.2 0.1 13.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.6 2.4 0.6 0.0 8.4 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 2.4 1.5 0.3 0.0 5.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 1.5 1.0 0.2 3.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 1.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.1 3.6 5.7 8.2 11.5 14.0 15.5 15.0 11.9 7.5 2.9 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 2.9    2.9
17-1 99.7% 7.5    7.3 0.2
16-2 94.3% 11.3    9.6 1.6 0.0
15-3 74.5% 11.2    7.4 3.4 0.4 0.0
14-4 44.7% 6.9    3.2 2.9 0.8 0.1
13-5 18.7% 2.6    0.7 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.9% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 42.8% 42.8 31.1 9.4 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 2.9% 100.0% 65.5% 34.5% 1.3 2.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 7.5% 100.0% 56.7% 43.3% 1.5 4.3 2.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 11.9% 100.0% 47.8% 52.2% 2.0 4.3 4.7 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 15.0% 100.0% 40.2% 59.8% 2.8 2.2 4.9 4.0 2.5 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 15.5% 99.9% 32.6% 67.3% 3.8 0.7 2.3 4.0 3.9 2.5 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
13-5 14.0% 99.6% 26.3% 73.3% 5.1 0.1 0.5 1.7 3.1 3.2 2.5 1.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.5%
12-6 11.5% 98.7% 19.8% 78.9% 6.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.0 2.3 2.1 1.5 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.1 98.4%
11-7 8.2% 95.9% 13.9% 82.0% 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.3 95.2%
10-8 5.7% 88.4% 10.6% 77.8% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.1 0.7 87.0%
9-9 3.6% 75.5% 6.9% 68.6% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.1 0.9 73.7%
8-10 2.1% 44.6% 4.3% 40.3% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 1.2 42.1%
7-11 1.2% 24.8% 4.2% 20.6% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.9 21.5%
6-12 0.6% 7.1% 1.1% 6.0% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 6.1%
5-13 0.2% 2.8% 2.8% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.2
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 95.0% 31.0% 63.9% 4.5 13.6 15.9 12.7 11.8 9.7 7.9 6.3 5.1 4.8 3.7 3.0 0.5 5.0 92.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 1.2 79.4 20.4 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.3 67.1 32.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.5 60.6 33.8 5.6