Washington
Pac-12
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.9#60
Expected Predictive Rating+13.7#30
Pace67.2#254
Improvement-0.3#221

Offense
Total Offense+1.0#140
First Shot+2.0#116
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#226
Layup/Dunks+3.7#66
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#219
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#207
Freethrows+0.6#142
Improvement+0.3#120

Defense
Total Defense+7.9#15
First Shot+4.2#72
After Offensive Rebounds+3.7#23
Layups/Dunks+6.6#15
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#256
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#242
Freethrows+0.7#152
Improvement-0.6#264
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 1.1% 1.2% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 4.7% 5.1% 0.9%
Top 6 Seed 10.8% 11.6% 3.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 46.2% 48.5% 23.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 43.2% 45.5% 21.3%
Average Seed 8.3 8.3 9.1
.500 or above 84.2% 86.2% 64.1%
.500 or above in Conference 63.2% 64.8% 47.9%
Conference Champion 5.7% 6.1% 2.0%
Last Place in Conference 4.0% 3.6% 8.3%
First Four8.4% 8.6% 6.5%
First Round41.4% 43.6% 19.7%
Second Round20.8% 22.1% 7.5%
Sweet Sixteen7.4% 8.0% 1.9%
Elite Eight2.7% 2.9% 0.8%
Final Four0.9% 1.0% 0.4%
Championship Game0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Montana (Home) - 90.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 7
Quad 24 - 38 - 10
Quad 35 - 113 - 12
Quad 46 - 019 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2019 19   Baylor W 67-64 32%     1 - 0 +16.6 -4.6 +21.0
  Nov 12, 2019 287   Mount St. Mary's W 56-46 95%     2 - 0 +0.2 -14.9 +16.2
  Nov 16, 2019 21   Tennessee L 62-75 33%     2 - 1 +0.5 -7.5 +8.3
  Nov 19, 2019 306   Maine W 72-53 96%     3 - 1 +6.7 -3.4 +11.0
  Nov 22, 2019 202   Montana W 72-58 91%    
  Nov 24, 2019 159   San Diego W 69-57 87%    
  Dec 02, 2019 149   South Dakota W 73-62 85%    
  Dec 04, 2019 201   Eastern Washington W 77-63 90%    
  Dec 08, 2019 5   Gonzaga L 67-73 30%    
  Dec 17, 2019 240   Seattle W 72-56 93%    
  Dec 22, 2019 91   Ball St. W 67-64 63%    
  Jan 02, 2020 78   UCLA W 70-65 68%    
  Jan 05, 2020 59   USC W 71-68 60%    
  Jan 09, 2020 83   @ Stanford L 66-67 50%    
  Jan 11, 2020 137   @ California W 66-62 65%    
  Jan 16, 2020 66   Oregon St. W 69-65 62%    
  Jan 18, 2020 12   Oregon L 62-66 35%    
  Jan 23, 2020 79   @ Utah L 70-71 48%    
  Jan 25, 2020 27   @ Colorado L 61-68 28%    
  Jan 30, 2020 13   Arizona L 65-69 37%    
  Feb 01, 2020 52   Arizona St. W 73-71 58%    
  Feb 09, 2020 143   @ Washington St. W 71-66 66%    
  Feb 13, 2020 59   @ USC L 68-71 39%    
  Feb 15, 2020 78   @ UCLA L 67-68 47%    
  Feb 20, 2020 83   Stanford W 70-64 69%    
  Feb 22, 2020 137   California W 69-59 80%    
  Feb 28, 2020 143   Washington St. W 74-63 82%    
  Mar 05, 2020 52   @ Arizona St. L 70-74 38%    
  Mar 07, 2020 13   @ Arizona L 62-72 19%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.6 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.0 5.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.9 3.4 2.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 9.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.0 5.0 2.9 0.7 0.0 12.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.6 5.7 2.6 0.4 0.0 13.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.2 5.4 2.4 0.3 0.0 11.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.5 5.4 2.8 0.3 0.0 11.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.8 5.0 2.6 0.3 9.9 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 4.0 2.7 0.5 0.0 8.6 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 3.0 3.0 0.6 0.0 7.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 1.9 2.1 0.5 0.0 5.2 10th
11th 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.3 0.4 0.0 3.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.2 2.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.6 4.3 6.9 9.7 11.3 12.4 12.8 11.9 9.9 7.6 4.8 2.3 1.0 0.5 0.0 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 99.3% 0.5    0.4 0.0
16-2 93.5% 0.9    0.8 0.2 0.0
15-3 70.6% 1.6    0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
14-4 33.6% 1.6    0.6 0.7 0.3 0.1
13-5 11.8% 0.9    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.7% 5.7 2.9 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.5% 100.0% 31.6% 68.4% 2.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.0% 100.0% 26.3% 73.7% 3.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 2.3% 99.9% 18.8% 81.1% 4.3 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-4 4.8% 98.7% 16.9% 81.9% 5.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.5%
13-5 7.6% 97.6% 12.3% 85.3% 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.2 97.3%
12-6 9.9% 88.4% 9.2% 79.2% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.6 2.0 1.7 1.1 0.1 1.2 87.2%
11-7 11.9% 78.3% 6.8% 71.5% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.2 2.0 2.5 2.4 0.4 0.0 2.6 76.7%
10-8 12.8% 53.7% 3.7% 50.0% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.7 2.8 0.7 0.0 5.9 51.9%
9-9 12.4% 30.4% 2.0% 28.3% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.8 0.6 0.0 8.7 28.9%
8-10 11.3% 11.2% 1.9% 9.3% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 10.1 9.5%
7-11 9.7% 2.3% 0.5% 1.8% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.4 1.8%
6-12 6.9% 0.9% 0.3% 0.6% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.9 0.7%
5-13 4.3% 0.1% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 4.3
4-14 2.6% 0.1% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 2.6
3-15 1.2% 1.2
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 46.2% 5.3% 40.9% 8.3 0.4 0.7 1.5 2.1 2.6 3.5 4.5 5.0 7.1 7.7 9.0 2.0 0.0 53.8 43.2%