Washington
Pac-12
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.3#47
Expected Predictive Rating+7.1#78
Pace69.2#183
Improvement+0.7#149

Offense
Total Offense+2.5#105
First Shot+2.5#99
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#178
Layup/Dunks+0.4#152
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#57
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#265
Freethrows+2.1#43
Improvement-0.6#213

Defense
Total Defense+7.9#20
First Shot+8.5#12
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#230
Layups/Dunks+7.8#3
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#321
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#176
Freethrows+3.4#21
Improvement+1.3#113
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.5% 0.7% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 2.0% 2.8% 0.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 40.1% 47.3% 27.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 35.5% 42.8% 23.1%
Average Seed 9.7 9.6 10.2
.500 or above 97.2% 99.0% 94.1%
.500 or above in Conference 60.2% 70.7% 42.0%
Conference Champion 1.4% 2.0% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 0.6% 3.7%
First Four11.1% 12.1% 9.6%
First Round34.8% 41.7% 22.9%
Second Round16.3% 19.9% 10.1%
Sweet Sixteen5.1% 6.4% 2.9%
Elite Eight2.0% 2.5% 1.1%
Final Four0.7% 1.0% 0.3%
Championship Game0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah (Away) - 63.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 42 - 4
Quad 1b1 - 33 - 8
Quad 25 - 38 - 11
Quad 36 - 213 - 13
Quad 47 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2019 5   Baylor W 67-64 24%     1 - 0 +20.6 -1.4 +21.8
  Nov 12, 2019 282   Mount St. Mary's W 56-46 96%     2 - 0 +0.3 -14.7 +16.0
  Nov 16, 2019 52   Tennessee L 62-75 53%     2 - 1 -3.5 -5.5 +2.4
  Nov 19, 2019 338   Maine W 72-53 98%     3 - 1 +3.3 -4.7 +9.0
  Nov 22, 2019 178   Montana W 73-56 89%     4 - 1 +13.6 -5.1 +17.5
  Nov 24, 2019 193   San Diego W 88-69 91%     5 - 1 +14.3 +16.0 -1.5
  Dec 02, 2019 205   South Dakota W 75-55 92%     6 - 1 +14.4 -6.6 +20.3
  Dec 04, 2019 181   Eastern Washington W 90-80 90%     7 - 1 +6.5 +3.8 +1.5
  Dec 08, 2019 3   Gonzaga L 76-83 28%     7 - 2 +9.4 +1.6 +8.4
  Dec 17, 2019 197   Seattle W 81-59 92%     8 - 2 +16.7 +9.9 +7.8
  Dec 22, 2019 101   Ball St. W 85-64 71%     9 - 2 +25.7 +19.1 +7.1
  Dec 23, 2019 175   @ Hawaii W 72-61 78%     10 - 2 +13.3 -5.3 +17.8
  Dec 25, 2019 28   Houston L 71-75 42%     10 - 3 +8.5 +6.7 +1.5
  Jan 02, 2020 128   UCLA L 64-66 84%     10 - 4 0 - 1 -2.3 -4.0 +1.4
  Jan 05, 2020 59   USC W 72-40 68%     11 - 4 1 - 1 +37.7 -0.9 +36.9
  Jan 09, 2020 44   @ Stanford L 55-61 38%     11 - 5 1 - 2 +7.5 -7.4 +14.8
  Jan 11, 2020 177   @ California L 58-61 OT 78%     11 - 6 1 - 3 -0.7 -11.6 +10.9
  Jan 16, 2020 75   Oregon St. W 64-56 72%     12 - 6 2 - 3 +12.4 +4.6 +9.7
  Jan 18, 2020 21   Oregon L 61-64 OT 48%     12 - 7 2 - 4 +7.9 -4.6 +12.3
  Jan 23, 2020 114   @ Utah W 71-67 63%    
  Jan 25, 2020 25   @ Colorado L 63-68 31%    
  Jan 30, 2020 10   Arizona L 68-70 43%    
  Feb 01, 2020 70   Arizona St. W 72-66 71%    
  Feb 09, 2020 122   @ Washington St. W 71-66 66%    
  Feb 13, 2020 59   @ USC L 68-69 46%    
  Feb 15, 2020 128   @ UCLA W 70-65 67%    
  Feb 20, 2020 44   Stanford W 65-63 60%    
  Feb 22, 2020 177   California W 71-57 90%    
  Feb 28, 2020 122   Washington St. W 74-64 83%    
  Mar 05, 2020 70   @ Arizona St. L 68-69 50%    
  Mar 07, 2020 10   @ Arizona L 65-73 24%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 9 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.2 1.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.1 0.9 0.0 3.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.4 2.6 0.2 6.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 4.7 5.7 0.8 0.0 11.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 4.8 8.8 2.1 0.1 16.2 5th
6th 0.2 4.2 10.4 4.4 0.2 19.4 6th
7th 0.1 2.4 8.9 5.0 0.4 0.0 16.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 5.5 4.4 0.6 0.0 11.3 8th
9th 0.3 2.6 3.6 0.6 0.0 7.0 9th
10th 0.1 1.0 2.1 0.5 0.0 3.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.8 11th
12th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 12th
Total 0.1 0.7 2.4 6.0 12.3 18.3 21.3 18.8 12.0 5.9 1.9 0.2 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 89.2% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 38.8% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 6.9% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.4% 1.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.2% 100.0% 24.7% 75.3% 4.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 1.9% 98.5% 22.0% 76.5% 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.0%
12-6 5.9% 94.2% 15.4% 78.7% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.4 1.5 0.9 0.2 0.3 93.1%
11-7 12.0% 81.9% 13.5% 68.5% 9.5 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.5 3.2 2.0 0.1 2.2 79.1%
10-8 18.8% 60.6% 8.3% 52.3% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 3.6 4.9 0.5 7.4 57.1%
9-9 21.3% 37.1% 5.7% 31.4% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.9 4.4 0.9 0.0 13.4 33.3%
8-10 18.3% 13.7% 4.4% 9.3% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.5 0.6 15.8 9.8%
7-11 12.3% 4.6% 3.0% 1.6% 11.3 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 11.7 1.7%
6-12 6.0% 2.7% 2.7% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.9
5-13 2.4% 1.6% 1.6% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3
4-14 0.7% 2.2% 2.2% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.7
3-15 0.1% 4.8% 4.8% 15.0 0.0 0.1
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 40.1% 7.2% 32.9% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 2.0 3.9 6.3 10.1 13.4 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 59.9 35.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 2.0 20.0 63.6 14.5 1.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 3.8 7.5 37.7 28.3 18.9 7.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 4.8 9.5 32.4 29.7 24.3 4.1