Arkansas
Southeastern
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.2#39
Expected Predictive Rating+13.1#30
Pace75.2#49
Improvement-4.2#319

Offense
Total Offense+3.3#79
First Shot+6.4#26
After Offensive Rebound-3.1#331
Layup/Dunks-0.5#192
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#65
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#92
Freethrows+2.6#21
Improvement+1.4#98

Defense
Total Defense+7.9#18
First Shot+9.0#5
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#259
Layups/Dunks+1.1#122
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#154
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.9#3
Freethrows+0.2#170
Improvement-5.6#353
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.4% 0.8% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 1.4% 2.7% 0.4%
Top 4 Seed 7.6% 13.2% 3.7%
Top 6 Seed 21.4% 32.8% 13.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 76.4% 86.9% 69.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 74.4% 85.4% 67.1%
Average Seed 7.9 7.2 8.4
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 79.9% 90.7% 72.6%
Conference Champion 4.6% 8.5% 1.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four7.9% 5.1% 9.8%
First Round72.4% 84.3% 64.4%
Second Round39.5% 48.6% 33.4%
Sweet Sixteen14.4% 19.0% 11.3%
Elite Eight5.7% 7.4% 4.5%
Final Four2.1% 2.8% 1.6%
Championship Game0.7% 1.0% 0.6%
National Champion0.2% 0.3% 0.1%

Next Game: Mississippi St. (Away) - 40.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b3 - 44 - 6
Quad 26 - 310 - 9
Quad 38 - 018 - 10
Quad 45 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 240   Rice W 91-43 95%     1 - 0 +40.6 -2.0 +34.8
  Nov 12, 2019 93   North Texas W 66-43 79%     2 - 0 +25.9 +3.7 +25.4
  Nov 16, 2019 176   Montana W 64-46 91%     3 - 0 +14.6 -6.9 +22.0
  Nov 19, 2019 242   Texas Southern W 82-51 95%     4 - 0 +23.5 -2.9 +23.5
  Nov 22, 2019 191   South Dakota W 77-56 92%     5 - 0 +16.3 -3.4 +19.5
  Nov 25, 2019 85   @ Georgia Tech W 62-61 OT 58%     6 - 0 +10.3 -9.0 +19.1
  Nov 30, 2019 114   Northern Kentucky W 66-60 83%     7 - 0 +6.9 -3.6 +10.8
  Dec 03, 2019 171   Austin Peay W 69-61 90%     8 - 0 +5.0 -9.0 +14.1
  Dec 07, 2019 106   @ Western Kentucky L 79-86 OT 65%     8 - 1 +0.3 -4.7 +6.0
  Dec 14, 2019 98   Tulsa W 98-79 80%     9 - 1 +21.2 +20.0 -0.4
  Dec 21, 2019 161   Valparaiso W 73-71 90%     10 - 1 -0.6 -12.6 +11.7
  Dec 29, 2019 41   @ Indiana W 71-64 40%     11 - 1 +20.8 +6.5 +14.3
  Jan 04, 2020 132   Texas A&M W 69-59 86%     12 - 1 1 - 0 +9.3 +4.5 +5.6
  Jan 08, 2020 32   @ LSU L 77-79 36%     12 - 2 1 - 1 +12.8 +7.8 +5.0
  Jan 11, 2020 102   @ Mississippi W 76-72 64%     13 - 2 2 - 1 +11.5 +3.6 +7.8
  Jan 15, 2020 150   Vanderbilt W 75-55 89%     14 - 2 3 - 1 +18.0 -0.1 +18.2
  Jan 18, 2020 14   Kentucky L 66-73 48%     14 - 3 3 - 2 +4.8 -2.9 +8.0
  Jan 22, 2020 43   @ Mississippi St. L 68-70 40%    
  Jan 25, 2020 64   TCU W 69-63 72%    
  Jan 29, 2020 92   South Carolina W 77-69 78%    
  Feb 01, 2020 35   @ Alabama L 77-80 38%    
  Feb 04, 2020 26   Auburn W 72-71 56%    
  Feb 08, 2020 63   @ Missouri W 67-66 51%    
  Feb 11, 2020 52   @ Tennessee L 65-66 46%    
  Feb 15, 2020 43   Mississippi St. W 71-68 62%    
  Feb 18, 2020 19   @ Florida L 65-70 30%    
  Feb 22, 2020 63   Missouri W 70-64 72%    
  Feb 26, 2020 52   Tennessee W 68-63 67%    
  Feb 29, 2020 73   @ Georgia W 74-73 54%    
  Mar 04, 2020 32   LSU W 77-75 58%    
  Mar 07, 2020 132   @ Texas A&M W 66-60 72%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.9 1.0 0.2 4.6 1st
2nd 0.2 2.3 4.1 1.8 0.3 0.0 8.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.1 5.7 3.0 0.2 0.0 11.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 6.5 4.6 0.5 0.0 12.7 4th
5th 0.3 4.9 6.5 1.0 0.0 12.8 5th
6th 0.1 2.6 7.7 2.3 0.1 12.8 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 6.2 3.9 0.2 11.4 7th
8th 0.3 3.4 4.9 0.6 0.0 9.3 8th
9th 0.1 1.7 4.2 1.5 0.0 7.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 2.7 1.7 0.1 5.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.0 0.1 0.0 2.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.6 5.8 10.7 15.6 18.4 17.8 13.9 8.8 3.9 1.2 0.2 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 96.7% 0.2    0.2 0.0
15-3 79.2% 1.0    0.7 0.3 0.0
14-4 48.2% 1.9    0.6 0.9 0.3 0.0
13-5 14.7% 1.3    0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.6% 4.6 1.6 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.2% 100.0% 26.4% 73.6% 1.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 1.2% 100.0% 22.1% 77.9% 2.7 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 3.9% 99.9% 20.1% 79.8% 4.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-5 8.8% 99.7% 17.4% 82.2% 5.3 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.8 2.2 2.1 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.6%
12-6 13.9% 98.2% 12.7% 85.6% 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.9 3.0 3.6 2.5 1.4 0.4 0.0 0.3 97.9%
11-7 17.8% 95.6% 8.8% 86.8% 8.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 3.1 4.2 4.1 2.2 0.6 0.0 0.8 95.2%
10-8 18.4% 85.5% 5.6% 79.9% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.8 4.4 4.1 2.3 0.1 2.7 84.7%
9-9 15.6% 69.8% 3.4% 66.5% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.0 3.2 4.0 0.4 4.7 68.8%
8-10 10.7% 38.3% 2.8% 35.5% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.2 0.6 0.0 6.6 36.5%
7-11 5.8% 13.4% 2.2% 11.3% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 5.0 11.5%
6-12 2.6% 2.9% 0.9% 2.0% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.0%
5-13 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% 12.0 0.0 0.8
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 76.4% 8.0% 68.4% 7.9 0.4 1.0 2.2 4.0 5.9 8.0 9.8 11.0 12.4 10.8 9.7 1.4 0.0 23.6 74.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.2 76.2 23.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 2.1 26.1 47.8 17.4 8.7