Murray St.
Ohio Valley
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+2.7#125
Expected Predictive Rating-0.5#179
Pace71.1#133
Improvement+1.5#114

Offense
Total Offense+1.7#134
First Shot+2.3#102
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#226
Layup/Dunks+3.1#62
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#93
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.7#314
Freethrows+2.4#31
Improvement+0.4#150

Defense
Total Defense+0.9#140
First Shot-1.0#191
After Offensive Rebounds+1.9#40
Layups/Dunks+0.9#133
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#156
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#222
Freethrows-1.5#264
Improvement+1.1#118
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27.4% 28.4% 22.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.4 14.9
.500 or above 99.8% 99.9% 99.2%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 99.5%
Conference Champion 47.6% 51.4% 27.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.5% 0.4% 1.0%
First Round27.3% 28.3% 22.2%
Second Round2.7% 2.8% 1.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.6% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southeast Missouri St. (Away) - 83.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 33 - 53 - 8
Quad 417 - 220 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2019 335   Southern W 69-49 94%     1 - 0 +5.5 -13.6 +18.3
  Nov 12, 2019 57   @ Tennessee L 63-82 20%     1 - 1 -7.4 +1.6 -10.1
  Nov 19, 2019 189   Southern Illinois W 79-66 75%     2 - 1 +8.5 +10.0 -0.8
  Nov 25, 2019 172   La Salle L 64-75 61%     2 - 2 -11.3 -5.8 -5.7
  Nov 26, 2019 274   Weber St. W 69-68 80%     3 - 2 -5.4 -3.0 -2.3
  Nov 27, 2019 143   Drake L 53-63 55%     3 - 3 -8.5 -17.4 +8.5
  Dec 03, 2019 148   @ Missouri St. L 69-71 44%     3 - 4 +2.1 -2.2 +4.4
  Dec 07, 2019 284   Middle Tennessee W 85-52 88%     4 - 4 +23.0 +4.1 +18.0
  Dec 16, 2019 346   Kennesaw St. W 74-38 96%     5 - 4 +18.2 -6.0 +24.0
  Dec 21, 2019 251   @ Evansville L 76-78 OT 68%     5 - 5 -4.2 -3.3 -0.7
  Jan 02, 2020 300   Tennessee Martin W 89-76 89%     6 - 5 1 - 0 +2.1 -3.3 +4.2
  Jan 04, 2020 331   Southeast Missouri St. W 81-59 93%     7 - 5 2 - 0 +8.3 +14.4 -2.4
  Jan 09, 2020 235   @ Jacksonville St. W 72-68 65%     8 - 5 3 - 0 +2.7 -4.0 +6.5
  Jan 11, 2020 341   @ Tennessee Tech W 81-69 88%     9 - 5 4 - 0 +1.6 +8.3 -6.2
  Jan 16, 2020 300   @ Tennessee Martin W 84-62 77%     10 - 5 5 - 0 +16.8 +0.8 +15.7
  Jan 18, 2020 331   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 76-65 84%    
  Jan 23, 2020 88   Belmont L 74-75 49%    
  Jan 25, 2020 232   Tennessee St. W 78-68 82%    
  Jan 30, 2020 220   Eastern Illinois W 76-67 80%    
  Feb 01, 2020 336   SIU Edwardsville W 82-64 95%    
  Feb 06, 2020 88   @ Belmont L 72-78 28%    
  Feb 08, 2020 232   @ Tennessee St. W 75-71 63%    
  Feb 13, 2020 173   @ Austin Peay W 75-74 50%    
  Feb 15, 2020 291   Morehead St. W 77-64 89%    
  Feb 20, 2020 220   @ Eastern Illinois W 73-70 61%    
  Feb 22, 2020 336   @ SIU Edwardsville W 79-67 87%    
  Feb 27, 2020 323   Eastern Kentucky W 85-69 93%    
  Feb 29, 2020 173   Austin Peay W 77-71 71%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 14 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 6.4 15.1 15.7 7.9 1.7 47.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.8 8.6 13.9 7.0 0.7 32.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 5.2 5.9 1.7 0.1 14.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 1.7 1.4 0.2 3.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.0 1.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.9 8.5 15.5 22.1 22.1 16.4 7.9 1.7 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.7    1.7
17-1 100.0% 7.9    7.8 0.0
16-2 95.9% 15.7    12.7 3.0
15-3 68.1% 15.1    7.6 6.8 0.7
14-4 29.2% 6.4    1.6 3.6 1.2 0.0
13-5 5.1% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 47.6% 47.6 31.5 13.8 2.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.7% 47.7% 47.7% 12.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.9
17-1 7.9% 42.9% 42.9% 13.6 0.2 1.4 1.5 0.3 4.5
16-2 16.4% 38.3% 38.3% 14.1 0.1 1.1 3.4 1.7 0.1 10.1
15-3 22.1% 32.5% 32.5% 14.6 0.4 2.6 3.9 0.4 14.9
14-4 22.1% 25.6% 25.6% 15.0 0.1 1.1 3.5 1.0 16.4
13-5 15.5% 17.5% 17.5% 15.2 0.2 1.6 0.9 12.8
12-6 8.5% 12.3% 12.3% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 7.4
11-7 3.9% 7.6% 7.6% 15.7 0.1 0.2 3.6
10-8 1.5% 5.5% 5.5% 15.8 0.0 0.1 1.5
9-9 0.4% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.3
8-10 0.1% 0.1
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 27.4% 27.4% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.6 3.3 9.0 11.3 3.2 72.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 100.0% 12.6 3.0 40.0 49.1 7.3 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%