Murray St.
Ohio Valley
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.8#118
Expected Predictive Rating-0.2#177
Pace71.1#142
Improvement-0.1#195

Offense
Total Offense+2.3#104
First Shot+3.9#74
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#254
Layup/Dunks+3.8#66
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#262
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#137
Freethrows+0.8#127
Improvement+0.2#142

Defense
Total Defense+0.4#148
First Shot-0.9#189
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#98
Layups/Dunks+2.2#113
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#135
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#280
Freethrows-0.8#219
Improvement-0.3#238
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.7% 19.5% 15.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 13.1 14.0
.500 or above 91.3% 92.9% 84.3%
.500 or above in Conference 93.4% 93.9% 91.1%
Conference Champion 21.3% 23.5% 11.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
First Four0.2% 0.0% 0.7%
First Round18.6% 19.5% 14.8%
Second Round3.0% 3.4% 1.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 0.8% 0.8%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.0% 0.4%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Illinois (Home) - 81.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 34 - 35 - 7
Quad 414 - 319 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2019 343   Southern W 69-49 95%     1 - 0 +3.2 -13.0 +15.5
  Nov 12, 2019 19   @ Tennessee L 63-82 11%     1 - 1 -2.6 +0.8 -4.5
  Nov 19, 2019 225   Southern Illinois W 71-62 81%    
  Nov 25, 2019 203   La Salle W 74-69 66%    
  Dec 03, 2019 123   @ Missouri St. L 67-70 40%    
  Dec 07, 2019 164   Middle Tennessee W 74-68 71%    
  Dec 16, 2019 331   Kennesaw St. W 81-64 94%    
  Dec 21, 2019 127   @ Evansville L 72-74 43%    
  Jan 02, 2020 284   Tennessee Martin W 86-74 86%    
  Jan 04, 2020 295   Southeast Missouri St. W 82-68 87%    
  Jan 09, 2020 229   @ Jacksonville St. W 74-71 59%    
  Jan 11, 2020 319   @ Tennessee Tech W 71-61 80%    
  Jan 16, 2020 284   @ Tennessee Martin W 83-77 70%    
  Jan 18, 2020 295   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 79-71 75%    
  Jan 23, 2020 63   Belmont L 79-82 40%    
  Jan 25, 2020 242   Tennessee St. W 80-70 81%    
  Jan 30, 2020 190   Eastern Illinois W 77-70 73%    
  Feb 01, 2020 329   SIU Edwardsville W 83-66 92%    
  Feb 06, 2020 63   @ Belmont L 76-85 22%    
  Feb 08, 2020 242   @ Tennessee St. W 77-73 61%    
  Feb 13, 2020 228   @ Austin Peay W 78-75 61%    
  Feb 15, 2020 214   Morehead St. W 78-69 77%    
  Feb 20, 2020 190   @ Eastern Illinois W 74-73 55%    
  Feb 22, 2020 329   @ SIU Edwardsville W 80-69 81%    
  Feb 27, 2020 264   Eastern Kentucky W 88-77 82%    
  Feb 29, 2020 228   Austin Peay W 81-72 76%    
Projected Record 18 - 8 13 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.0 3.0 5.3 6.5 4.7 0.8 21.3 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 3.9 8.2 8.9 6.7 1.2 30.0 2nd
3rd 0.6 3.8 7.1 4.9 1.8 0.2 18.3 3rd
4th 0.2 2.5 4.8 2.3 0.9 0.0 10.8 4th
5th 0.0 2.0 2.9 1.3 0.4 6.6 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 2.8 1.8 0.1 5.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 1.2 1.2 0.2 3.2 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.2 1.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 1.1 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.9 10th
11th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 11th
12th 0.1 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.9 3.0 6.4 8.1 11.0 13.7 15.0 13.8 12.2 7.7 4.7 0.8 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
17-1 100.0% 4.7    3.9 0.8
16-2 84.1% 6.5    4.6 1.9 0.0
15-3 43.5% 5.3    2.3 2.8 0.1 0.0
14-4 21.9% 3.0    1.1 1.4 0.4 0.2
13-5 6.3% 1.0    0.0 0.6 0.2 0.1
12-6 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 21.3% 21.3 12.8 7.5 0.8 0.3



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.8% 71.6% 70.4% 1.2% 8.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 4.0%
17-1 4.7% 49.1% 49.0% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 2.4 0.2%
16-2 7.7% 37.9% 37.9% 12.7 0.0 1.3 1.4 0.3 4.8
15-3 12.2% 35.5% 35.5% 13.2 0.7 2.4 1.2 0.1 7.9
14-4 13.8% 20.6% 20.6% 13.5 0.4 1.2 0.7 0.6 10.9
13-5 15.0% 16.8% 16.8% 14.0 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.1 12.5
12-6 13.7% 13.6% 13.6% 14.4 0.1 0.9 0.7 0.1 11.8
11-7 11.0% 5.7% 5.7% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 10.4
10-8 8.1% 4.3% 4.3% 15.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 7.7
9-9 6.4% 6.1% 6.1% 15.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 6.1
8-10 3.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.9
7-11 1.9% 0.5% 0.5% 15.0 0.0 1.9
6-12 1.0% 1.0
5-13 0.5% 0.5
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 18.7% 18.7% 0.0% 13.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 3.9 6.4 4.1 2.9 0.6 81.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 6.3 1.8 45.5 25.5 25.5 1.8