Nicholls St.
Southland
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.3#219
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#172
Pace71.2#127
Improvement-3.3#303

Offense
Total Offense-3.9#291
First Shot-5.6#320
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#60
Layup/Dunks-2.8#284
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#67
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#278
Freethrows-1.9#312
Improvement-2.9#314

Defense
Total Defense+0.6#147
First Shot+1.0#128
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#213
Layups/Dunks-1.0#220
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#65
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#103
Freethrows-1.3#266
Improvement-0.4#210
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.2% 15.0% 10.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 15.0 15.3
.500 or above 91.9% 96.5% 84.1%
.500 or above in Conference 99.2% 99.7% 98.3%
Conference Champion 14.4% 19.1% 6.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.0% 0.9% 1.2%
First Round12.7% 14.6% 9.5%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Orleans (Away) - 62.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 4
Quad 21 - 11 - 5
Quad 32 - 23 - 6
Quad 414 - 617 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 24   @ Illinois L 70-78 OT 5%     0 - 1 +7.9 -3.7 +12.5
  Nov 09, 2019 76   @ Pittsburgh W 75-70 11%     1 - 1 +15.1 +8.4 +6.7
  Nov 16, 2019 33   @ LSU L 65-75 5%     1 - 2 +5.0 -10.2 +16.0
  Nov 19, 2019 62   @ Rhode Island L 65-70 9%     1 - 3 +6.2 -3.2 +9.7
  Nov 22, 2019 287   N.C. A&T L 54-66 65%     1 - 4 -19.3 -20.1 +0.9
  Nov 24, 2019 291   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 82-72 66%     2 - 4 +2.4 +5.2 -2.9
  Dec 14, 2019 6   @ West Virginia L 57-83 3%     2 - 5 -6.5 -6.8 +1.8
  Dec 18, 2019 297   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 64-58 76%     3 - 5 1 - 0 -4.8 -9.1 +4.6
  Dec 21, 2019 210   @ Abilene Christian L 61-79 38%     3 - 6 1 - 1 -18.1 -14.2 -2.7
  Jan 02, 2020 346   Incarnate Word W 76-60 93%     4 - 6 2 - 1 -3.5 -5.2 +2.0
  Jan 04, 2020 182   @ Sam Houston St. W 70-58 30%     5 - 6 3 - 1 +14.2 +4.2 +10.9
  Jan 08, 2020 276   @ Lamar W 61-52 50%     6 - 6 4 - 1 +5.6 -13.4 +18.7
  Jan 11, 2020 330   @ SE Louisiana W 69-58 67%     7 - 6 5 - 1 +3.1 -7.8 +10.6
  Jan 15, 2020 325   Northwestern St. L 72-73 82%     7 - 7 5 - 2 -14.1 -15.4 +1.4
  Jan 18, 2020 308   Central Arkansas W 79-72 78%     8 - 7 6 - 2 -4.6 -1.7 -2.9
  Jan 22, 2020 344   Houston Baptist W 91-83 90%     9 - 7 7 - 2 -9.3 -8.6 -1.5
  Jan 25, 2020 320   @ New Orleans W 73-70 63%    
  Jan 29, 2020 261   @ McNeese St. L 71-72 47%    
  Feb 05, 2020 138   @ Stephen F. Austin L 66-74 23%    
  Feb 08, 2020 182   Sam Houston St. W 71-70 51%    
  Feb 12, 2020 276   Lamar W 70-64 71%    
  Feb 15, 2020 330   SE Louisiana W 75-65 83%    
  Feb 19, 2020 325   @ Northwestern St. W 72-68 63%    
  Feb 22, 2020 308   @ Central Arkansas W 77-75 58%    
  Feb 26, 2020 344   @ Houston Baptist W 90-82 76%    
  Feb 29, 2020 320   New Orleans W 76-67 80%    
  Mar 04, 2020 261   McNeese St. W 74-69 69%    
Projected Record 16 - 11 14 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.4 2.9 6.2 4.1 0.8 14.4 1st
2nd 0.1 1.4 6.9 12.4 5.7 0.9 27.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 7.1 10.4 4.0 0.3 23.2 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 4.7 7.7 3.8 0.3 17.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.4 5.4 2.7 0.4 0.0 12.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 1.8 0.6 0.0 3.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 1.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.5 6.4 12.2 18.8 21.9 19.5 12.1 5.0 0.8 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.8    0.7 0.1
17-3 82.0% 4.1    2.6 1.4 0.0
16-4 50.9% 6.2    1.9 3.2 1.0 0.1
15-5 15.0% 2.9    0.4 1.4 0.9 0.2
14-6 1.9% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 14.4% 14.4 5.8 6.2 2.1 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.8% 39.2% 39.2% 13.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5
17-3 5.0% 30.9% 30.9% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.5 0.0 3.4
16-4 12.1% 24.6% 24.6% 14.8 0.1 0.7 1.9 0.3 9.2
15-5 19.5% 20.0% 20.0% 15.2 0.4 2.4 1.1 15.6
14-6 21.9% 11.3% 11.3% 15.5 0.1 1.1 1.3 19.4
13-7 18.8% 6.8% 6.8% 15.6 0.0 0.5 0.8 17.6
12-8 12.2% 3.1% 3.1% 15.8 0.1 0.3 11.8
11-9 6.4% 3.3% 3.3% 15.9 0.0 0.2 6.2
10-10 2.5% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.1 2.5
9-11 0.7% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.6
8-12 0.1% 0.1
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 13.2% 13.2% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.3 2.2 6.5 4.1 86.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 13.4 6.5 51.6 38.7 3.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%