UC Riverside
Big West
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.9#275
Expected Predictive Rating-2.8#218
Pace60.8#344
Improvement-2.7#352

Offense
Total Offense-6.0#320
First Shot-4.5#301
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#248
Layup/Dunks-0.5#186
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.4#344
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#96
Freethrows-1.1#223
Improvement-1.6#337

Defense
Total Defense+0.0#164
First Shot-1.9#218
After Offensive Rebounds+1.9#63
Layups/Dunks+0.4#170
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#317
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#57
Freethrows-2.5#294
Improvement-1.2#318
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.1% 4.8% 2.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.6 15.7
.500 or above 37.8% 45.6% 23.1%
.500 or above in Conference 44.2% 48.3% 36.2%
Conference Champion 3.7% 4.3% 2.7%
Last Place in Conference 12.5% 10.4% 16.4%
First Four2.1% 2.3% 1.6%
First Round3.2% 3.9% 1.8%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Denver (Home) - 65.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 32 - 73 - 9
Quad 411 - 714 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 134   @ Nebraska W 66-47 16%     1 - 0 +23.8 +1.6 +23.6
  Nov 09, 2019 336   Idaho W 58-51 80%     2 - 0 -8.0 -12.9 +6.1
  Nov 15, 2019 266   @ Sacramento St. L 49-62 37%     2 - 1 -15.6 -17.3 -0.1
  Nov 17, 2019 235   @ Pacific L 51-58 31%     2 - 2 -7.9 -15.4 +6.6
  Nov 23, 2019 291   Denver W 66-62 66%    
  Nov 26, 2019 254   Longwood W 66-64 57%    
  Nov 29, 2019 328   SIU Edwardsville W 68-60 78%    
  Dec 04, 2019 223   @ California Baptist L 64-70 30%    
  Dec 15, 2019 141   @ Washington St. L 61-71 18%    
  Dec 19, 2019 289   Northern Arizona W 67-63 65%    
  Dec 22, 2019 325   @ San Jose St. W 65-63 57%    
  Dec 28, 2019 122   @ Fresno St. L 57-68 15%    
  Dec 31, 2019 173   @ Air Force L 59-67 23%    
  Jan 09, 2020 309   @ UC Davis W 61-60 53%    
  Jan 11, 2020 217   Cal St. Fullerton W 63-62 51%    
  Jan 16, 2020 292   Cal St. Northridge W 71-67 66%    
  Jan 18, 2020 100   @ UC Irvine L 54-68 11%    
  Jan 23, 2020 314   Cal Poly W 66-59 73%    
  Jan 25, 2020 170   @ UC Santa Barbara L 59-67 23%    
  Jan 30, 2020 252   Long Beach St. W 67-65 57%    
  Feb 05, 2020 217   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 59-65 31%    
  Feb 08, 2020 292   @ Cal St. Northridge L 68-70 45%    
  Feb 12, 2020 100   UC Irvine L 57-65 26%    
  Feb 15, 2020 252   @ Long Beach St. L 64-68 36%    
  Feb 20, 2020 202   Hawaii L 62-63 48%    
  Feb 22, 2020 314   @ Cal Poly W 63-62 53%    
  Feb 27, 2020 170   UC Santa Barbara L 62-64 43%    
  Mar 01, 2020 202   @ Hawaii L 59-66 28%    
  Mar 07, 2020 309   UC Davis W 64-57 71%    
Projected Record 13 - 16 7 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big West Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.1 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.4 3.1 1.7 0.5 0.1 8.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 3.9 4.2 1.7 0.2 11.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.4 5.4 5.5 1.6 0.1 14.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.8 6.2 5.6 1.5 0.1 15.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.9 6.6 6.0 1.2 0.0 16.0 6th
7th 0.2 1.9 5.8 4.5 0.9 0.0 13.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 2.2 4.7 3.2 0.6 0.1 11.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 2.0 2.6 1.3 0.2 7.1 9th
Total 0.1 0.9 2.5 5.0 8.0 11.3 13.5 14.6 13.3 11.5 8.4 5.5 3.0 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
14-2 86.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
13-3 70.9% 1.2    0.8 0.4 0.0
12-4 36.7% 1.1    0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
11-5 11.9% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0
10-6 1.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 3.7% 3.7 2.0 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-1 0.1% 49.3% 49.3% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-2 0.6% 30.7% 30.7% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4
13-3 1.7% 19.1% 19.1% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.4
12-4 3.0% 13.6% 13.6% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 2.6
11-5 5.5% 9.7% 9.7% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 5.0
10-6 8.4% 8.7% 8.7% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 7.7
9-7 11.5% 5.7% 5.7% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 10.8
8-8 13.3% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.0 0.5 12.9
7-9 14.6% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.3 14.3
6-10 13.5% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2 13.3
5-11 11.3% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 11.1
4-12 8.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 8.0
3-13 5.0% 5.0
2-14 2.5% 2.5
1-15 0.9% 0.9
0-16 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.9 95.9 0.0%