UC Riverside
Big West
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.2#236
Expected Predictive Rating-2.4#206
Pace61.1#340
Improvement-3.1#296

Offense
Total Offense-3.3#271
First Shot-1.7#230
After Offensive Rebound-1.7#290
Layup/Dunks-0.3#185
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#308
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#64
Freethrows-1.6#295
Improvement+0.8#126

Defense
Total Defense-0.9#191
First Shot-2.6#262
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#45
Layups/Dunks+0.6#149
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#338
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#148
Freethrows-0.2#200
Improvement-4.0#336
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.6% 7.2% 5.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 63.9% 71.9% 42.2%
.500 or above in Conference 60.7% 69.1% 38.1%
Conference Champion 4.7% 6.0% 1.1%
Last Place in Conference 5.0% 2.7% 11.3%
First Four3.3% 3.2% 3.4%
First Round5.1% 5.7% 3.6%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Long Beach St. (Home) - 73.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 2
Quad 33 - 84 - 10
Quad 412 - 516 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 116   @ Nebraska W 66-47 16%     1 - 0 +25.3 +0.5 +26.2
  Nov 09, 2019 321   Idaho W 58-51 79%     2 - 0 -5.6 -8.9 +4.5
  Nov 15, 2019 209   @ Sacramento St. L 49-62 34%     2 - 1 -13.1 -12.8 -2.2
  Nov 17, 2019 162   @ Pacific L 51-58 24%     2 - 2 -3.9 -12.4 +7.5
  Nov 23, 2019 315   Denver W 73-49 77%     3 - 2 +11.9 -3.3 +15.9
  Nov 26, 2019 316   Longwood W 71-58 78%     4 - 2 +0.8 -6.0 +6.8
  Nov 29, 2019 338   SIU Edwardsville W 69-51 83%     5 - 2 +3.4 -2.0 +8.0
  Dec 04, 2019 190   @ California Baptist L 67-79 29%     5 - 3 -10.6 -4.4 -6.7
  Dec 15, 2019 129   @ Washington St. L 56-70 19%     5 - 4 -8.8 -11.5 +2.1
  Dec 19, 2019 218   Northern Arizona L 56-63 58%     5 - 5 -13.4 -15.9 +1.6
  Dec 22, 2019 288   @ San Jose St. W 80-65 50%     6 - 5 +10.7 +3.5 +7.0
  Dec 28, 2019 159   @ Fresno St. W 60-57 24%     7 - 5 +6.1 -2.5 +9.1
  Dec 31, 2019 169   @ Air Force L 56-105 26%     7 - 6 -46.5 -17.4 -31.1
  Jan 09, 2020 252   @ UC Davis W 65-59 42%     8 - 6 1 - 0 +3.8 -5.9 +10.0
  Jan 11, 2020 260   Cal St. Fullerton W 65-59 66%     9 - 6 2 - 0 -2.4 -5.6 +3.5
  Jan 16, 2020 263   Cal St. Northridge L 68-80 66%     9 - 7 2 - 1 -20.4 -9.1 -11.9
  Jan 18, 2020 122   @ UC Irvine L 53-69 17%     9 - 8 2 - 2 -10.2 -11.6 +0.1
  Jan 23, 2020 327   Cal Poly W 97-64 80%     10 - 8 3 - 2 +19.7 +21.3 -0.7
  Jan 25, 2020 184   @ UC Santa Barbara L 63-65 28%     10 - 9 3 - 3 -0.1 -2.2 +1.8
  Jan 30, 2020 297   Long Beach St. W 69-63 73%    
  Feb 05, 2020 260   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 61-63 44%    
  Feb 08, 2020 263   @ Cal St. Northridge L 69-71 44%    
  Feb 12, 2020 122   UC Irvine L 61-65 36%    
  Feb 15, 2020 297   @ Long Beach St. W 67-66 52%    
  Feb 20, 2020 170   Hawaii L 64-65 47%    
  Feb 22, 2020 327   @ Cal Poly W 64-61 61%    
  Feb 27, 2020 184   UC Santa Barbara L 62-63 50%    
  Mar 01, 2020 170   @ Hawaii L 61-68 27%    
  Mar 07, 2020 252   UC Davis W 65-61 65%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 8 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big West Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.0 2.0 1.5 0.2 4.7 1st
2nd 0.2 3.4 6.6 3.1 0.4 0.0 13.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.8 10.1 4.4 0.4 0.0 18.8 3rd
4th 0.0 2.5 10.9 5.1 0.3 18.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 8.0 6.4 0.2 0.0 15.2 5th
6th 0.1 4.6 6.5 0.8 11.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.8 5.5 1.6 0.0 9.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 3.5 1.8 0.1 6.4 8th
9th 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.0 1.6 9th
Total 0.2 1.7 6.1 12.5 18.7 22.0 18.9 12.3 5.4 1.9 0.2 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 87.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
12-4 77.1% 1.5    0.8 0.6 0.0
11-5 36.0% 2.0    0.4 1.1 0.4 0.1
10-6 8.2% 1.0    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
9-7 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 4.7% 4.7 1.5 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 0.2% 26.1% 26.1% 14.2 0.1 0.0 0.2
12-4 1.9% 18.6% 18.6% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 1.5
11-5 5.4% 14.8% 14.8% 15.5 0.0 0.4 0.4 4.6
10-6 12.3% 8.5% 8.5% 15.8 0.0 0.2 0.8 11.3
9-7 18.9% 8.9% 8.9% 15.9 0.2 1.5 17.2
8-8 22.0% 6.0% 6.0% 15.9 0.1 1.2 20.7
7-9 18.7% 4.9% 4.9% 16.0 0.0 0.9 17.8
6-10 12.5% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.4 12.2
5-11 6.1% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 6.0
4-12 1.7% 1.7
3-13 0.2% 0.2
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 6.6% 6.6% 0.0% 15.8 0.1 1.1 5.4 93.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%