Longwood
Big South
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.7#318
Expected Predictive Rating-13.1#334
Pace70.5#149
Improvement-2.7#289

Offense
Total Offense-5.7#317
First Shot-3.4#288
After Offensive Rebound-2.3#318
Layup/Dunks-6.7#343
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#261
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#40
Freethrows+0.3#152
Improvement-3.3#329

Defense
Total Defense-4.0#290
First Shot-4.8#319
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#110
Layups/Dunks-0.7#205
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#18
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.2#340
Freethrows-1.6#270
Improvement+0.6#154
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.0% 1.7% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.9% 2.5% 0.4%
.500 or above in Conference 14.0% 28.0% 9.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 26.2% 12.0% 30.9%
First Four1.0% 1.6% 0.8%
First Round0.5% 0.8% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Campbell (Away) - 25.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 30 - 70 - 8
Quad 410 - 1310 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2019 152   @ George Mason L 65-76 11%     0 - 1 -7.1 -1.0 -6.9
  Nov 12, 2019 352   Maryland Eastern Shore W 85-55 89%     1 - 1 +6.7 +11.3 -3.9
  Nov 14, 2019 305   St. Francis Brooklyn W 86-77 58%     2 - 1 -2.7 +7.6 -10.3
  Nov 18, 2019 190   @ Northern Illinois L 48-65 15%     2 - 2 -15.5 -22.5 +6.9
  Nov 26, 2019 253   @ UC Riverside L 58-71 24%     2 - 3 -15.4 -13.9 -1.5
  Nov 29, 2019 164   @ Pacific L 51-69 12%     2 - 4 -14.7 -14.0 -2.4
  Dec 04, 2019 288   @ N.C. A&T L 41-52 30%     2 - 5 -15.4 -31.5 +15.9
  Dec 07, 2019 310   @ Morgan St. L 65-73 37%     2 - 6 -14.3 -13.4 -0.9
  Dec 15, 2019 320   @ Stetson W 76-72 40%     3 - 6 -3.0 -0.4 -2.6
  Dec 19, 2019 285   The Citadel L 99-102 3OT 51%     3 - 7 -13.0 -10.1 -2.0
  Dec 28, 2019 211   @ George Washington L 65-78 18%     3 - 8 -13.2 -9.4 -3.5
  Jan 02, 2020 141   @ Winthrop L 67-91 10%     3 - 9 0 - 1 -19.5 -11.7 -5.5
  Jan 04, 2020 311   South Carolina Upstate L 56-73 59%     3 - 10 0 - 2 -29.2 -21.9 -7.5
  Jan 08, 2020 301   @ Charleston Southern W 74-56 33%     4 - 10 1 - 2 +12.7 -6.0 +17.5
  Jan 11, 2020 329   @ Hampton L 80-83 43%     4 - 11 1 - 3 -10.8 -8.0 -2.5
  Jan 16, 2020 324   Presbyterian L 67-74 63%     4 - 12 1 - 4 -20.0 -12.0 -8.1
  Jan 18, 2020 261   @ Campbell L 62-69 25%    
  Jan 20, 2020 267   UNC Asheville L 73-74 47%    
  Jan 25, 2020 342   @ High Point W 68-67 52%    
  Jan 30, 2020 140   Radford L 64-72 22%    
  Feb 01, 2020 231   @ Gardner-Webb L 64-73 21%    
  Feb 06, 2020 301   Charleston Southern W 70-69 55%    
  Feb 08, 2020 141   Winthrop L 71-79 22%    
  Feb 10, 2020 261   Campbell L 65-66 46%    
  Feb 13, 2020 267   @ UNC Asheville L 70-77 27%    
  Feb 15, 2020 329   Hampton W 79-75 64%    
  Feb 20, 2020 311   @ South Carolina Upstate L 68-71 37%    
  Feb 22, 2020 342   High Point W 70-64 72%    
  Feb 27, 2020 324   @ Presbyterian L 67-70 41%    
Projected Record 9 - 20 6 - 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big South Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 1.3 1.0 0.3 0.0 3.1 3rd
4th 0.5 2.7 2.0 0.4 0.0 5.6 4th
5th 0.2 3.5 3.5 0.6 0.0 7.8 5th
6th 0.1 2.5 6.0 1.3 0.0 10.0 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 7.4 3.1 0.1 11.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 6.2 6.2 0.4 13.4 8th
9th 0.5 5.3 8.8 1.5 0.0 16.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 4.8 8.2 2.8 0.1 16.8 10th
11th 0.3 1.9 4.6 5.7 2.4 0.2 15.1 11th
Total 0.3 1.9 5.5 11.1 16.4 19.4 17.9 13.5 8.1 3.9 1.5 0.4 0.1 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 9.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 1.0% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.1% 4.9% 4.9% 16.0 0.0 0.1
12-6 0.4% 10.5% 10.5% 16.0 0.0 0.3
11-7 1.5% 5.1% 5.1% 16.0 0.1 1.4
10-8 3.9% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 0.2 3.7
9-9 8.1% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.2 7.9
8-10 13.5% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.2 13.3
7-11 17.9% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 17.8
6-12 19.4% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 19.3
5-13 16.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 16.4
4-14 11.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 11.1
3-15 5.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.5
2-16 1.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.9
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18
Total 100% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 16.0 1.0 99.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%