Western Illinois
Summit League
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.8#313
Expected Predictive Rating-24.2#353
Pace68.7#213
Improvement-0.2#200

Offense
Total Offense-2.0#233
First Shot-0.5#185
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#250
Layup/Dunks+0.4#155
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#202
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#179
Freethrows+0.0#174
Improvement+0.3#122

Defense
Total Defense-7.8#343
First Shot-7.8#342
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#179
Layups/Dunks-9.8#348
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#214
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#74
Freethrows-0.6#208
Improvement-0.4#243
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.5% 2.4% 1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 3.1% 6.9% 1.7%
.500 or above in Conference 13.7% 20.5% 11.3%
Conference Champion 0.8% 1.3% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 44.9% 36.1% 47.9%
First Four1.3% 1.8% 1.1%
First Round0.8% 1.4% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Illinois (Home) - 25.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 71 - 10
Quad 45 - 96 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 41   @ Indiana L 65-98 2%     0 - 1 -18.9 -5.3 -11.8
  Nov 09, 2019 337   Stetson L 75-77 70%     0 - 2 -17.3 -3.8 -13.6
  Nov 13, 2019 289   Tennessee Martin L 91-98 50%     0 - 3 -16.9 +2.5 -19.1
  Nov 20, 2019 156   Northern Illinois L 66-73 26%    
  Nov 26, 2019 91   @ Ball St. L 63-81 5%    
  Nov 30, 2019 267   @ UMKC L 67-74 25%    
  Dec 04, 2019 138   @ Evansville L 65-80 9%    
  Dec 16, 2019 190   Eastern Illinois L 71-76 33%    
  Dec 29, 2019 149   South Dakota L 71-78 25%    
  Jan 02, 2020 170   @ North Dakota St. L 65-77 13%    
  Jan 04, 2020 229   @ South Dakota St. L 73-82 21%    
  Jan 08, 2020 238   Purdue Fort Wayne L 78-80 42%    
  Jan 11, 2020 293   Denver W 74-73 52%    
  Jan 16, 2020 181   Oral Roberts L 78-84 31%    
  Jan 23, 2020 208   @ Nebraska Omaha L 70-80 18%    
  Jan 25, 2020 288   @ North Dakota L 72-78 31%    
  Jan 30, 2020 170   North Dakota St. L 68-74 29%    
  Feb 01, 2020 229   South Dakota St. L 76-79 39%    
  Feb 05, 2020 238   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 75-83 24%    
  Feb 12, 2020 149   @ South Dakota L 68-81 12%    
  Feb 15, 2020 288   North Dakota W 76-75 50%    
  Feb 22, 2020 208   Nebraska Omaha L 73-77 35%    
  Feb 27, 2020 181   @ Oral Roberts L 75-87 16%    
  Feb 29, 2020 293   @ Denver L 71-76 33%    
Projected Record 6 - 18 5 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.0 0.3 0.0 3.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.5 1.7 0.3 0.0 5.0 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 3.6 2.3 0.4 0.0 7.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 4.5 4.0 0.6 0.0 10.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.3 6.8 5.2 1.2 0.0 15.8 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 5.6 7.9 5.6 1.4 0.0 22.0 8th
9th 2.3 6.6 9.7 9.0 4.7 1.0 0.0 33.4 9th
Total 2.3 6.7 11.1 14.9 15.0 14.9 12.0 9.4 5.8 3.7 2.3 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-2 93.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-3 86.3% 0.1    0.1 0.1
12-4 60.1% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-5 24.3% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-6 2.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 0.0% 0.0
14-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-3 0.2% 6.9% 6.9% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
12-4 0.5% 12.5% 12.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.4
11-5 1.2% 6.2% 6.2% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.1
10-6 2.3% 10.3% 10.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2 2.0
9-7 3.7% 7.2% 7.2% 16.0 0.0 0.3 3.5
8-8 5.8% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1 5.7
7-9 9.4% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.2 9.2
6-10 12.0% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 11.9
5-11 14.9% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.2 14.7
4-12 15.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 14.9
3-13 14.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 14.9
2-14 11.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 11.1
1-15 6.7% 6.7
0-16 2.3% 2.3
Total 100% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 98.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.5%