Southern
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
94 Furman 30.2%   13   7 - 5 4 - 2 14 - 8 11 - 5 +5.6      +5.3 61 +0.3 163 70.5 157 +3.1 129 +3.9 4
113 UNC Greensboro 19.0%   10 - 5 5 - 2 15 - 8 10 - 5 +4.1      +0.6 152 +3.5 83 69.5 191 +1.9 142 +4.5 3
119 Wofford 21.0%   7 - 4 6 - 1 14 - 7 13 - 4 +3.6      +4.1 77 -0.5 182 64.0 308 +5.5 96 +10.7 2
127 East Tennessee St. 15.8%   7 - 5 5 - 1 13 - 9 11 - 5 +2.7      -1.0 193 +3.7 77 66.3 259 +3.2 128 +11.4 1
150 Mercer 7.9%   7 - 4 3 - 3 13 - 8 9 - 7 +0.8      +3.0 94 -2.2 228 72.3 107 +3.6 123 -1.2 5
179 Chattanooga 3.8%   10 - 5 3 - 5 14 - 11 7 - 11 -1.2      +1.0 145 -2.2 229 67.4 241 +1.6 147 -4.7 7
200 Western Carolina 1.6%   5 - 7 0 - 5 9 - 13 4 - 11 -2.8      +0.5 155 -3.3 266 75.3 47 -2.9 198 -13.8 10
206 VMI 1.8%   5 - 8 3 - 4 9 - 13 7 - 9 -3.2      +3.0 95 -6.1 320 71.5 131 -3.3 204 -2.3 6
255 Samford 0.5%   4 - 8 2 - 5 6 - 15 4 - 12 -5.9      -2.3 235 -3.6 271 79.2 22 -6.4 262 -6.3 8
287 The Citadel 0.2%   4 - 4 1 - 4 6 - 12 3 - 12 -7.8      +1.4 137 -9.2 341 84.2 5 -3.6 214 -7.4 9






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Furman 2.5 24.7 29.5 24.7 13.9 5.3 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
UNC Greensboro 3.5 5.9 17.9 23.9 30.4 14.5 5.5 1.6 0.2 0.0
Wofford 1.6 62.1 21.0 11.7 3.7 1.1 0.3 0.1
East Tennessee St. 2.3 32.4 30.8 20.0 9.7 4.8 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
Mercer 4.6 2.8 7.3 12.4 21.1 29.8 16.4 7.1 2.5 0.6 0.1
Chattanooga 5.8 0.5 1.9 4.5 10.6 21.9 29.8 20.6 7.7 2.3 0.3
Western Carolina 8.1 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.9 9.0 15.8 26.1 25.4 19.0
VMI 6.4 0.1 0.6 2.1 6.5 15.1 27.1 29.1 13.0 5.1 1.3
Samford 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.7 6.7 14.8 31.4 28.3 15.3
The Citadel 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.9 7.8 19.7 29.2 39.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Furman 11 - 7 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.6 9.3 17.9 24.5 23.6 15.1 4.6
UNC Greensboro 10 - 8 0.1 0.8 4.2 11.2 21.4 26.7 22.2 10.9 2.5
Wofford 13 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.6 6.8 14.1 21.0 23.8 19.1 9.4 2.4
East Tennessee St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.5 7.9 14.9 20.9 21.9 17.5 9.7 2.5
Mercer 9 - 9 0.1 0.6 3.0 8.1 14.7 20.9 21.8 17.2 9.5 3.4 0.6
Chattanooga 7 - 11 0.4 3.2 10.0 18.5 23.9 21.2 13.7 6.5 2.1 0.4 0.1
Western Carolina 4 - 14 0.6 3.6 9.9 17.4 21.9 20.7 14.6 7.8 2.9 0.7 0.1
VMI 7 - 11 1.4 6.9 15.9 23.3 23.4 16.7 8.6 3.0 0.7 0.1
Samford 4 - 14 8.1 20.1 25.8 22.2 14.0 6.8 2.3 0.6 0.1
The Citadel 3 - 15 7.9 19.9 26.2 22.8 13.8 6.4 2.3 0.6 0.2 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Furman 24.7% 12.0 9.3 2.9 0.5 0.0 0.0
UNC Greensboro 5.9% 1.7 2.5 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.0
Wofford 62.1% 44.6 13.6 3.3 0.5 0.0 0.0
East Tennessee St. 32.4% 17.5 11.4 3.0 0.5 0.0 0.0
Mercer 2.8% 0.8 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Chattanooga 0.5% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Western Carolina
VMI 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Samford
The Citadel


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Furman 30.2% 29.5% 0.7% 13   0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.9 7.5 11.8 5.3 1.3 0.1 69.8 1.0%
UNC Greensboro 19.0% 18.8% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.8 4.1 8.4 4.4 0.8 0.0 81.0 0.2%
Wofford 21.0% 20.2% 0.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.5 5.5 8.5 3.3 0.8 0.1 79.0 1.0%
East Tennessee St. 15.8% 15.7% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 2.7 6.6 4.0 1.3 0.1 84.2 0.1%
Mercer 7.9% 7.8% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.4 3.3 2.1 0.7 0.1 92.1 0.1%
Chattanooga 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.2 1.2 0.5 96.2 0.0%
Western Carolina 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 98.4 0.0%
VMI 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 98.2 0.0%
Samford 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 99.5 0.0%
The Citadel 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Furman 30.2% 0.5% 29.9% 6.1% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 19.0% 0.2% 18.9% 2.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wofford 21.0% 0.5% 20.7% 3.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Tennessee St. 15.8% 0.1% 15.7% 2.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mercer 7.9% 0.1% 7.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chattanooga 3.8% 0.2% 3.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Carolina 1.6% 0.6% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
VMI 1.8% 0.8% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Samford 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
The Citadel 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 98.1 1.8 0.0
1st Round 99.1% 1.0 0.9 98.0 1.0
2nd Round 15.1% 0.2 84.9 15.1 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 3.3% 0.0 96.7 3.3
Elite Eight 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0