Furman
Southern
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.4#87
Expected Predictive Rating+4.3#113
Pace70.9#152
Improvement-2.5#298

Offense
Total Offense+5.7#52
First Shot+7.7#17
After Offensive Rebound-2.0#275
Layup/Dunks+2.0#103
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#263
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.1#18
Freethrows+0.4#156
Improvement-1.5#273

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#154
First Shot+1.7#122
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#244
Layups/Dunks-2.0#238
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#147
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#94
Freethrows+1.0#124
Improvement-0.9#249
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.4% 2.6% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 37.0% 41.7% 31.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.2% 5.6% 0.5%
Average Seed 12.0 11.6 12.6
.500 or above 98.5% 99.9% 96.9%
.500 or above in Conference 97.5% 99.6% 94.8%
Conference Champion 45.2% 58.4% 28.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.2% 2.1% 0.2%
First Round36.3% 40.5% 31.0%
Second Round9.0% 11.3% 6.1%
Sweet Sixteen2.6% 3.4% 1.6%
Elite Eight0.7% 0.8% 0.5%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: East Tennessee St. (Away) - 55.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 22 - 5
Quad 38 - 310 - 7
Quad 46 - 017 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 28, 2020 316   South Carolina Upstate W 91-63 95%     1 - 0 +15.6 +0.1 +12.0
  Dec 05, 2020 201   @ College of Charleston W 81-57 76%     2 - 0 +22.9 +11.2 +13.2
  Dec 09, 2020 83   @ Cincinnati L 73-78 42%     2 - 1 +3.5 +3.3 +0.3
  Dec 15, 2020 7   @ Alabama L 80-83 12%     2 - 2 +16.4 +17.1 -0.8
  Dec 19, 2020 112   @ Winthrop L 71-87 52%     2 - 3 -10.0 -11.1 +3.7
  Dec 21, 2020 345   South Carolina St. W 118-52 99%     3 - 3 +44.6 +27.7 +12.5
  Dec 30, 2020 173   @ Chattanooga W 77-73 70%     4 - 3 1 - 0 +4.9 +11.3 -6.0
  Jan 02, 2021 143   Mercer W 83-80 74%     5 - 3 2 - 0 +2.5 +4.2 -1.8
  Jan 13, 2021 286   @ The Citadel W 94-88 87%     6 - 3 3 - 0 +0.1 -3.8 +2.9
  Jan 16, 2021 137   East Tennessee St. W 78-66 73%     7 - 3 4 - 0 +12.1 +10.5 +2.1
  Jan 20, 2021 215   @ VMI L 73-74 78%     7 - 4 4 - 1 -2.6 +0.0 -2.6
  Jan 23, 2021 137   @ East Tennessee St. W 72-69 56%    
  Jan 25, 2021 120   UNC Greensboro W 75-70 70%    
  Jan 30, 2021 173   Chattanooga W 79-70 83%    
  Feb 03, 2021 262   @ Samford W 85-74 82%    
  Feb 06, 2021 121   Wofford W 75-70 71%    
  Feb 10, 2021 120   @ UNC Greensboro W 73-72 51%    
  Feb 13, 2021 198   Western Carolina W 84-73 86%    
  Feb 17, 2021 262   Samford W 86-72 92%    
  Feb 20, 2021 143   @ Mercer W 79-76 58%    
  Feb 24, 2021 286   The Citadel W 95-79 93%    
  Feb 27, 2021 121   @ Wofford W 73-72 51%    
Projected Record 15 - 7 12 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.5 8.9 16.5 13.2 4.0 45.2 1st
2nd 0.0 2.3 10.5 11.8 5.3 0.2 30.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 5.6 5.9 1.7 0.0 14.8 3rd
4th 0.6 3.2 2.8 0.5 7.0 4th
5th 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.1 1.9 5th
6th 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.7 6th
7th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 7th
8th 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 5.7 10.9 19.3 22.3 21.8 13.4 4.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 4.0    4.0
14-4 98.5% 13.2    11.5 1.7
13-5 75.8% 16.5    10.7 5.4 0.4
12-6 39.6% 8.9    3.5 4.3 1.0
11-7 12.8% 2.5    0.4 0.8 1.0 0.2
10-8 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1
9-9 0.0%
Total 45.2% 45.2 30.2 12.3 2.5 0.3



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 4.0% 68.4% 49.1% 19.3% 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 1.3 37.9%
14-4 13.4% 60.1% 52.6% 7.5% 11.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 1.2 2.5 3.2 0.7 0.0 5.4 15.8%
13-5 21.8% 42.8% 41.6% 1.2% 12.1 0.2 1.5 4.7 2.8 0.1 12.5 2.1%
12-6 22.3% 35.6% 35.5% 0.2% 12.7 0.2 2.7 4.4 0.6 0.0 14.4 0.3%
11-7 19.3% 29.1% 29.1% 13.1 0.0 1.0 3.2 1.3 0.1 13.7
10-8 10.9% 21.4% 21.4% 13.4 0.2 1.2 0.9 0.1 8.6
9-9 5.7% 15.0% 15.0% 13.9 0.3 0.4 0.2 4.8
8-10 1.9% 4.3% 4.3% 14.5 0.0 0.0 1.8
7-11 0.6% 6.9% 6.9% 15.0 0.0 0.5
6-12 0.1% 0.1
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 37.0% 34.9% 2.1% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.4 1.7 4.5 11.9 12.6 3.3 0.5 63.0 3.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.0% 100.0% 6.0 1.9 1.9 9.7 21.7 37.2 12.1 7.7 5.8 2.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8% 57.1% 10.9 0.1 0.1 19.0 23.8 14.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.9% 30.5% 10.8 0.2 4.3 4.6 12.8 8.6