VMI
Southern
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.2#222
Expected Predictive Rating-6.0#254
Pace72.7#105
Improvement-1.2#254

Offense
Total Offense-0.4#182
First Shot+1.4#146
After Offensive Rebound-1.8#267
Layup/Dunks-2.2#253
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#322
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.5#16
Freethrows-0.4#201
Improvement+1.3#71

Defense
Total Defense-3.8#282
First Shot-3.1#275
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#216
Layups/Dunks-2.4#255
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#120
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#277
Freethrows+1.3#108
Improvement-2.5#319
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.4% 1.7% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.3 15.8
.500 or above 7.6% 10.3% 2.0%
.500 or above in Conference 6.5% 8.8% 1.7%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 27.3% 17.8% 46.5%
First Four0.6% 0.7% 0.6%
First Round1.2% 1.4% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: The Citadel (Home) - 66.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 33 - 73 - 13
Quad 45 - 18 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 28, 2020 50   @ Penn St. L 65-86 7%     0 - 1 -8.6 -8.1 +0.7
  Dec 01, 2020 298   Longwood W 84-71 72%     1 - 1 +2.8 -2.0 +3.5
  Dec 03, 2020 38   @ Virginia Tech L 57-64 6%     1 - 2 +6.1 -7.2 +13.0
  Dec 13, 2020 317   Hampton W 79-64 77%     2 - 2 +3.0 -3.1 +5.5
  Dec 18, 2020 220   @ Gardner-Webb L 77-88 43%     2 - 3 -13.5 +4.8 -18.7
  Dec 21, 2020 140   @ George Mason L 66-68 24%     2 - 4 +1.1 -2.4 +3.5
  Dec 30, 2020 264   @ Samford L 71-84 52%     2 - 5 0 - 1 -17.6 -10.1 -6.7
  Jan 02, 2021 162   Chattanooga W 84-79 40%     3 - 5 1 - 1 +3.4 +3.8 -0.7
  Jan 13, 2021 131   Wofford L 78-80 32%     3 - 6 1 - 2 -1.5 +3.0 -4.4
  Jan 16, 2021 262   The Citadel W 88-85 67%    
  Jan 20, 2021 83   Furman L 73-82 23%    
  Jan 23, 2021 152   @ Mercer L 76-82 23%    
  Jan 27, 2021 184   Western Carolina L 79-80 52%    
  Jan 30, 2021 122   @ UNC Greensboro L 68-77 17%    
  Feb 03, 2021 131   @ Wofford L 69-77 19%    
  Feb 10, 2021 184   @ Western Carolina L 78-82 31%    
  Feb 13, 2021 264   Samford W 82-78 67%    
  Feb 17, 2021 122   UNC Greensboro L 69-75 34%    
  Feb 20, 2021 262   @ The Citadel W 87-86 45%    
  Feb 24, 2021 147   East Tennessee St. L 69-73 41%    
  Feb 27, 2021 162   @ Chattanooga L 72-78 26%    
Projected Record 7 - 14 5 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.9 2nd
3rd 0.3 1.1 0.8 0.1 2.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.3 2.2 0.3 5.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 3.0 3.9 0.8 0.1 8.0 5th
6th 0.3 3.6 6.4 2.0 0.1 12.4 6th
7th 0.2 3.8 9.0 3.4 0.2 16.7 7th
8th 0.2 4.0 10.0 4.8 0.5 0.0 19.4 8th
9th 0.5 4.1 9.5 5.3 0.5 19.9 9th
10th 0.9 3.9 6.5 3.4 0.6 15.3 10th
Total 0.9 4.4 10.7 17.1 20.0 18.2 13.6 8.6 4.3 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 100.0% 0.0    0.0
12-6 51.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 8.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 1.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.1% 11.8% 11.8% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
11-7 0.4% 14.0% 14.0% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.4
10-8 1.6% 9.5% 9.5% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.4
9-9 4.3% 5.1% 5.1% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 4.1
8-10 8.6% 2.8% 2.8% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 8.4
7-11 13.6% 1.9% 1.9% 15.9 0.0 0.2 13.3
6-12 18.2% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2 18.0
5-13 20.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.2 19.9
4-14 17.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 17.0
3-15 10.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.7
2-16 4.4% 4.4
1-17 0.9% 0.9
0-18
Total 100% 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 98.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.7%