Wofford
Southern
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.4#121
Expected Predictive Rating+5.4#104
Pace64.1#306
Improvement+0.5#149

Offense
Total Offense+3.5#81
First Shot+1.3#149
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#62
Layup/Dunks-3.0#282
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#330
3 Pt Jumpshots+10.7#2
Freethrows-2.7#315
Improvement-0.2#184

Defense
Total Defense+0.0#171
First Shot+1.0#144
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#241
Layups/Dunks-2.1#241
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#178
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#101
Freethrows+1.0#127
Improvement+0.6#121
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.6% 20.6% 14.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.7% 2.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.3 12.2 13.1
.500 or above 93.9% 96.4% 82.9%
.500 or above in Conference 97.6% 99.1% 90.9%
Conference Champion 52.7% 57.1% 33.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.8% 1.0% 0.0%
First Round19.0% 19.9% 14.9%
Second Round3.2% 3.3% 2.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.7% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Carolina (Home) - 81.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 22 - 23 - 4
Quad 38 - 411 - 8
Quad 44 - 115 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 07, 2020 49   @ Richmond L 72-77 20%     0 - 1 +7.4 +3.8 +3.5
  Dec 12, 2020 98   South Florida L 56-58 45%     0 - 2 +2.8 -12.3 +15.2
  Dec 15, 2020 139   Coastal Carolina W 88-77 63%     1 - 2 +11.0 +17.6 -6.1
  Dec 21, 2020 122   @ Texas A&M L 52-70 43%     1 - 3 -12.8 -7.7 -7.8
  Dec 29, 2020 143   @ Mercer W 78-65 51%     2 - 3 1 - 0 +16.2 +6.4 +10.0
  Jan 02, 2021 262   Samford W 94-84 86%     3 - 3 2 - 0 +2.0 +12.1 -10.5
  Jan 06, 2021 120   UNC Greensboro L 75-84 56%     3 - 4 2 - 1 -7.2 +6.6 -13.9
  Jan 09, 2021 120   @ UNC Greensboro W 48-45 42%     4 - 4 3 - 1 +8.5 -14.3 +23.1
  Jan 13, 2021 215   @ VMI W 80-78 69%     5 - 4 4 - 1 +0.4 +1.9 -1.5
  Jan 16, 2021 173   @ Chattanooga W 77-59 60%     6 - 4 5 - 1 +18.9 +9.2 +11.1
  Jan 23, 2021 198   Western Carolina W 77-69 81%    
  Jan 27, 2021 286   @ The Citadel W 86-77 75%    
  Jan 30, 2021 143   Mercer W 75-71 68%    
  Feb 03, 2021 215   VMI W 79-70 82%    
  Feb 06, 2021 87   @ Furman L 70-75 29%    
  Feb 10, 2021 173   Chattanooga W 73-67 74%    
  Feb 13, 2021 137   @ East Tennessee St. L 66-67 44%    
  Feb 17, 2021 286   The Citadel W 88-75 89%    
  Feb 20, 2021 198   @ Western Carolina W 75-71 60%    
  Feb 24, 2021 262   @ Samford W 78-70 71%    
  Feb 27, 2021 87   Furman L 72-73 49%    
Projected Record 13 - 8 12 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 2.0 8.9 16.8 15.2 7.5 2.2 52.7 1st
2nd 0.1 2.0 8.6 11.0 4.0 0.3 26.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 6.4 4.9 1.1 0.0 13.8 3rd
4th 0.4 2.8 1.7 0.1 4.9 4th
5th 0.2 1.0 0.5 1.7 5th
6th 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.7 6th
7th 0.1 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.0 4.7 10.1 15.6 21.0 20.9 15.6 7.5 2.2 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 2.2    2.2
15-3 100.0% 7.5    7.5 0.0
14-4 97.8% 15.2    13.4 1.8
13-5 80.6% 16.8    10.2 6.3 0.4
12-6 42.3% 8.9    3.4 4.1 1.4
11-7 13.1% 2.0    0.3 0.8 0.7 0.2
10-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 52.7% 52.7 37.0 13.0 2.5 0.3



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 2.2% 57.3% 35.8% 21.5% 8.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9 33.5%
15-3 7.5% 42.7% 35.0% 7.7% 11.5 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.4 0.4 0.0 4.3 11.9%
14-4 15.6% 29.4% 27.7% 1.7% 12.2 0.0 0.8 2.0 1.5 0.2 11.0 2.4%
13-5 20.9% 21.2% 21.1% 0.2% 12.7 0.1 1.7 2.4 0.3 0.0 16.5 0.2%
12-6 21.0% 16.5% 16.5% 13.0 0.1 0.6 2.1 0.6 0.0 17.5
11-7 15.6% 9.9% 9.9% 13.5 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.1 14.1
10-8 10.1% 6.9% 6.9% 14.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 9.4
9-9 4.7% 4.0% 4.0% 14.8 0.0 0.2 4.6
8-10 2.0% 9.7% 9.7% 16.0 0.2 1.8
7-11 0.3% 0.3
6-12 0.1% 0.1
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 19.6% 18.2% 1.4% 12.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.9 5.8 7.3 2.2 0.5 0.2 80.4 1.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 100.0% 7.1 0.1 19.9 25.3 9.8 24.6 10.1 4.9 5.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 55.9% 11.2 11.5 33.5 10.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.9% 30.4% 10.6 8.6 4.4 8.6 8.7