Mercer
Southern
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.4#145
Expected Predictive Rating+3.8#121
Pace73.2#91
Improvement-4.1#336

Offense
Total Offense+2.7#100
First Shot+5.2#49
After Offensive Rebound-2.5#296
Layup/Dunks+2.9#69
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#138
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#84
Freethrows-0.8#227
Improvement-2.4#313

Defense
Total Defense-1.4#214
First Shot-0.7#191
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#227
Layups/Dunks-1.6#224
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#287
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#31
Freethrows-1.8#283
Improvement-1.8#284
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.6% 10.6% 6.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.8 12.7 13.4
.500 or above 88.3% 92.6% 74.0%
.500 or above in Conference 52.9% 60.2% 28.9%
Conference Champion 3.0% 3.7% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.5% 3.1%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round9.5% 10.4% 6.3%
Second Round1.1% 1.3% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: VMI (Home) - 76.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 2
Quad 21 - 32 - 4
Quad 34 - 47 - 8
Quad 47 - 114 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 27, 2020 51   @ Georgia Tech W 83-73 15%     1 - 0 +22.4 +11.9 +10.1
  Nov 30, 2020 105   Georgia St. W 86-69 44%     2 - 0 +19.8 +4.1 +13.7
  Dec 13, 2020 255   @ Georgia Southern W 77-75 70%     3 - 0 -2.0 -2.3 +0.1
  Dec 16, 2020 105   @ Georgia St. L 81-88 31%     3 - 1 -0.6 +8.0 -8.3
  Dec 22, 2020 340   @ Kennesaw St. W 81-71 90%     4 - 1 -2.9 +3.2 -6.3
  Dec 29, 2020 119   Wofford L 65-78 49%     4 - 2 0 - 1 -11.4 -7.3 -4.3
  Jan 02, 2021 88   @ Furman L 80-83 26%     4 - 3 0 - 2 +5.2 +5.2 +0.2
  Jan 13, 2021 175   @ Chattanooga L 80-83 52%     4 - 4 0 - 3 -2.1 +4.7 -6.8
  Jan 16, 2021 198   Western Carolina W 78-76 72%     5 - 4 1 - 3 -2.5 -1.6 -1.0
  Jan 20, 2021 286   @ The Citadel W 83-63 76%     6 - 4 2 - 3 +14.1 -1.3 +14.7
  Jan 23, 2021 212   VMI W 84-77 77%    
  Jan 27, 2021 261   Samford W 85-76 84%    
  Jan 30, 2021 119   @ Wofford L 71-75 32%    
  Feb 03, 2021 138   East Tennessee St. W 71-70 59%    
  Feb 10, 2021 261   @ Samford W 83-77 66%    
  Feb 13, 2021 118   UNC Greensboro L 72-73 53%    
  Feb 17, 2021 138   @ East Tennessee St. L 70-72 37%    
  Feb 20, 2021 88   Furman L 76-79 43%    
  Feb 22, 2021 286   The Citadel W 93-82 86%    
  Feb 24, 2021 175   Chattanooga W 77-73 68%    
  Feb 27, 2021 198   @ Western Carolina W 80-78 54%    
Projected Record 13 - 8 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 1.6 0.7 3.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.7 4.5 2.2 0.1 8.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.6 8.0 4.3 0.3 15.4 3rd
4th 0.1 2.9 10.6 6.5 0.6 0.0 20.7 4th
5th 0.1 3.3 10.9 7.2 0.7 0.0 22.2 5th
6th 0.1 2.1 7.5 5.2 0.5 15.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 4.4 3.2 0.4 0.0 8.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.9 1.6 0.3 4.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.6 8.4 14.4 19.4 21.0 17.0 10.1 4.1 0.8 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 85.9% 0.7    0.4 0.3 0.0
12-6 39.2% 1.6    0.4 0.8 0.3 0.0
11-7 6.6% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0
10-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.0% 3.0 0.9 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.8% 39.1% 26.7% 12.3% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 16.8%
12-6 4.1% 26.4% 24.3% 2.1% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 3.0 2.8%
11-7 10.1% 19.0% 18.8% 0.2% 12.4 0.0 0.1 1.0 0.7 0.1 8.2 0.2%
10-8 17.0% 12.9% 12.9% 12.8 0.0 0.7 1.2 0.3 0.0 14.8
9-9 21.0% 9.5% 9.5% 13.1 0.3 1.2 0.4 0.1 19.0
8-10 19.4% 6.9% 6.9% 13.5 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 18.1
7-11 14.4% 3.7% 3.7% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 13.8
6-12 8.4% 2.1% 2.1% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 8.2
5-13 3.6% 1.5% 1.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 3.5
4-14 1.1% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 1.1
3-15 0.2% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 9.6% 9.4% 0.2% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 2.6 4.1 1.6 0.5 0.1 90.4 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 8.3 1.9 19.2 12.5 18.3 27.9 11.5 3.8 4.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 26.7% 11.3 1.0 3.0 12.9 6.9 3.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 14.3% 11.0 3.6 7.1 3.6