Syracuse
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.8#55
Expected Predictive Rating+7.6#79
Pace72.0#118
Improvement-4.4#340

Offense
Total Offense+6.7#37
First Shot+6.9#30
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#187
Layup/Dunks-3.0#281
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#24
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#68
Freethrows+2.3#50
Improvement+2.0#51

Defense
Total Defense+3.1#90
First Shot+1.4#132
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#63
Layups/Dunks+4.0#55
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#254
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#288
Freethrows+1.2#105
Improvement-6.4#348
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.8% 0.9% 0.4%
Top 6 Seed 3.2% 3.9% 1.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 31.0% 35.8% 18.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 29.2% 33.9% 17.2%
Average Seed 9.5 9.3 10.1
.500 or above 77.2% 83.8% 60.7%
.500 or above in Conference 16.5% 20.9% 5.6%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 5.1% 2.9% 10.7%
First Four6.6% 6.9% 5.6%
First Round27.9% 32.5% 16.4%
Second Round13.2% 15.9% 6.4%
Sweet Sixteen4.3% 5.2% 2.1%
Elite Eight1.7% 2.0% 0.8%
Final Four0.8% 1.0% 0.3%
Championship Game0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Miami (FL) (Home) - 71.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 42 - 6
Quad 25 - 46 - 10
Quad 36 - 112 - 11
Quad 42 - 014 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 27, 2020 167   Bryant W 85-84 87%     1 - 0 -1.5 -5.5 +3.8
  Dec 03, 2020 244   Niagara W 75-45 93%     2 - 0 +23.0 -6.1 +27.5
  Dec 05, 2020 293   Rider W 87-52 96%     3 - 0 +25.2 +5.1 +19.3
  Dec 08, 2020 41   @ Rutgers L 69-79 38%     3 - 1 +3.0 +1.5 +1.7
  Dec 12, 2020 108   @ Boston College W 101-63 64%     4 - 1 1 - 0 +44.2 +20.1 +20.3
  Dec 16, 2020 144   Northeastern W 62-56 83%     5 - 1 +5.6 -8.1 +13.8
  Dec 19, 2020 106   Buffalo W 107-96 OT 75%     6 - 1 +13.9 +13.8 -2.0
  Jan 06, 2021 60   Pittsburgh L 60-63 59%     6 - 2 1 - 1 +4.5 -5.0 +9.3
  Jan 09, 2021 114   Georgetown W 74-69 76%     7 - 2 +7.5 +7.2 +0.6
  Jan 12, 2021 32   @ North Carolina L 75-81 35%     7 - 3 1 - 2 +7.8 +9.5 -1.6
  Jan 16, 2021 60   @ Pittsburgh L 76-96 46%     7 - 4 1 - 3 -9.1 +8.6 -17.2
  Jan 19, 2021 79   Miami (FL) W 75-70 72%    
  Jan 23, 2021 43   Virginia Tech W 71-70 56%    
  Jan 25, 2021 6   @ Virginia L 60-69 16%    
  Jan 31, 2021 66   North Carolina St. W 78-75 66%    
  Feb 02, 2021 35   Louisville L 72-73 55%    
  Feb 06, 2021 37   @ Clemson L 67-70 33%    
  Feb 09, 2021 66   @ North Carolina St. L 76-77 45%    
  Feb 13, 2021 60   Pittsburgh W 74-72 64%    
  Feb 17, 2021 35   @ Louisville L 71-74 34%    
  Feb 20, 2021 108   Boston College W 81-74 78%    
  Feb 22, 2021 46   @ Duke L 75-78 35%    
  Feb 27, 2021 61   @ Georgia Tech L 73-74 42%    
  Mar 01, 2021 32   North Carolina L 75-76 52%    
Projected Record 13 - 11 7 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 0.2 0.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 0.7 0.2 1.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 1.8 0.5 3.2 4th
5th 0.4 2.6 1.5 0.1 4.5 5th
6th 0.1 2.9 3.6 0.6 0.0 7.3 6th
7th 0.0 1.4 5.3 1.8 0.0 8.6 7th
8th 0.6 5.0 4.5 0.2 10.3 8th
9th 0.1 3.6 7.2 1.6 12.4 9th
10th 0.1 1.4 6.4 3.6 0.1 11.6 10th
11th 0.6 5.4 6.1 0.9 13.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 3.0 5.7 1.3 0.0 10.5 12th
13th 0.3 1.5 3.9 2.2 0.1 8.0 13th
14th 0.2 0.9 2.4 2.1 0.2 5.7 14th
15th 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.9 15th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.9 4.9 9.8 15.0 18.2 18.2 14.9 9.2 4.8 2.0 0.5 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 100.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0
13-7 25.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1
12-8 3.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.4% 0.0    0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.1% 100.0% 32.3% 67.7% 2.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 0.5% 100.0% 29.8% 70.2% 4.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 100.0%
12-8 2.0% 100.0% 17.0% 83.0% 6.3 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 100.0%
11-9 4.8% 95.4% 10.0% 85.4% 7.7 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.2 94.9%
10-10 9.2% 88.8% 6.9% 81.9% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 2.0 1.9 1.1 0.4 0.0 1.0 88.0%
9-11 14.9% 61.6% 2.1% 59.5% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.0 1.2 2.0 2.5 1.8 0.3 0.0 5.7 60.7%
8-12 18.2% 29.4% 2.1% 27.3% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 2.1 0.8 0.0 12.8 27.9%
7-13 18.2% 5.7% 1.1% 4.6% 12.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 17.2 4.6%
6-14 15.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.5% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 14.9 0.5%
5-15 9.8% 0.2% 0.2% 12.1 0.0 0.0 9.7
4-16 4.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 4.9
3-17 1.9% 1.9
2-18 0.4% 0.4
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20
Total 100% 31.0% 2.6% 28.4% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 1.0 1.4 2.5 4.1 4.5 5.1 5.1 4.9 1.4 0.1 0.0 69.0 29.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 3.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 2.0 2.4 97.6
Lose Out 0.1%