SMU
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.6#61
Expected Predictive Rating+10.2#59
Pace72.6#107
Improvement-2.2#289

Offense
Total Offense+6.5#44
First Shot+4.0#74
After Offensive Rebound+2.5#47
Layup/Dunks+4.8#34
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#286
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#109
Freethrows-0.4#201
Improvement-1.2#257

Defense
Total Defense+3.1#90
First Shot+4.7#49
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#274
Layups/Dunks+4.5#38
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#201
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#198
Freethrows+0.9#133
Improvement-1.0#259
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.4% 2.3% 0.3%
Top 6 Seed 3.6% 5.8% 1.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 37.6% 47.3% 26.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 30.0% 39.6% 19.8%
Average Seed 9.9 9.6 10.5
.500 or above 94.8% 98.3% 90.9%
.500 or above in Conference 76.8% 87.3% 65.0%
Conference Champion 6.4% 9.7% 2.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four8.7% 9.7% 7.6%
First Round33.1% 42.4% 22.8%
Second Round14.9% 19.8% 9.3%
Sweet Sixteen4.8% 6.6% 2.8%
Elite Eight1.7% 2.3% 1.0%
Final Four0.6% 0.8% 0.3%
Championship Game0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Florida (Away) - 52.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 11 - 3
Quad 25 - 36 - 6
Quad 37 - 212 - 9
Quad 44 - 016 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 176   Sam Houston St. W 97-67 88%     1 - 0 +27.0 +17.1 +8.1
  Nov 30, 2020 320   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 91-54 97%     2 - 0 +24.1 +3.7 +16.0
  Dec 02, 2020 330   Houston Baptist W 102-75 98%     3 - 0 +12.5 +5.6 +3.4
  Dec 05, 2020 75   @ Dayton W 66-64 52%     4 - 0 +11.1 -0.8 +11.9
  Dec 16, 2020 143   East Carolina W 70-55 82%     5 - 0 1 - 0 +14.7 +1.9 +13.2
  Dec 30, 2020 129   @ Temple W 79-71 69%     6 - 0 2 - 0 +12.4 +9.5 +2.8
  Jan 03, 2021 6   Houston L 60-74 27%     6 - 1 2 - 1 +1.8 -1.9 +3.3
  Jan 07, 2021 85   Cincinnati L 69-76 68%     6 - 2 2 - 2 -2.2 -6.6 +5.0
  Jan 11, 2021 129   Temple W 79-68 80%     7 - 2 3 - 2 +11.8 +12.6 -0.2
  Jan 23, 2021 91   @ Central Florida W 72-70 53%    
  Jan 26, 2021 63   @ Memphis L 73-74 40%    
  Jan 28, 2021 63   Memphis W 75-73 62%    
  Jan 31, 2021 6   @ Houston L 65-75 15%    
  Feb 06, 2021 98   South Florida W 73-66 76%    
  Feb 08, 2021 143   @ East Carolina W 75-69 68%    
  Feb 13, 2021 87   @ Tulsa W 69-68 50%    
  Feb 15, 2021 65   Wichita St. W 77-74 65%    
  Feb 17, 2021 182   Tulane W 77-64 91%    
  Feb 20, 2021 98   @ South Florida W 71-68 57%    
  Feb 23, 2021 91   Central Florida W 74-68 73%    
  Feb 28, 2021 65   @ Wichita St. L 75-76 43%    
  Mar 04, 2021 85   @ Cincinnati W 76-75 50%    
  Mar 07, 2021 87   Tulsa W 71-66 71%    
Projected Record 15 - 8 11 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected American Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.9 2.3 1.2 0.2 6.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.9 8.2 10.7 7.0 2.0 0.1 31.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.7 7.4 6.7 2.1 0.1 19.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 6.5 5.5 1.4 0.1 15.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.4 5.6 4.9 1.2 0.1 0.0 13.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.7 3.2 2.9 0.4 0.0 7.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.8 0.3 0.0 4.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.5 6.7 10.9 14.8 17.0 16.5 13.6 9.0 4.3 1.4 0.2 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.2    0.2
16-4 89.5% 1.2    0.8 0.4
15-5 54.5% 2.3    1.1 1.2 0.0
14-6 20.8% 1.9    0.6 1.2 0.2 0.0
13-7 4.8% 0.7    0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.4% 6.4 2.7 3.2 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.2% 100.0% 37.1% 62.9% 2.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 1.4% 99.9% 30.5% 69.4% 4.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
15-5 4.3% 97.5% 24.8% 72.7% 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 96.7%
14-6 9.0% 88.6% 20.6% 68.0% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.8 2.0 1.4 0.3 0.0 1.0 85.7%
13-7 13.6% 69.4% 15.6% 53.7% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.5 3.2 1.6 0.1 4.2 63.7%
12-8 16.5% 47.1% 12.7% 34.5% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.8 2.8 0.3 0.0 8.7 39.5%
11-9 17.0% 24.4% 8.5% 15.8% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 12.9 17.3%
10-10 14.8% 10.8% 6.3% 4.5% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 13.2 4.8%
9-11 10.9% 4.9% 4.3% 0.6% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 10.4 0.7%
8-12 6.7% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 13.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.5 0.0%
7-13 3.5% 1.8% 1.8% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.5
6-14 1.5% 0.9% 0.9% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5
5-15 0.5% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.5
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 37.6% 10.8% 26.8% 9.9 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.9 2.6 4.3 6.6 9.3 8.0 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 62.4 30.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.9 30.8 51.3 17.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 2.8 16.7 22.2 30.6 30.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 3.6 5.0 10.0 40.0 20.0 20.0 5.0