Memphis
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.1#63
Expected Predictive Rating+4.7#108
Pace78.9#26
Improvement+2.4#55

Offense
Total Offense+0.2#168
First Shot-2.3#235
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#51
Layup/Dunks+2.4#88
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#117
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#296
Freethrows-1.6#275
Improvement-0.1#179

Defense
Total Defense+9.0#4
First Shot+8.0#7
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#112
Layups/Dunks+5.2#23
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#113
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#76
Freethrows-0.6#213
Improvement+2.5#26
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.5% 0.8% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.2% 22.9% 11.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 11.1% 14.1% 5.0%
Average Seed 10.7 10.5 11.4
.500 or above 85.1% 91.2% 72.8%
.500 or above in Conference 76.6% 84.8% 60.0%
Conference Champion 6.2% 8.1% 2.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four4.0% 4.7% 2.5%
First Round17.3% 20.7% 10.6%
Second Round7.0% 8.7% 3.7%
Sweet Sixteen2.3% 2.8% 1.1%
Elite Eight0.7% 0.9% 0.4%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: East Carolina (Away) - 67.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 11 - 3
Quad 24 - 65 - 9
Quad 36 - 312 - 12
Quad 45 - 016 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 84   St. Mary's W 73-56 59%     1 - 0 +23.7 +2.3 +20.6
  Nov 26, 2020 86   Western Kentucky L 69-75 60%     1 - 1 +0.6 -1.8 +2.5
  Nov 27, 2020 72   Virginia Commonwealth L 59-70 57%     1 - 2 -3.6 -9.2 +6.0
  Dec 02, 2020 280   Arkansas St. W 83-54 94%     2 - 2 +19.9 -4.0 +21.0
  Dec 04, 2020 281   Central Arkansas W 85-68 95%     3 - 2 +7.8 -12.7 +16.9
  Dec 08, 2020 348   Mississippi Valley W 94-57 99.8%    4 - 2 +6.7 -2.5 +6.0
  Dec 12, 2020 64   Auburn L 71-74 51%     4 - 3 +5.8 -3.9 +9.9
  Dec 16, 2020 182   @ Tulane W 80-74 81%     5 - 3 1 - 0 +6.0 +3.9 +1.7
  Dec 21, 2020 87   Tulsa L 49-56 67%     5 - 4 1 - 1 -2.3 -18.2 +15.8
  Dec 29, 2020 98   South Florida W 58-57 72%     6 - 4 2 - 1 +4.0 -6.5 +10.6
  Jan 17, 2021 87   @ Tulsa L 57-58 53%     6 - 5 2 - 2 +7.3 -3.4 +10.6
  Jan 21, 2021 65   Wichita St. W 72-52 59%     7 - 5 3 - 2 +26.7 +2.0 +24.8
  Jan 24, 2021 143   @ East Carolina W 71-65 67%    
  Jan 26, 2021 61   SMU W 74-73 60%    
  Jan 28, 2021 61   @ SMU L 73-75 38%    
  Feb 01, 2021 91   @ Central Florida W 68-67 51%    
  Feb 03, 2021 91   Central Florida W 70-65 72%    
  Feb 06, 2021 143   East Carolina W 73-64 84%    
  Feb 11, 2021 85   Cincinnati W 74-70 70%    
  Feb 14, 2021 6   @ Houston L 61-71 15%    
  Feb 18, 2021 65   @ Wichita St. L 71-72 42%    
  Feb 21, 2021 129   Temple W 73-65 81%    
  Feb 24, 2021 182   Tulane W 73-60 90%    
  Feb 28, 2021 85   @ Cincinnati W 72-71 48%    
  Mar 03, 2021 98   @ South Florida W 67-65 55%    
  Mar 06, 2021 6   Houston L 63-70 31%    
Projected Record 15 - 11 11 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected American Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.1 2.3 0.8 0.1 6.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.6 7.4 9.5 5.4 1.0 26.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 3.3 8.6 7.8 2.7 0.2 22.9 3rd
4th 0.1 2.6 7.6 6.1 1.8 0.1 18.3 4th
5th 0.0 1.6 5.7 4.6 1.0 0.1 12.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 3.1 2.7 0.5 0.0 7.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.6 1.8 0.3 0.0 3.9 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 1.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 3.5 6.8 11.5 16.1 18.3 17.1 13.2 7.7 3.3 0.8 0.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-4 100.0% 0.8    0.7 0.1
15-5 68.7% 2.3    1.2 1.1 0.0
14-6 27.1% 2.1    0.6 1.2 0.3 0.0
13-7 6.2% 0.8    0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.2% 6.2 2.7 2.9 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.1% 100.0% 43.1% 56.9% 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.8% 96.2% 29.3% 66.9% 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 94.6%
15-5 3.3% 83.6% 23.4% 60.2% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.5 78.6%
14-6 7.7% 60.6% 18.4% 42.2% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.5 0.7 0.0 0.0 3.0 51.7%
13-7 13.2% 36.4% 14.5% 21.9% 11.1 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 1.6 0.2 0.0 8.4 25.6%
12-8 17.1% 16.8% 10.5% 6.4% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.4 0.2 0.0 14.2 7.1%
11-9 18.3% 9.2% 8.0% 1.2% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.3 0.0 16.6 1.3%
10-10 16.1% 5.4% 5.4% 0.1% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.1 15.3 0.1%
9-11 11.5% 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 11.1 0.0%
8-12 6.8% 2.5% 2.5% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.6
7-13 3.5% 1.2% 1.2% 15.6 0.0 0.0 3.4
6-14 1.2% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.2
5-15 0.3% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.3
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 19.2% 9.2% 10.0% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.8 3.1 5.1 5.4 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 80.8 11.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 2.4 12.9 38.7 41.9 6.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 4.7 18.2 22.7 36.4 18.2 4.5