Drexel
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.9#173
Expected Predictive Rating-4.3#224
Pace65.0#287
Improvement-2.5#303

Offense
Total Offense+0.2#161
First Shot+2.0#121
After Offensive Rebound-1.7#271
Layup/Dunks+2.7#74
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#143
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#217
Freethrows+0.0#178
Improvement-1.9#288

Defense
Total Defense-1.1#199
First Shot-2.8#263
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#66
Layups/Dunks-4.2#297
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#337
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#28
Freethrows+0.4#157
Improvement-0.6#226
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.5% 14.0% 8.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.4 15.8
.500 or above 71.9% 83.4% 56.0%
.500 or above in Conference 13.9% 16.4% 10.5%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 11.1% 8.5% 14.8%
First Four4.2% 3.8% 4.8%
First Round10.0% 12.7% 6.4%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: William & Mary (Away) - 57.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 33 - 53 - 7
Quad 410 - 413 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 28, 2020 59   @ Pittsburgh L 74-83 12%     0 - 1 +2.6 +9.4 -6.8
  Dec 02, 2020 283   Quinnipiac W 66-48 74%     1 - 1 +10.5 -2.6 +13.7
  Dec 03, 2020 283   Quinnipiac W 70-58 74%     2 - 1 +4.5 +6.7 -0.9
  Dec 06, 2020 322   Coppin St. W 69-54 87%     3 - 1 +1.8 -9.7 +11.0
  Dec 12, 2020 183   La Salle L 48-58 61%     3 - 2 -13.7 -21.5 +7.0
  Dec 17, 2020 199   Saint Joseph's W 81-77 64%     4 - 2 -0.7 -1.1 +0.2
  Dec 19, 2020 314   @ Fairleigh Dickinson W 85-68 76%     5 - 2 +8.7 +2.6 +5.4
  Jan 09, 2021 201   @ College of Charleston L 60-61 51%     5 - 3 0 - 1 -2.2 -8.1 +5.8
  Jan 10, 2021 201   @ College of Charleston L 68-73 51%     5 - 4 0 - 2 -6.2 +3.6 -10.6
  Jan 16, 2021 263   William & Mary W 82-58 75%     6 - 4 1 - 2 +16.1 +12.1 +6.0
  Jan 17, 2021 263   William & Mary L 64-69 75%     6 - 5 1 - 3 -12.9 -10.7 -2.4
  Jan 23, 2021 263   @ William & Mary W 70-67 58%    
  Jan 30, 2021 142   Northeastern L 65-66 53%    
  Jan 31, 2021 142   Northeastern L 65-66 51%    
  Feb 06, 2021 175   @ Hofstra L 69-71 38%    
  Feb 07, 2021 175   @ Hofstra L 69-71 40%    
  Feb 11, 2021 226   Delaware W 69-64 70%    
  Feb 13, 2021 226   @ Delaware W 67-66 50%    
  Feb 20, 2021 214   Towson W 71-66 70%    
  Feb 21, 2021 214   Towson W 71-66 71%    
  Feb 27, 2021 206   @ James Madison W 75-74 48%    
  Feb 28, 2021 206   @ James Madison W 75-74 47%    
Projected Record 12 - 10 6 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 1st
2nd 0.4 2.7 2.5 0.5 6.1 2nd
3rd 0.5 5.3 5.3 1.0 0.0 12.0 3rd
4th 0.3 5.0 6.2 1.5 0.0 13.0 4th
5th 0.0 2.8 8.4 2.7 0.1 14.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 8.0 4.4 0.2 14.1 6th
7th 0.5 5.7 7.2 0.9 14.3 7th
8th 0.5 2.8 6.2 1.6 0.1 11.1 8th
9th 0.4 2.2 5.1 2.3 0.1 10.3 9th
10th 0.3 0.8 2.4 1.2 0.1 4.7 10th
Total 0.3 1.2 5.1 9.7 15.8 20.0 19.1 14.9 9.7 3.6 0.6 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 12.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0
10-8 5.1% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
9-9 0.4% 0.0    0.0
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.6% 42.0% 42.0% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3
10-8 3.6% 25.3% 25.3% 14.7 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.2 2.7
9-9 9.7% 17.0% 17.0% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.6 8.1
8-10 14.9% 17.9% 17.9% 15.5 0.2 1.0 1.4 12.2
7-11 19.1% 15.3% 15.3% 15.7 0.0 0.9 2.0 16.2
6-12 20.0% 9.2% 9.2% 15.9 0.3 1.6 18.1
5-13 15.8% 4.1% 4.1% 15.9 0.0 0.6 15.2
4-14 9.7% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.3 9.4
3-15 5.1% 5.6% 5.6% 16.0 0.3 4.8
2-16 1.2% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 1.2
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18
Total 100% 11.5% 11.5% 0.0% 15.5 0.1 0.9 3.4 7.1 88.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 14.1 16.0 54.0 30.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 0.1%