Pittsburgh
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.8#65
Expected Predictive Rating+9.7#61
Pace71.0#147
Improvement+2.6#50

Offense
Total Offense+3.5#85
First Shot+0.3#171
After Offensive Rebound+3.2#26
Layup/Dunks+1.5#122
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#200
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#290
Freethrows+3.0#21
Improvement+3.0#29

Defense
Total Defense+5.3#49
First Shot+5.2#40
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#173
Layups/Dunks+1.5#126
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#113
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#147
Freethrows+1.9#62
Improvement-0.4#212
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.4% 0.6% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 1.9% 3.1% 0.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28.6% 38.4% 16.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 27.4% 37.0% 15.6%
Average Seed 9.7 9.5 10.2
.500 or above 84.3% 93.4% 72.9%
.500 or above in Conference 18.2% 27.4% 6.8%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.2% 1.6%
First Four6.5% 7.6% 5.1%
First Round25.1% 34.3% 13.8%
Second Round10.8% 14.9% 5.6%
Sweet Sixteen2.9% 4.1% 1.5%
Elite Eight0.9% 1.2% 0.4%
Final Four0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Virginia Tech (Home) - 55.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 23 - 4
Quad 24 - 47 - 8
Quad 33 - 111 - 9
Quad 42 - 113 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 262   St. Francis (PA) L 70-80 93%     0 - 1 -18.0 -12.5 -4.8
  Nov 28, 2020 162   Drexel W 83-74 84%     1 - 1 +7.2 +8.9 -1.6
  Dec 05, 2020 295   Northern Illinois W 89-59 95%     2 - 1 +19.9 +15.2 +5.6
  Dec 09, 2020 74   @ Northwestern W 71-70 48%     3 - 1 +10.2 -4.5 +14.6
  Dec 12, 2020 206   Gardner-Webb W 67-50 89%     4 - 1 +12.2 -16.2 +27.0
  Dec 16, 2020 102   @ Miami (FL) W 70-55 59%     5 - 1 1 - 0 +21.5 -0.3 +21.3
  Dec 22, 2020 38   Louisville L 54-64 45%     5 - 2 1 - 1 +0.0 -9.3 +8.5
  Jan 06, 2021 46   @ Syracuse W 63-60 35%     6 - 2 2 - 1 +15.7 -2.8 +18.5
  Jan 16, 2021 46   Syracuse W 96-76 48%     7 - 2 3 - 1 +29.3 +23.8 +5.0
  Jan 19, 2021 55   Duke W 79-73 50%     8 - 2 4 - 1 +14.7 +4.2 +10.2
  Jan 23, 2021 99   @ Wake Forest L 75-76 58%     8 - 3 4 - 2 +5.7 +4.8 +0.9
  Jan 26, 2021 26   North Carolina L 65-75 41%     8 - 4 4 - 3 +1.2 +3.2 -2.8
  Feb 03, 2021 56   Virginia Tech W 68-67 55%    
  Feb 10, 2021 38   @ Louisville L 67-72 29%    
  Feb 13, 2021 46   @ Syracuse L 71-75 31%    
  Feb 17, 2021 72   North Carolina St. W 75-72 64%    
  Feb 21, 2021 61   Clemson W 67-66 57%    
  Feb 24, 2021 6   @ Virginia L 56-67 13%    
  Feb 28, 2021 72   @ North Carolina St. L 73-74 42%    
  Mar 02, 2021 99   Wake Forest W 76-71 73%    
  Mar 05, 2021 61   @ Clemson L 65-68 36%    
Projected Record 12 - 9 8 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.3 1.2 0.6 0.0 2.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.5 2.3 0.3 0.0 5.3 4th
5th 0.0 2.3 5.1 1.1 0.0 8.6 5th
6th 0.8 7.0 3.3 0.1 11.1 6th
7th 0.1 4.7 7.4 0.7 0.0 12.9 7th
8th 0.0 1.3 9.3 2.6 0.0 13.2 8th
9th 0.2 5.7 7.0 0.3 13.1 9th
10th 0.0 1.7 8.6 1.8 0.0 12.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 5.0 4.4 0.1 9.9 11th
12th 0.0 1.7 4.3 0.7 0.0 6.7 12th
13th 0.3 1.9 1.0 0.0 3.3 13th
14th 0.4 0.5 0.1 1.0 14th
15th 0.1 0.0 0.1 15th
Total 0.9 4.7 12.1 20.7 23.7 19.7 12.0 4.9 1.2 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 16.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 2.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

With games being cancelled frequently this season, the conference records below may not be accurate. The number of wins in the table below are based on games that are currently scheduled and appear in the schedule above.
Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.1% 100.0% 14.3% 85.7% 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-8 1.2% 98.8% 10.3% 88.5% 6.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.6%
11-9 4.9% 95.7% 6.5% 89.2% 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.2 95.4%
10-10 12.0% 78.0% 3.6% 74.4% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.7 2.2 2.4 1.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 2.6 77.2%
9-11 19.7% 45.5% 2.1% 43.4% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.7 2.6 0.3 0.0 10.8 44.4%
8-12 23.7% 15.8% 1.1% 14.6% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.7 0.5 0.0 0.0 20.0 14.8%
7-13 20.7% 2.6% 0.6% 2.1% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 20.1 2.1%
6-14 12.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.1 0.0%
5-15 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 4.6
4-16 0.9% 0.3% 0.3% 15.0 0.0 0.9
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 28.6% 1.7% 26.9% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.1 3.7 4.4 4.9 5.5 5.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 71.4 27.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 3.6 10.3 37.9 41.4 6.9 3.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 4.2 24.6 35.1 35.1 5.3
Lose Out 0.6%