Illinois
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+17.1#9
Expected Predictive Rating+14.0#33
Pace74.1#68
Improvement+0.6#131

Offense
Total Offense+10.0#8
First Shot+8.5#13
After Offensive Rebound+1.6#87
Layup/Dunks+6.4#16
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#97
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#167
Freethrows+0.6#142
Improvement-1.1#249

Defense
Total Defense+7.0#21
First Shot+5.7#28
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#90
Layups/Dunks+7.1#7
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.9#345
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#59
Freethrows+1.1#122
Improvement+1.7#62
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.2% 1.8% 0.3%
#1 Seed 7.5% 10.3% 3.2%
Top 2 Seed 22.3% 29.2% 11.6%
Top 4 Seed 61.0% 70.9% 45.7%
Top 6 Seed 80.8% 88.2% 69.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 96.5% 98.6% 93.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 95.9% 98.3% 92.3%
Average Seed 4.3 3.8 5.2
.500 or above 98.4% 99.7% 96.3%
.500 or above in Conference 92.2% 97.2% 84.6%
Conference Champion 10.1% 13.9% 4.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.8% 1.3% 5.2%
First Round95.5% 98.1% 91.4%
Second Round80.3% 85.2% 72.8%
Sweet Sixteen51.0% 55.9% 43.5%
Elite Eight27.2% 30.5% 22.0%
Final Four13.7% 15.4% 10.9%
Championship Game6.6% 7.6% 5.0%
National Champion2.9% 3.4% 2.1%

Next Game: Michigan St. (Away) - 60.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 54 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 38 - 8
Quad 25 - 213 - 10
Quad 32 - 015 - 10
Quad 42 - 017 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 314   N.C. A&T W 122-60 99%     1 - 0 +49.8 +25.9 +15.4
  Nov 26, 2020 347   Chicago St. W 97-38 99.8%    2 - 0 +36.6 +13.6 +20.2
  Nov 27, 2020 128   Ohio W 77-75 93%     3 - 0 +2.8 -2.7 +5.5
  Dec 02, 2020 2   Baylor L 69-82 29%     3 - 1 +9.7 +8.7 +0.6
  Dec 08, 2020 53   @ Duke W 83-68 68%     4 - 1 +27.3 +9.1 +17.2
  Dec 12, 2020 38   @ Missouri L 78-81 64%     4 - 2 +10.4 +6.9 +3.7
  Dec 15, 2020 25   Minnesota W 92-65 70%     5 - 2 1 - 0 +38.5 +12.0 +22.8
  Dec 20, 2020 48   @ Rutgers L 88-91 67%     5 - 3 1 - 1 +9.5 +18.1 -8.5
  Dec 23, 2020 52   @ Penn St. W 98-81 68%     6 - 3 2 - 1 +29.4 +26.5 +2.4
  Dec 26, 2020 23   Indiana W 69-60 70%     7 - 3 3 - 1 +20.8 +6.3 +14.9
  Jan 02, 2021 28   Purdue W 66-58 71%     8 - 3 4 - 1 +19.2 +0.2 +19.2
  Jan 07, 2021 73   @ Northwestern W 81-56 77%     9 - 3 5 - 1 +34.2 +12.4 +21.9
  Jan 10, 2021 56   Maryland L 63-66 80%     9 - 4 5 - 2 +5.3 -0.8 +5.8
  Jan 16, 2021 20   Ohio St. L 81-87 67%     9 - 5 5 - 3 +6.6 +10.3 -3.6
  Jan 19, 2021 52   Penn St. W 79-65 79%     10 - 5 6 - 3 +22.7 +3.9 +18.0
  Jan 23, 2021 40   @ Michigan St. W 78-74 61%    
  Jan 29, 2021 3   Iowa W 84-83 56%    
  Feb 02, 2021 23   @ Indiana W 74-72 52%    
  Feb 06, 2021 11   Wisconsin W 70-68 63%    
  Feb 11, 2021 4   @ Michigan L 74-77 36%    
  Feb 16, 2021 73   Northwestern W 81-70 88%    
  Feb 20, 2021 25   @ Minnesota W 79-77 52%    
  Feb 24, 2021 122   Nebraska W 87-71 94%    
  Feb 27, 2021 11   @ Wisconsin L 68-69 41%    
  Mar 06, 2021 20   @ Ohio St. W 76-75 49%    
Projected Record 16 - 9 12 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.3 4.4 3.6 0.9 10.1 1st
2nd 0.0 1.4 7.3 6.0 1.1 0.0 15.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 7.6 8.7 1.5 0.0 18.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 5.2 9.4 2.4 0.1 17.3 4th
5th 0.0 2.3 8.5 3.7 0.2 14.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 5.0 4.3 0.4 10.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.9 4.0 0.7 0.0 6.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.3 1.0 0.0 3.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.1 1.7 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.7 5.8 12.6 19.7 22.6 19.8 11.9 4.7 0.9 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 98.9% 0.9    0.7 0.1
15-5 76.1% 3.6    2.1 1.3 0.2 0.0
14-6 36.5% 4.4    1.1 2.0 1.0 0.2 0.0
13-7 6.4% 1.3    0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 10.1% 10.1 4.0 3.8 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.9% 100.0% 35.7% 64.3% 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-5 4.7% 100.0% 29.9% 70.1% 1.6 2.4 2.0 0.3 0.0 100.0%
14-6 11.9% 100.0% 25.5% 74.5% 2.1 3.0 5.4 3.1 0.5 0.0 100.0%
13-7 19.8% 100.0% 19.5% 80.5% 2.9 1.2 5.0 8.6 4.1 0.8 0.1 100.0%
12-8 22.6% 100.0% 13.7% 86.3% 3.8 0.2 1.9 7.3 7.6 4.4 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-9 19.7% 99.9% 9.5% 90.4% 5.2 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.0 5.3 4.6 2.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
10-10 12.6% 98.0% 6.3% 91.7% 7.4 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.0 2.2 2.3 1.6 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.3 97.8%
9-11 5.8% 71.6% 4.3% 67.3% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.4 0.5 0.1 1.6 70.3%
8-12 1.7% 21.9% 1.8% 20.1% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.4 20.4%
7-13 0.3% 5.0% 1.4% 3.6% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 3.6%
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 96.5% 14.7% 81.8% 4.3 7.5 14.8 21.8 16.9 11.9 8.0 4.9 3.3 2.0 1.5 1.4 1.7 0.7 0.1 3.5 95.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.1 88.5 11.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 1.2 81.9 17.0 1.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 1.3 67.4 32.6