Wisconsin
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.7#14
Expected Predictive Rating+15.0#26
Pace61.6#335
Improvement-0.6#206

Offense
Total Offense+7.3#29
First Shot+8.4#14
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#242
Layup/Dunks+2.5#81
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#249
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.3#32
Freethrows+2.0#53
Improvement-1.9#292

Defense
Total Defense+8.4#7
First Shot+6.2#24
After Offensive Rebounds+2.3#35
Layups/Dunks+1.1#149
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#117
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#126
Freethrows+3.0#20
Improvement+1.3#92
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.4% 0.7% 0.1%
#1 Seed 3.8% 5.6% 1.4%
Top 2 Seed 14.3% 20.6% 6.2%
Top 4 Seed 49.5% 61.8% 33.5%
Top 6 Seed 76.8% 86.4% 64.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 96.3% 98.9% 92.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 95.9% 98.8% 92.3%
Average Seed 4.8 4.2 5.7
.500 or above 99.6% 99.9% 99.2%
.500 or above in Conference 87.8% 95.2% 78.2%
Conference Champion 6.8% 9.8% 2.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.8% 0.7% 3.3%
First Round95.6% 98.7% 91.6%
Second Round75.3% 80.6% 68.4%
Sweet Sixteen43.6% 48.5% 37.3%
Elite Eight20.6% 24.3% 15.9%
Final Four9.8% 11.6% 7.5%
Championship Game3.8% 4.8% 2.6%
National Champion1.5% 2.0% 0.8%

Next Game: Maryland (Away) - 56.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 64 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 28 - 8
Quad 26 - 214 - 10
Quad 32 - 016 - 10
Quad 43 - 019 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 248   Eastern Illinois W 77-67 97%     1 - 0 +2.7 -0.5 +3.1
  Nov 27, 2020 343   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 92-58 99.6%    2 - 0 +14.8 +8.7 +5.4
  Dec 01, 2020 233   Green Bay W 82-42 97%     3 - 0 +33.3 +8.6 +27.5
  Dec 04, 2020 64   @ Marquette L 65-67 68%     3 - 1 +8.9 +3.5 +5.2
  Dec 09, 2020 68   Rhode Island W 73-62 81%     4 - 1 +17.4 +3.8 +13.5
  Dec 15, 2020 28   Loyola Chicago W 77-63 69%     5 - 1 +24.6 +13.2 +11.9
  Dec 19, 2020 35   Louisville W 85-48 71%     6 - 1 +47.0 +23.2 +26.6
  Dec 22, 2020 122   Nebraska W 67-53 90%     7 - 1 1 - 0 +15.5 -1.1 +17.5
  Dec 25, 2020 44   @ Michigan St. W 85-76 60%     8 - 1 2 - 0 +22.0 +20.7 +1.5
  Dec 28, 2020 43   Maryland L 64-70 73%     8 - 2 2 - 1 +3.3 +1.8 +0.9
  Dec 31, 2020 31   Minnesota W 71-59 69%     9 - 2 3 - 1 +22.5 +10.1 +13.5
  Jan 07, 2021 23   Indiana W 80-73 2OT 65%     10 - 2 4 - 1 +18.7 +8.1 +10.1
  Jan 12, 2021 3   @ Michigan L 54-77 31%     10 - 3 4 - 2 -2.2 -4.5 +0.4
  Jan 15, 2021 47   @ Rutgers W 60-54 62%     11 - 3 5 - 2 +18.6 -0.6 +19.8
  Jan 20, 2021 73   Northwestern W 68-52 83%     12 - 3 6 - 2 +21.6 +7.0 +16.9
  Jan 23, 2021 17   Ohio St. L 62-74 59%     12 - 4 6 - 3 +1.3 -4.9 +5.8
  Jan 30, 2021 43   @ Maryland W 67-64 57%    
  Jan 30, 2021 50   @ Penn St. W 71-68 58%    
  Feb 02, 2021 50   Penn St. W 73-66 77%    
  Feb 06, 2021 9   @ Illinois L 68-71 35%    
  Feb 11, 2021 122   @ Nebraska W 75-64 81%    
  Feb 14, 2021 3   Michigan L 66-67 49%    
  Feb 18, 2021 4   Iowa L 74-75 51%    
  Feb 21, 2021 73   @ Northwestern W 70-64 68%    
  Feb 27, 2021 9   Illinois W 70-69 56%    
  Mar 02, 2021 27   @ Purdue W 63-62 50%    
  Mar 07, 2021 4   @ Iowa L 72-77 30%    
Projected Record 18 - 9 12 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.5 3.1 1.6 0.4 6.8 1st
2nd 0.3 5.0 11.0 6.6 1.2 0.1 24.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.6 11.0 4.5 0.2 19.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 8.0 4.9 0.2 14.2 4th
5th 0.1 4.1 6.7 0.8 0.0 11.8 5th
6th 1.1 6.1 1.8 0.0 9.0 6th
7th 0.3 3.4 3.3 0.2 7.1 7th
8th 0.7 2.7 0.4 0.0 3.9 8th
9th 0.2 1.4 0.7 0.0 2.4 9th
10th 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.1 0.8 3.3 8.1 15.2 20.5 21.9 17.2 9.9 2.8 0.5 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 80.0% 0.4    0.3 0.1
15-5 57.3% 1.6    0.8 0.8 0.0
14-6 31.6% 3.1    1.2 1.5 0.4 0.0
13-7 8.9% 1.5    0.2 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0
12-8 0.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.8% 6.8 2.5 2.9 1.1 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.5% 100.0% 25.6% 74.4% 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 2.8% 100.0% 25.8% 74.2% 1.8 1.1 1.3 0.4 0.0 100.0%
14-6 9.9% 100.0% 18.8% 81.2% 2.3 1.6 4.4 3.1 0.6 0.1 100.0%
13-7 17.2% 100.0% 16.2% 83.8% 3.2 0.6 3.6 7.0 4.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-8 21.9% 100.0% 10.8% 89.2% 4.1 0.1 0.9 5.8 7.0 5.5 1.9 0.5 0.0 100.0%
11-9 20.5% 100.0% 7.1% 92.9% 5.2 0.0 0.1 1.7 4.0 6.2 5.2 2.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
10-10 15.2% 97.8% 5.4% 92.4% 6.7 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.5 3.8 3.0 2.1 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.3 97.7%
9-11 8.1% 87.1% 2.3% 84.7% 9.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.0 86.8%
8-12 3.3% 50.5% 1.5% 48.9% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.6 49.7%
7-13 0.8% 16.0% 2.0% 14.0% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.6 14.3%
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 96.3% 10.4% 85.9% 4.8 3.8 10.6 18.4 16.8 15.8 11.5 7.0 4.0 2.8 2.4 1.8 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.7 95.9%