Duke
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.5#52
Expected Predictive Rating+7.5#78
Pace72.5#108
Improvement+1.3#89

Offense
Total Offense+7.0#33
First Shot+4.2#64
After Offensive Rebound+2.8#39
Layup/Dunks+4.8#37
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#275
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#81
Freethrows-1.2#245
Improvement+2.3#39

Defense
Total Defense+3.5#81
First Shot+2.1#101
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#81
Layups/Dunks-2.1#243
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#69
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#79
Freethrows+0.0#187
Improvement-1.0#252
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.4% 1.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.1% 2.8% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.2% 32.8% 14.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 16.9% 27.3% 11.1%
Average Seed 9.9 9.5 10.4
.500 or above 64.5% 80.7% 55.1%
.500 or above in Conference 55.2% 73.3% 44.8%
Conference Champion 5.1% 9.3% 2.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.1% 1.3%
First Four4.6% 5.9% 3.9%
First Round19.2% 30.0% 12.9%
Second Round9.9% 15.7% 6.6%
Sweet Sixteen3.3% 6.0% 1.8%
Elite Eight1.3% 2.3% 0.7%
Final Four0.5% 1.2% 0.1%
Championship Game0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisville (Away) - 36.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 42 - 6
Quad 25 - 36 - 10
Quad 34 - 110 - 11
Quad 42 - 013 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 28, 2020 322   Coppin St. W 81-71 98%     1 - 0 -3.1 -1.8 -2.2
  Dec 01, 2020 41   Michigan St. L 69-75 54%     1 - 1 +3.6 -5.7 +9.9
  Dec 04, 2020 229   Bellarmine W 76-54 93%     2 - 1 +15.9 +4.9 +11.2
  Dec 08, 2020 9   Illinois L 68-83 33%     2 - 2 +0.2 -3.2 +4.4
  Dec 16, 2020 81   @ Notre Dame W 75-65 57%     3 - 2 1 - 0 +18.6 +11.4 +8.5
  Jan 06, 2021 106   Boston College W 83-82 77%     4 - 2 2 - 0 +3.7 +6.4 -2.7
  Jan 09, 2021 103   Wake Forest W 79-68 77%     5 - 2 3 - 0 +13.9 +12.8 +1.9
  Jan 12, 2021 43   @ Virginia Tech L 67-74 41%     5 - 3 3 - 1 +5.9 +1.5 +4.4
  Jan 19, 2021 59   @ Pittsburgh L 73-79 46%     5 - 4 3 - 2 +5.6 +3.2 +2.8
  Jan 23, 2021 39   @ Louisville L 71-74 37%    
  Jan 26, 2021 51   Georgia Tech W 75-73 61%    
  Jan 30, 2021 54   Clemson W 70-68 61%    
  Feb 01, 2021 93   @ Miami (FL) W 74-71 58%    
  Feb 06, 2021 34   North Carolina W 76-75 57%    
  Feb 09, 2021 81   Notre Dame W 80-74 74%    
  Feb 13, 2021 67   @ North Carolina St. W 77-76 46%    
  Feb 16, 2021 103   @ Wake Forest W 78-74 59%    
  Feb 20, 2021 8   Virginia L 62-67 37%    
  Feb 22, 2021 47   Syracuse W 77-76 58%    
  Feb 27, 2021 39   Louisville W 73-72 56%    
  Mar 02, 2021 51   @ Georgia Tech L 73-75 38%    
  Mar 06, 2021 34   @ North Carolina L 74-77 35%    
Projected Record 12 - 10 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.3 1.6 2.0 1.0 0.2 5.1 1st
2nd 0.5 3.2 3.9 1.5 0.3 9.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 3.6 4.9 1.8 0.2 10.7 3rd
4th 0.0 2.6 6.8 2.1 0.1 11.6 4th
5th 0.7 6.4 3.1 0.2 10.4 5th
6th 0.1 3.1 6.1 0.9 10.2 6th
7th 1.2 6.3 1.6 0.0 9.1 7th
8th 0.3 3.7 4.5 0.2 8.7 8th
9th 0.0 1.7 4.6 1.2 0.0 7.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 3.2 2.5 0.1 6.5 10th
11th 0.0 2.1 2.5 0.2 4.8 11th
12th 0.0 1.0 1.8 0.4 3.1 12th
13th 0.3 1.0 0.5 0.1 1.9 13th
14th 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.8 14th
15th 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 15th
Total 0.2 0.7 2.4 5.2 8.1 12.3 16.0 17.2 14.9 10.7 7.4 3.6 1.3 0.2 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
15-5 78.9% 1.0    0.8 0.2
14-6 54.4% 2.0    0.8 0.9 0.2 0.0
13-7 21.1% 1.6    0.3 0.6 0.6 0.1
12-8 3.2% 0.3    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.1% 5.1 2.0 1.8 1.0 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.2% 100.0% 59.1% 40.9% 2.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 1.3% 99.9% 12.2% 87.7% 6.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-6 3.6% 94.7% 14.9% 79.8% 8.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.2 93.8%
13-7 7.4% 76.6% 12.7% 63.9% 9.7 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.8 1.7 73.2%
12-8 10.7% 51.5% 8.7% 42.8% 10.7 0.0 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.5 0.3 5.2 46.9%
11-9 14.9% 21.3% 8.8% 12.5% 11.0 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.2 11.7 13.7%
10-10 17.2% 8.2% 4.3% 3.9% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.2 15.8 4.1%
9-11 16.0% 2.2% 1.7% 0.5% 11.9 0.1 0.2 0.1 15.6 0.5%
8-12 12.3% 1.2% 1.2% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 12.1
7-13 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 8.1
6-14 5.2% 0.7% 0.7% 15.0 0.0 5.1
5-15 2.4% 2.4
4-16 0.7% 0.7
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 21.2% 5.2% 16.0% 9.9 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 1.2 2.5 3.4 3.6 4.3 4.1 0.8 0.0 0.1 78.8 16.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.7 66.7 33.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 4.9 2.6 97.4
Lose Out 0.2%