Oregon
Pac-12
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.4#20
Expected Predictive Rating+15.4#25
Pace70.7#160
Improvement-0.2#186

Offense
Total Offense+8.3#16
First Shot+6.9#29
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#93
Layup/Dunks+4.2#45
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#228
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#50
Freethrows-0.6#214
Improvement-0.6#213

Defense
Total Defense+6.0#37
First Shot+4.7#50
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#91
Layups/Dunks+2.4#101
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#133
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#172
Freethrows+1.5#87
Improvement+0.4#150
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.4% 0.4% 1.1%
#1 Seed 1.8% 1.8% 1.2%
Top 2 Seed 7.3% 7.8% 1.2%
Top 4 Seed 26.6% 27.7% 10.4%
Top 6 Seed 47.3% 48.9% 25.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 89.0% 89.9% 75.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 86.0% 87.1% 71.6%
Average Seed 6.3 6.2 7.7
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 98.8%
.500 or above in Conference 95.5% 96.5% 81.1%
Conference Champion 7.6% 8.1% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.1% 2.8% 6.9%
First Round87.5% 88.7% 70.7%
Second Round60.8% 62.0% 43.5%
Sweet Sixteen28.9% 29.6% 19.1%
Elite Eight13.2% 13.4% 9.7%
Final Four5.6% 5.9% 1.2%
Championship Game2.5% 2.6% 0.6%
National Champion0.8% 0.9% 0.0%

Next Game: Oregon St. (Home) - 93.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 42 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 24 - 6
Quad 23 - 17 - 6
Quad 38 - 115 - 7
Quad 45 - 019 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 02, 2020 38   Missouri L 75-83 60%     0 - 1 +3.6 +8.1 -4.4
  Dec 04, 2020 40   Seton Hall W 83-70 61%     1 - 1 +24.5 +14.3 +10.2
  Dec 07, 2020 131   Eastern Washington W 69-52 89%     2 - 1 +17.8 -5.8 +23.2
  Dec 09, 2020 283   Florida A&M W 87-66 98%     3 - 1 +11.8 +5.5 +5.0
  Dec 12, 2020 135   @ Washington W 74-71 83%     4 - 1 1 - 0 +7.2 +0.6 +6.6
  Dec 17, 2020 88   San Francisco W 74-64 82%     5 - 1 +14.6 +3.4 +11.1
  Dec 19, 2020 287   Portland W 80-41 98%     6 - 1 +29.5 +2.8 +26.2
  Dec 31, 2020 136   California W 82-69 90%     7 - 1 2 - 0 +13.2 +8.9 +4.4
  Jan 02, 2021 50   Stanford W 73-56 71%     8 - 1 3 - 0 +25.7 +1.6 +23.0
  Jan 07, 2021 19   @ Colorado L 72-79 43%     8 - 2 3 - 1 +9.2 +4.9 +4.4
  Jan 09, 2021 76   @ Utah W 79-73 70%     9 - 2 4 - 1 +14.9 +12.0 +3.1
  Jan 23, 2021 140   Oregon St. W 78-63 93%    
  Jan 28, 2021 25   @ UCLA L 71-72 43%    
  Jan 30, 2021 24   @ USC L 72-73 42%    
  Feb 01, 2021 25   @ UCLA L 71-72 43%    
  Feb 04, 2021 126   Washington St. W 76-63 91%    
  Feb 06, 2021 135   Washington W 82-68 92%    
  Feb 11, 2021 77   @ Arizona St. W 81-75 64%    
  Feb 13, 2021 29   @ Arizona L 75-76 45%    
  Feb 18, 2021 19   Colorado W 74-72 61%    
  Feb 20, 2021 76   Utah W 75-66 83%    
  Feb 25, 2021 50   @ Stanford W 73-71 53%    
  Feb 27, 2021 136   @ California W 75-64 80%    
  Mar 06, 2021 140   @ Oregon St. W 76-65 80%    
Projected Record 18 - 6 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 2.7 2.9 1.4 7.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 5.0 5.3 1.6 0.0 12.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 6.7 9.9 2.7 0.0 20.7 3rd
4th 0.2 2.2 8.8 10.3 3.1 0.4 24.9 4th
5th 0.3 2.2 6.4 7.3 2.4 0.1 18.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.5 4.8 3.8 1.4 0.0 12.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.6 0.2 2.5 7th
8th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.0 7.8 12.7 18.8 20.4 18.7 11.1 4.6 1.4 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 99.9% 1.4    1.1 0.3
16-4 63.5% 2.9    1.5 1.2 0.2
15-5 24.0% 2.7    0.9 0.8 0.8 0.2
14-6 3.1% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 7.6% 7.6 3.5 2.5 1.2 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 1.4% 100.0% 61.0% 39.0% 1.6 0.7 0.5 0.2 100.0%
16-4 4.6% 100.0% 45.6% 54.4% 2.3 0.8 2.2 1.1 0.5 0.0 100.0%
15-5 11.1% 100.0% 35.1% 64.9% 3.6 0.3 2.1 3.5 2.5 2.1 0.5 0.2 100.0%
14-6 18.7% 99.8% 26.6% 73.2% 4.8 0.0 0.7 2.7 5.3 4.4 2.9 2.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 99.7%
13-7 20.4% 98.5% 22.9% 75.6% 6.4 0.0 0.8 2.1 3.7 3.6 4.9 2.8 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.3 98.0%
12-8 18.8% 93.8% 16.3% 77.5% 7.9 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.6 3.6 4.0 2.8 2.2 1.3 0.2 0.0 1.2 92.6%
11-9 12.7% 82.8% 10.4% 72.4% 9.4 0.2 0.5 0.5 2.0 2.0 1.8 2.3 0.9 0.2 2.2 80.8%
10-10 7.8% 54.0% 5.5% 48.5% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 1.4 0.9 0.2 3.6 51.3%
9-11 3.0% 23.3% 5.2% 18.1% 11.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.0 2.3 19.1%
8-12 1.3% 9.1% 3.1% 6.0% 12.3 0.1 0.0 1.2 6.2%
7-13 0.3% 14.2% 14.2% 13.0 0.0 0.2
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 89.0% 21.5% 67.5% 6.3 1.8 5.5 8.3 10.9 11.6 9.2 11.4 9.5 7.0 5.5 5.3 2.4 0.5 11.0 86.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 1.4 63.6 32.0 4.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 1.5 66.8 17.0 16.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 2.5 1.3 50.0 48.7