Cal St. Bakersfield
Big West
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.9#203
Expected Predictive Rating+1.8#152
Pace65.3#273
Improvement+3.2#15

Offense
Total Offense-3.6#279
First Shot-5.2#319
After Offensive Rebound+1.6#88
Layup/Dunks-5.6#334
2 Pt Jumpshots+8.7#4
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#269
Freethrows-5.2#355
Improvement-0.2#200

Defense
Total Defense+1.7#107
First Shot+3.2#79
After Offensive Rebounds-1.5#269
Layups/Dunks+4.4#42
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#7
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#304
Freethrows-1.6#272
Improvement+3.3#3
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.7% 5.0% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.4 15.1
.500 or above 42.8% 44.5% 18.8%
.500 or above in Conference 52.2% 53.4% 36.0%
Conference Champion 3.6% 3.7% 1.6%
Last Place in Conference 5.6% 5.2% 11.0%
First Four0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
First Round4.6% 4.8% 1.3%
Second Round0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Idaho (Home) - 93.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 11 - 2
Quad 21 - 32 - 5
Quad 33 - 55 - 11
Quad 49 - 413 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 5   @ UCLA L 58-95 3%     0 - 1 -16.3 -10.9 -2.3
  Nov 18, 2021 316   @ Northern Arizona L 64-74 64%     0 - 2 -15.7 -12.2 -3.7
  Nov 26, 2021 67   @ Boise St. W 46-39 13%     1 - 2 +17.3 -12.6 +30.9
  Dec 11, 2021 350   Idaho W 75-59 93%    
  Dec 15, 2021 147   @ Abilene Christian L 62-68 27%    
  Dec 18, 2021 75   @ Colorado L 59-71 14%    
  Dec 21, 2021 242   Dartmouth W 67-62 68%    
  Dec 30, 2021 192   Cal St. Fullerton W 66-64 59%    
  Jan 01, 2022 288   Long Beach St. W 76-68 76%    
  Jan 06, 2022 297   @ Cal St. Northridge W 66-63 60%    
  Jan 08, 2022 95   @ UC Santa Barbara L 60-70 18%    
  Jan 13, 2022 214   UC Davis W 70-67 61%    
  Jan 15, 2022 132   UC Riverside L 60-61 45%    
  Jan 18, 2022 315   Cal Poly W 67-57 80%    
  Jan 20, 2022 186   Hawaii W 68-66 57%    
  Jan 27, 2022 70   @ UC Irvine L 56-68 14%    
  Jan 29, 2022 187   @ UC San Diego L 64-68 37%    
  Feb 03, 2022 288   @ Long Beach St. W 73-71 58%    
  Feb 05, 2022 192   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 63-67 38%    
  Feb 10, 2022 95   UC Santa Barbara L 63-67 35%    
  Feb 12, 2022 297   Cal St. Northridge W 69-60 77%    
  Feb 17, 2022 132   @ UC Riverside L 57-64 26%    
  Feb 19, 2022 214   @ UC Davis L 67-70 41%    
  Feb 22, 2022 315   @ Cal Poly W 64-60 63%    
  Feb 27, 2022 186   @ Hawaii L 65-69 37%    
  Mar 03, 2022 187   UC San Diego W 67-65 58%    
  Mar 05, 2022 70   UC Irvine L 59-65 30%    
Projected Record 13 - 14 10 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 3.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.2 2.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 6.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.3 3.4 2.6 0.6 0.1 9.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.8 4.8 2.2 0.6 0.1 12.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 4.7 4.7 2.0 0.3 0.0 13.1 5th
6th 0.2 1.5 4.6 4.6 1.8 0.2 0.0 12.9 6th
7th 0.2 1.9 5.0 4.3 1.4 0.2 13.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.4 4.3 3.4 0.9 0.1 11.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.6 3.3 2.2 0.6 0.0 8.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.2 1.5 0.2 5.7 10th
11th 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.2 11th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.6 4.7 7.4 8.8 10.7 11.2 11.8 11.1 9.5 7.1 5.9 3.4 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
18-2 90.5% 0.4    0.3 0.1
17-3 84.2% 0.8    0.6 0.2 0.0
16-4 47.0% 0.9    0.5 0.4 0.0
15-5 23.3% 0.8    0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0
14-6 8.0% 0.5    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.6% 3.6 2.0 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
18-2 0.4% 31.0% 31.0% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3
17-3 1.0% 32.6% 32.6% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.6
16-4 2.0% 19.5% 19.5% 13.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.6
15-5 3.4% 12.8% 12.8% 13.5 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 3.0
14-6 5.9% 14.2% 14.2% 14.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 5.0
13-7 7.1% 8.8% 8.8% 14.5 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 6.5
12-8 9.5% 6.3% 6.3% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 8.9
11-9 11.1% 4.5% 4.5% 15.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 10.6
10-10 11.8% 3.8% 3.8% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 11.3
9-11 11.2% 2.4% 2.4% 15.8 0.1 0.2 10.9
8-12 10.7% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 10.6
7-13 8.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 8.7
6-14 7.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 7.4
5-15 4.7% 4.7
4-16 2.6% 2.6
3-17 1.5% 1.5
2-18 0.7% 0.7
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.1 1.5 1.0 95.3 0.0%