Ohio
Mid-American
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.9#73
Expected Predictive Rating+13.7#34
Pace71.1#126
Improvement-2.3#334

Offense
Total Offense+5.3#46
First Shot+5.6#34
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#191
Layup/Dunks+0.5#149
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#152
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.2#29
Freethrows-1.6#273
Improvement-1.5#311

Defense
Total Defense+1.6#110
First Shot-0.1#184
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#82
Layups/Dunks-1.1#234
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#254
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#96
Freethrows-0.1#192
Improvement-0.8#271
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.5% 2.1% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 1.7% 6.3% 1.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 32.2% 45.0% 30.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 5.8% 15.9% 4.5%
Average Seed 11.5 10.2 11.8
.500 or above 99.3% 99.9% 99.2%
.500 or above in Conference 97.9% 99.0% 97.7%
Conference Champion 38.9% 49.6% 37.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.6% 5.3% 2.2%
First Round31.0% 42.7% 29.4%
Second Round9.2% 17.9% 8.0%
Sweet Sixteen3.0% 6.1% 2.5%
Elite Eight0.7% 1.6% 0.5%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: LSU (Away) - 12.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 22 - 4
Quad 37 - 39 - 7
Quad 415 - 124 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 63   Belmont W 92-80 59%     1 - 0 +16.6 +14.1 +1.8
  Nov 13, 2021 163   @ Cleveland St. W 67-56 65%     2 - 0 +14.0 -0.4 +14.9
  Nov 15, 2021 287   Robert Morris W 85-71 93%     3 - 0 +4.0 +1.7 +1.6
  Nov 19, 2021 12   @ Kentucky L 59-77 14%     3 - 1 +0.6 -0.5 -0.4
  Nov 22, 2021 290   Mount St. Mary's W 73-59 94%     4 - 1 +3.8 +4.7 +0.4
  Dec 01, 2021 10   @ LSU L 70-82 12%    
  Dec 04, 2021 292   St. Francis (PA) W 84-67 95%    
  Dec 11, 2021 267   @ Stetson W 77-67 82%    
  Dec 15, 2021 116   Marshall W 86-79 72%    
  Dec 21, 2021 337   South Carolina Upstate W 86-64 98%    
  Dec 28, 2021 241   Eastern Michigan W 83-69 90%    
  Jan 01, 2022 294   @ Western Michigan W 79-68 85%    
  Jan 04, 2022 166   @ Akron W 72-68 64%    
  Jan 08, 2022 143   Kent St. W 76-68 77%    
  Jan 11, 2022 220   Bowling Green W 84-71 88%    
  Jan 15, 2022 299   @ Central Michigan W 85-73 85%    
  Jan 18, 2022 141   @ Miami (OH) W 75-73 56%    
  Jan 22, 2022 118   Toledo W 81-74 72%    
  Jan 25, 2022 312   Northern Illinois W 78-60 94%    
  Jan 29, 2022 71   @ Buffalo L 80-83 40%    
  Feb 01, 2022 212   Ball St. W 84-72 86%    
  Feb 05, 2022 294   Western Michigan W 82-65 94%    
  Feb 08, 2022 118   @ Toledo W 78-77 52%    
  Feb 12, 2022 241   @ Eastern Michigan W 80-72 76%    
  Feb 15, 2022 141   Miami (OH) W 78-70 75%    
  Feb 19, 2022 143   @ Kent St. W 73-71 56%    
  Feb 22, 2022 299   Central Michigan W 88-70 94%    
  Feb 26, 2022 166   Akron W 75-65 81%    
  Mar 01, 2022 220   @ Bowling Green W 81-74 71%    
  Mar 04, 2022 312   @ Northern Illinois W 75-63 86%    
Projected Record 23 - 7 15 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mid-American Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 2.8 7.3 10.3 10.0 6.1 1.8 38.9 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 4.2 8.0 7.9 4.0 1.0 0.1 26.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 3.4 5.5 4.1 1.1 0.1 15.0 3rd
4th 0.1 0.7 2.6 3.2 2.0 0.3 8.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 1.8 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 5.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.4 0.6 0.1 3.3 6th
7th 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.2 4.2 6.1 8.4 12.4 15.1 16.2 14.3 11.0 6.2 1.8 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.8    1.8
19-1 99.2% 6.1    5.8 0.4
18-2 91.1% 10.0    8.5 1.5 0.0
17-3 71.6% 10.3    6.9 3.0 0.3
16-4 44.7% 7.3    3.4 3.2 0.6 0.1
15-5 18.3% 2.8    0.8 1.2 0.6 0.1
14-6 5.1% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 38.9% 38.9 27.3 9.5 1.8 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.8% 88.4% 58.6% 29.8% 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 72.0%
19-1 6.2% 75.5% 55.8% 19.8% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.7 1.3 0.8 0.1 1.5 44.7%
18-2 11.0% 57.0% 44.7% 12.3% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 2.0 2.3 0.5 4.7 22.2%
17-3 14.3% 42.7% 37.7% 5.0% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 3.2 1.1 0.1 0.0 8.2 8.1%
16-4 16.2% 31.5% 29.9% 1.6% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.6 1.7 0.3 11.1 2.3%
15-5 15.1% 24.9% 24.7% 0.2% 12.8 0.1 1.4 1.6 0.6 0.0 11.3 0.3%
14-6 12.4% 18.4% 18.2% 0.2% 13.1 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.6 0.1 10.1 0.3%
13-7 8.4% 13.9% 13.9% 13.4 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 7.3
12-8 6.1% 13.1% 13.1% 13.7 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 5.3
11-9 4.2% 7.7% 7.7% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.8
10-10 2.2% 5.5% 5.5% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.1
9-11 1.2% 1.6% 1.6% 15.0 0.0 1.2
8-12 0.5% 1.9% 1.9% 15.0 0.0 0.5
7-13 0.2% 0.2
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 32.2% 28.1% 4.2% 11.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.5 1.3 1.9 5.3 11.1 7.0 2.5 0.5 0.0 67.8 5.8%