Mercer
Southern
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.7#197
Expected Predictive Rating-6.4#267
Pace67.2#237
Improvement-1.6#298

Offense
Total Offense-0.2#179
First Shot+0.0#177
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#196
Layup/Dunks-2.8#278
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#79
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#69
Freethrows-2.7#322
Improvement-1.1#294

Defense
Total Defense-1.5#227
First Shot-3.9#292
After Offensive Rebounds+2.4#47
Layups/Dunks-6.0#333
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#120
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#177
Freethrows+0.7#152
Improvement-0.4#241
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.6% 5.7% 2.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.6 15.1
.500 or above 32.1% 40.7% 17.7%
.500 or above in Conference 49.1% 54.4% 40.3%
Conference Champion 4.4% 5.4% 2.8%
Last Place in Conference 7.8% 6.5% 10.0%
First Four0.7% 0.5% 1.1%
First Round4.4% 5.5% 2.4%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Kennesaw St. (Away) - 62.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 34 - 85 - 13
Quad 49 - 413 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 25   @ Arkansas L 61-74 6%     0 - 1 +3.4 -3.0 +6.2
  Nov 13, 2021 161   @ Winthrop L 85-88 OT 31%     0 - 2 +0.5 +2.0 -1.2
  Nov 20, 2021 60   @ Saint Louis L 58-75 13%     0 - 3 -6.3 -6.1 -1.3
  Nov 23, 2021 298   Bucknell W 78-68 72%     1 - 3 +2.3 -2.4 +4.4
  Nov 24, 2021 185   Middle Tennessee L 58-82 48%     1 - 4 -25.1 -15.2 -9.1
  Dec 01, 2021 310   @ Kennesaw St. W 71-68 62%    
  Dec 04, 2021 145   Georgia St. L 74-75 48%    
  Dec 06, 2021 223   @ Coastal Carolina L 71-73 44%    
  Dec 11, 2021 178   Georgia Southern W 68-66 57%    
  Dec 19, 2021 189   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 73-76 37%    
  Dec 22, 2021 227   Troy W 70-65 66%    
  Dec 29, 2021 240   @ The Citadel L 74-75 47%    
  Jan 01, 2022 110   Chattanooga L 63-66 40%    
  Jan 05, 2022 239   Samford W 79-74 68%    
  Jan 08, 2022 103   @ Furman L 68-77 20%    
  Jan 13, 2022 255   VMI W 73-66 72%    
  Jan 15, 2022 171   UNC Greensboro W 64-62 56%    
  Jan 19, 2022 124   @ East Tennessee St. L 64-71 26%    
  Jan 22, 2022 303   Western Carolina W 78-69 80%    
  Jan 26, 2022 239   @ Samford L 76-77 47%    
  Jan 29, 2022 103   Furman L 71-74 39%    
  Jan 31, 2022 122   Wofford L 68-70 45%    
  Feb 05, 2022 110   @ Chattanooga L 60-69 22%    
  Feb 10, 2022 255   @ VMI W 70-69 52%    
  Feb 13, 2022 171   @ UNC Greensboro L 61-65 35%    
  Feb 16, 2022 124   East Tennessee St. L 67-68 45%    
  Feb 19, 2022 303   @ Western Carolina W 75-72 60%    
  Feb 23, 2022 240   The Citadel W 77-72 68%    
  Feb 26, 2022 122   @ Wofford L 65-73 26%    
Projected Record 13 - 16 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.4 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.4 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 2.5 2.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 7.0 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.5 3.7 3.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 9.4 3rd
4th 0.2 2.5 5.1 3.8 0.7 0.0 12.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.8 6.4 4.0 0.8 0.0 14.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.5 6.5 4.0 0.7 0.0 15.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.5 5.8 3.6 0.4 13.8 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 3.1 4.7 2.1 0.4 11.3 8th
9th 0.2 0.9 2.4 2.8 1.3 0.2 7.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.5 1.1 0.5 0.0 4.3 10th
Total 0.1 0.2 1.1 2.5 4.4 7.0 10.1 12.2 13.5 13.4 11.4 9.3 6.7 4.3 2.4 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 97.9% 0.5    0.4 0.0
15-3 84.6% 0.9    0.6 0.3 0.0
14-4 59.3% 1.4    0.8 0.5 0.1
13-5 26.4% 1.1    0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-6 5.7% 0.4    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1
11-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.4% 4.4 2.3 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.1% 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.5% 20.8% 20.8% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4
15-3 1.0% 22.1% 22.1% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.8
14-4 2.4% 21.2% 21.2% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 1.9
13-5 4.3% 15.7% 15.7% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 3.6
12-6 6.7% 10.8% 10.8% 14.7 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 6.0
11-7 9.3% 7.3% 7.3% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 8.6
10-8 11.4% 5.5% 5.5% 15.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 10.8
9-9 13.4% 3.8% 3.8% 15.6 0.2 0.3 12.9
8-10 13.5% 2.4% 2.4% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 13.2
7-11 12.2% 1.1% 1.1% 15.8 0.0 0.1 12.0
6-12 10.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 10.0
5-13 7.0% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 7.0
4-14 4.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.4
3-15 2.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.5
2-16 1.1% 1.1
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.7 1.1 95.4 0.0%