Arkansas
Southeastern
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.4#25
Expected Predictive Rating+16.8#11
Pace78.6#23
Improvement+0.5#126

Offense
Total Offense+7.4#20
First Shot+0.9#149
After Offensive Rebound+6.5#2
Layup/Dunks+1.4#121
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#203
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#275
Freethrows+3.6#20
Improvement-0.5#244

Defense
Total Defense+6.0#40
First Shot+2.7#92
After Offensive Rebounds+3.4#19
Layups/Dunks+4.2#46
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#40
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.2#348
Freethrows+3.2#19
Improvement+0.9#80
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.8% 0.9% 0.0%
#1 Seed 4.3% 4.5% 0.9%
Top 2 Seed 10.7% 11.0% 2.5%
Top 4 Seed 28.4% 29.1% 14.3%
Top 6 Seed 47.8% 48.6% 29.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 82.8% 83.5% 67.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 80.9% 81.7% 65.6%
Average Seed 6.0 5.9 7.0
.500 or above 98.9% 99.1% 94.2%
.500 or above in Conference 81.1% 81.7% 68.4%
Conference Champion 13.1% 13.3% 7.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.7% 2.7%
First Four4.0% 3.9% 6.1%
First Round81.0% 81.8% 64.1%
Second Round55.7% 56.5% 38.3%
Sweet Sixteen27.1% 27.6% 15.7%
Elite Eight12.4% 12.7% 5.2%
Final Four5.2% 5.4% 1.8%
Championship Game2.2% 2.3% 0.4%
National Champion0.9% 1.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Penn (Home) - 95.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 7
Quad 26 - 211 - 8
Quad 36 - 117 - 9
Quad 47 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 197   Mercer W 74-61 94%     1 - 0 +8.3 -0.3 +8.9
  Nov 13, 2021 204   Gardner-Webb W 86-69 95%     2 - 0 +12.0 +10.2 +1.8
  Nov 17, 2021 114   Northern Iowa W 93-80 88%     3 - 0 +13.6 +12.1 +0.6
  Nov 22, 2021 101   Kansas St. W 72-64 79%     4 - 0 +12.8 +0.7 +11.8
  Nov 23, 2021 57   Cincinnati W 73-67 69%     5 - 0 +14.3 +3.2 +10.8
  Nov 28, 2021 196   Penn W 86-68 96%    
  Dec 01, 2021 342   Central Arkansas W 94-65 99.7%   
  Dec 04, 2021 283   Arkansas Little Rock W 88-65 98%    
  Dec 07, 2021 198   Charlotte W 80-62 96%    
  Dec 11, 2021 35   Oklahoma W 75-73 57%    
  Dec 18, 2021 137   Hofstra W 86-72 90%    
  Dec 21, 2021 265   Elon W 89-67 98%    
  Dec 29, 2021 37   @ Mississippi St. L 72-73 48%    
  Jan 04, 2022 80   Vanderbilt W 80-70 82%    
  Jan 08, 2022 81   @ Texas A&M W 72-68 64%    
  Jan 12, 2022 127   Missouri W 81-67 89%    
  Jan 15, 2022 10   @ LSU L 76-82 31%    
  Jan 18, 2022 92   South Carolina W 86-75 83%    
  Jan 22, 2022 81   Texas A&M W 75-65 81%    
  Jan 26, 2022 74   @ Mississippi W 72-68 63%    
  Jan 29, 2022 46   West Virginia W 79-72 72%    
  Feb 02, 2022 154   @ Georgia W 83-73 80%    
  Feb 05, 2022 37   Mississippi St. W 75-69 69%    
  Feb 08, 2022 20   Auburn W 81-79 58%    
  Feb 12, 2022 18   @ Alabama L 81-85 36%    
  Feb 15, 2022 127   @ Missouri W 78-70 75%    
  Feb 19, 2022 23   Tennessee W 77-74 59%    
  Feb 22, 2022 15   @ Florida L 73-77 36%    
  Feb 26, 2022 12   Kentucky W 78-77 53%    
  Mar 02, 2022 10   LSU W 79-78 51%    
  Mar 05, 2022 23   @ Tennessee L 74-77 39%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.4 3.7 3.7 2.7 1.1 0.2 13.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.7 5.1 4.7 1.3 0.2 13.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.5 5.0 4.7 1.1 0.0 12.3 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 4.7 4.9 0.9 0.0 11.5 4th
5th 0.4 3.6 5.2 1.4 0.1 10.7 5th
6th 0.2 2.2 5.1 2.2 0.1 9.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 4.1 2.6 0.3 8.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 3.0 2.8 0.5 0.0 6.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.6 0.7 5.4 9th
10th 0.1 1.3 1.8 0.6 0.0 3.8 10th
11th 0.1 0.5 1.2 0.6 0.1 2.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.1 1.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.9 13th
14th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 14th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 3.2 5.0 7.8 10.2 12.6 14.0 13.3 12.3 9.5 5.1 2.9 1.1 0.2 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 1.1    1.0 0.0
16-2 93.2% 2.7    2.3 0.5
15-3 74.1% 3.7    2.2 1.4 0.2 0.0
14-4 39.1% 3.7    1.3 1.6 0.7 0.1
13-5 11.6% 1.4    0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2
12-6 1.7% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 13.1% 13.1 7.1 4.1 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 0.1 0.0
17-1 1.1% 100.0% 35.2% 64.8% 1.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 2.9% 100.0% 31.3% 68.7% 1.7 1.4 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 5.1% 100.0% 22.4% 77.6% 2.4 1.2 1.8 1.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 9.5% 100.0% 20.1% 79.9% 3.3 0.8 2.1 2.7 2.4 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 12.3% 99.9% 15.9% 84.0% 4.4 0.2 0.8 2.4 3.4 2.9 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-6 13.3% 99.5% 11.8% 87.8% 5.6 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.1 3.1 3.0 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.5%
11-7 14.0% 98.0% 6.6% 91.4% 6.8 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.7 2.9 3.2 2.5 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.3 97.9%
10-8 12.6% 91.6% 4.9% 86.7% 8.1 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.0 2.6 2.2 1.5 0.9 0.2 1.1 91.2%
9-9 10.2% 78.4% 2.4% 76.0% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.5 0.3 0.0 2.2 77.9%
8-10 7.8% 51.5% 1.0% 50.5% 10.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.3 0.8 0.0 3.8 51.0%
7-11 5.0% 22.6% 2.0% 20.6% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.0 3.9 21.0%
6-12 3.2% 5.9% 0.6% 5.3% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.0 5.3%
5-13 1.7% 1.7
4-14 0.8% 0.8
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 82.8% 9.9% 72.9% 6.0 4.3 6.3 8.1 9.7 9.6 9.7 8.9 8.2 6.5 5.2 4.4 1.8 0.1 17.2 80.9%