Chattanooga
Southern
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.2#110
Expected Predictive Rating+9.6#65
Pace56.6#356
Improvement-2.1#325

Offense
Total Offense+3.3#87
First Shot+0.7#160
After Offensive Rebound+2.6#50
Layup/Dunks-0.7#192
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#138
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#163
Freethrows+0.6#143
Improvement-2.1#335

Defense
Total Defense+0.9#144
First Shot+3.1#84
After Offensive Rebounds-2.2#302
Layups/Dunks+0.7#159
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#332
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#94
Freethrows+3.2#21
Improvement+0.0#193
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.9% 27.1% 18.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.2% 2.8% 0.7%
Average Seed 12.3 12.1 12.9
.500 or above 93.5% 96.1% 86.5%
.500 or above in Conference 90.2% 91.8% 85.7%
Conference Champion 30.7% 33.2% 23.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.4% 0.9%
First Four1.1% 1.3% 0.5%
First Round24.3% 26.3% 18.7%
Second Round5.2% 6.0% 3.0%
Sweet Sixteen1.3% 1.5% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee Tech (Away) - 73.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 1
Quad 22 - 23 - 3
Quad 36 - 410 - 8
Quad 411 - 321 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 108   @ Loyola Marymount W 75-64 38%     1 - 0 +18.3 +13.1 +6.4
  Nov 14, 2021 268   UNC Asheville W 75-45 89%     2 - 0 +21.0 +7.0 +17.6
  Nov 16, 2021 262   Tennessee Tech W 69-62 88%     3 - 0 -1.4 +2.6 -2.9
  Nov 20, 2021 79   @ Virginia Commonwealth W 56-54 30%     4 - 0 +11.6 +5.7 +6.3
  Nov 27, 2021 206   College of Charleston L 66-68 81%     4 - 1 -7.1 -7.9 +0.8
  Nov 30, 2021 262   @ Tennessee Tech W 70-63 73%    
  Dec 05, 2021 221   @ Lipscomb W 69-65 64%    
  Dec 08, 2021 268   @ UNC Asheville W 68-61 75%    
  Dec 15, 2021 63   @ Belmont L 65-71 28%    
  Dec 18, 2021 86   @ Murray St. L 59-64 33%    
  Dec 22, 2021 185   Middle Tennessee W 67-59 78%    
  Dec 30, 2021 124   East Tennessee St. W 64-60 65%    
  Jan 01, 2022 197   @ Mercer W 66-63 60%    
  Jan 05, 2022 122   @ Wofford L 63-65 44%    
  Jan 08, 2022 240   The Citadel W 74-63 83%    
  Jan 12, 2022 303   @ Western Carolina W 72-63 79%    
  Jan 15, 2022 103   Furman W 68-65 59%    
  Jan 20, 2022 171   @ UNC Greensboro W 60-58 55%    
  Jan 22, 2022 255   @ VMI W 67-61 71%    
  Jan 26, 2022 122   Wofford W 66-62 65%    
  Jan 29, 2022 240   @ The Citadel W 71-66 68%    
  Feb 02, 2022 239   @ Samford W 73-68 67%    
  Feb 05, 2022 197   Mercer W 69-60 78%    
  Feb 09, 2022 303   Western Carolina W 75-60 91%    
  Feb 12, 2022 103   @ Furman L 65-68 39%    
  Feb 17, 2022 171   UNC Greensboro W 63-55 75%    
  Feb 19, 2022 255   VMI W 70-58 86%    
  Feb 23, 2022 124   @ East Tennessee St. L 61-63 45%    
  Feb 26, 2022 239   Samford W 76-65 83%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.0 4.5 6.9 8.1 6.2 3.0 0.9 30.7 1st
2nd 0.1 1.6 5.5 7.5 5.4 1.4 0.2 21.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.7 5.4 6.2 2.5 0.4 0.0 16.2 3rd
4th 0.2 1.3 4.5 4.8 1.4 0.1 0.0 12.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 3.1 3.1 0.7 0.0 8.0 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 2.3 1.9 0.4 0.0 5.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 1.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.8 4.6 6.5 9.9 12.6 14.1 14.6 12.7 9.5 6.4 3.0 0.9 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
17-1 100.0% 3.0    3.0 0.1
16-2 96.6% 6.2    5.6 0.6
15-3 85.0% 8.1    6.1 1.8 0.1
14-4 54.4% 6.9    3.8 2.6 0.6 0.0
13-5 30.7% 4.5    1.7 2.0 0.7 0.1
12-6 6.7% 1.0    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1
11-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 30.7% 30.7 21.2 7.4 1.7 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.9% 86.8% 62.6% 24.2% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 64.7%
17-1 3.0% 66.1% 52.5% 13.6% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.1 1.0 28.7%
16-2 6.4% 54.4% 46.0% 8.4% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.3 0.5 0.0 2.9 15.6%
15-3 9.5% 42.6% 39.3% 3.3% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.9 0.9 0.2 5.5 5.4%
14-4 12.7% 32.5% 31.1% 1.4% 12.5 0.0 0.3 2.0 1.4 0.4 0.1 8.6 2.1%
13-5 14.6% 25.8% 25.7% 0.1% 12.8 0.0 1.4 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 10.8 0.2%
12-6 14.1% 18.9% 18.9% 13.3 0.5 1.2 0.8 0.2 11.4
11-7 12.6% 15.2% 15.2% 13.6 0.1 0.9 0.8 0.2 10.7
10-8 9.9% 11.2% 11.2% 13.9 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 8.8
9-9 6.5% 8.4% 8.4% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 6.0
8-10 4.6% 5.7% 5.7% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 4.3
7-11 2.8% 4.3% 4.3% 15.4 0.1 0.1 2.7
6-12 1.5% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 1.5
5-13 0.6% 0.6
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 24.9% 23.2% 1.7% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.7 7.7 6.9 3.6 1.1 0.2 75.1 2.2%