Furman
Southern
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.3#105
Expected Predictive Rating+6.6#90
Pace68.8#201
Improvement-2.9#341

Offense
Total Offense+4.3#66
First Shot+3.5#80
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#124
Layup/Dunks+1.8#113
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#273
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.7#38
Freethrows-2.2#301
Improvement-1.1#293

Defense
Total Defense-0.1#171
First Shot-2.0#245
After Offensive Rebounds+1.9#66
Layups/Dunks-1.2#231
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#332
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#154
Freethrows+1.6#90
Improvement-1.8#316
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.4% 24.7% 18.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.6% 1.9% 0.5%
Average Seed 12.3 12.2 12.8
.500 or above 92.0% 94.7% 81.6%
.500 or above in Conference 90.5% 92.0% 84.9%
Conference Champion 30.4% 32.5% 21.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.3% 0.7%
First Four1.0% 1.1% 0.3%
First Round23.0% 24.2% 18.3%
Second Round4.8% 5.3% 2.9%
Sweet Sixteen1.1% 1.1% 0.9%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: College of Charleston (Home) - 79.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 11 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 2
Quad 21 - 33 - 5
Quad 36 - 49 - 10
Quad 412 - 221 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 36   @ Louisville W 80-72 OT 17%     1 - 0 +22.5 +7.8 +13.8
  Nov 15, 2021 68   @ Belmont L 89-95 OT 28%     1 - 1 +4.3 +6.6 -1.4
  Nov 19, 2021 248   Radford W 81-64 86%     2 - 1 +9.4 +7.5 +2.1
  Nov 21, 2021 101   Navy L 66-77 61%     2 - 2 -9.5 -2.4 -7.3
  Nov 27, 2021 334   @ South Carolina Upstate W 87-77 88%     3 - 2 +1.2 +12.6 -10.9
  Nov 30, 2021 282   @ High Point W 74-70 2OT 77%     4 - 2 +0.6 -6.4 +6.6
  Dec 03, 2021 198   College of Charleston W 87-78 80%    
  Dec 07, 2021 146   @ Winthrop L 79-80 50%    
  Dec 10, 2021 172   Appalachian St. W 72-64 75%    
  Dec 14, 2021 43   @ North Carolina L 75-84 19%    
  Dec 17, 2021 38   @ Mississippi St. L 65-74 19%    
  Dec 21, 2021 293   Presbyterian W 74-59 92%    
  Dec 29, 2021 239   Samford W 85-74 84%    
  Jan 01, 2022 261   @ VMI W 76-69 73%    
  Jan 05, 2022 167   @ UNC Greensboro W 66-65 54%    
  Jan 08, 2022 196   Mercer W 77-68 79%    
  Jan 12, 2022 123   East Tennessee St. W 72-68 65%    
  Jan 15, 2022 100   @ Chattanooga L 66-69 39%    
  Jan 19, 2022 302   Western Carolina W 84-69 91%    
  Jan 22, 2022 119   @ Wofford L 70-72 44%    
  Jan 26, 2022 261   VMI W 79-66 87%    
  Jan 29, 2022 196   @ Mercer W 74-71 60%    
  Feb 02, 2022 238   The Citadel W 83-72 83%    
  Feb 05, 2022 167   UNC Greensboro W 69-62 74%    
  Feb 07, 2022 123   @ East Tennessee St. L 69-71 45%    
  Feb 12, 2022 100   Chattanooga W 69-66 59%    
  Feb 16, 2022 302   @ Western Carolina W 81-72 78%    
  Feb 19, 2022 119   Wofford W 73-69 65%    
  Feb 23, 2022 239   @ Samford W 82-77 67%    
  Feb 26, 2022 238   @ The Citadel W 80-75 67%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 4.1 7.1 7.9 6.6 2.9 0.7 30.4 1st
2nd 0.1 2.0 5.8 7.7 5.0 1.6 0.2 22.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 5.8 6.2 2.1 0.4 0.1 16.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 4.4 4.4 1.3 0.1 11.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 3.0 3.4 0.8 0.0 8.2 5th
6th 0.2 0.7 2.1 2.3 0.3 0.0 5.7 6th
7th 0.1 0.4 1.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.1 1.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.7 9th
10th 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 0.1 0.1 0.7 1.6 2.7 4.3 6.8 10.0 13.1 14.1 14.0 12.5 9.6 6.8 2.9 0.7 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
17-1 100.0% 2.9    2.9
16-2 97.0% 6.6    6.0 0.6
15-3 83.0% 7.9    6.0 1.8 0.1
14-4 56.7% 7.1    3.7 2.8 0.6 0.0
13-5 29.4% 4.1    1.3 2.0 0.7 0.1
12-6 6.1% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1
11-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.1
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 30.4% 30.4 20.8 7.4 1.8 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.7% 70.4% 55.0% 15.5% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 34.4%
17-1 2.9% 63.2% 52.5% 10.7% 10.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.1 1.1 22.5%
16-2 6.8% 50.2% 41.5% 8.7% 11.4 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.3 0.4 0.0 3.4 14.8%
15-3 9.6% 40.9% 38.9% 2.0% 12.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.7 1.0 0.1 5.7 3.3%
14-4 12.5% 31.7% 31.3% 0.4% 12.3 0.0 0.4 1.9 1.5 0.1 8.5 0.6%
13-5 14.0% 24.4% 24.4% 12.8 0.1 1.1 1.6 0.5 0.1 10.6
12-6 14.1% 17.7% 17.7% 13.1 0.6 1.2 0.7 0.0 11.6
11-7 13.1% 12.9% 12.9% 13.4 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.1 11.4
10-8 10.0% 10.3% 10.3% 13.7 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 9.0
9-9 6.8% 9.5% 9.5% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 6.2
8-10 4.3% 7.5% 7.5% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 4.0
7-11 2.7% 3.3% 3.3% 15.3 0.1 0.0 2.6
6-12 1.6% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1 1.5
5-13 0.7% 0.7
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 23.4% 22.2% 1.3% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 3.3 7.5 6.9 2.9 1.0 0.1 76.6 1.6%