UNC Greensboro
Southern
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.4#171
Expected Predictive Rating+2.3#143
Pace59.1#353
Improvement+1.0#91

Offense
Total Offense-1.7#220
First Shot-1.3#218
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#203
Layup/Dunks-2.4#262
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#74
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#197
Freethrows+0.1#177
Improvement+2.7#10

Defense
Total Defense+1.3#126
First Shot-0.8#201
After Offensive Rebounds+2.0#63
Layups/Dunks+4.2#45
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#344
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#254
Freethrows+0.6#155
Improvement-1.8#314
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.0% 7.5% 4.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 14.1 14.6
.500 or above 69.0% 74.3% 49.2%
.500 or above in Conference 61.0% 63.8% 50.6%
Conference Champion 6.8% 7.3% 4.8%
Last Place in Conference 4.4% 3.8% 6.7%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round6.9% 7.5% 4.8%
Second Round0.6% 0.6% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Elon (Home) - 78.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 35 - 66 - 11
Quad 411 - 317 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 278   N.C. A&T W 57-53 80%     1 - 0 -5.4 -14.9 +9.8
  Nov 12, 2021 195   @ Northern Kentucky W 70-69 OT 43%     2 - 0 +2.4 -5.2 +7.5
  Nov 15, 2021 309   Coppin St. W 55-48 84%     3 - 0 -4.1 -21.1 +17.0
  Nov 18, 2021 300   Green Bay W 60-58 76%     4 - 0 -5.8 -2.2 -3.1
  Nov 19, 2021 119   Massachusetts L 90-93 OT 36%     4 - 1 +0.2 +8.6 -8.2
  Nov 21, 2021 228   Florida International L 71-74 OT 61%     4 - 2 -6.3 -0.9 -5.4
  Nov 27, 2021 107   Vermont W 54-51 43%     5 - 2 +4.3 -3.0 +7.9
  Nov 30, 2021 265   Elon W 69-61 79%    
  Dec 11, 2021 23   @ Tennessee L 55-72 5%    
  Dec 14, 2021 164   @ Towson L 61-64 37%    
  Dec 16, 2021 210   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. L 65-66 45%    
  Dec 29, 2021 303   @ Western Carolina W 70-65 66%    
  Jan 01, 2022 122   Wofford L 62-63 49%    
  Jan 05, 2022 103   Furman L 65-67 43%    
  Jan 08, 2022 255   @ VMI W 64-62 56%    
  Jan 13, 2022 240   @ The Citadel W 69-68 52%    
  Jan 15, 2022 197   @ Mercer L 62-64 44%    
  Jan 20, 2022 110   Chattanooga L 58-60 45%    
  Jan 22, 2022 239   Samford W 73-66 72%    
  Jan 26, 2022 124   @ East Tennessee St. L 58-64 30%    
  Jan 29, 2022 122   @ Wofford L 60-66 29%    
  Feb 02, 2022 255   VMI W 67-59 76%    
  Feb 05, 2022 103   @ Furman L 62-70 24%    
  Feb 10, 2022 240   The Citadel W 72-65 73%    
  Feb 13, 2022 197   Mercer W 65-61 65%    
  Feb 17, 2022 110   @ Chattanooga L 55-63 25%    
  Feb 19, 2022 239   @ Samford W 70-69 52%    
  Feb 23, 2022 303   Western Carolina W 73-62 82%    
  Feb 27, 2022 124   East Tennessee St. L 61-62 48%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 9 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 1.5 2.0 1.6 0.8 0.2 0.1 6.8 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 3.4 3.0 1.4 0.4 0.1 9.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.7 4.5 4.5 1.3 0.1 12.3 3rd
4th 0.2 2.5 6.2 5.2 1.0 0.0 15.1 4th
5th 0.4 2.8 6.6 4.7 1.0 0.0 15.5 5th
6th 0.4 3.0 6.4 3.9 0.8 0.0 14.4 6th
7th 0.3 3.1 4.7 2.9 0.3 0.0 11.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.4 2.1 3.4 1.6 0.3 0.0 7.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.9 0.9 0.2 4.7 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.2 10th
Total 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.5 4.7 7.8 9.9 12.6 13.5 13.6 12.0 9.4 5.8 3.5 2.0 0.9 0.2 0.1 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
16-2 94.3% 0.8    0.8 0.1
15-3 80.5% 1.6    1.1 0.4 0.1
14-4 57.1% 2.0    1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0
13-5 25.7% 1.5    0.5 0.7 0.3 0.1
12-6 5.9% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1
11-7 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.8% 6.8 3.6 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.2% 29.2% 29.2% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
16-2 0.9% 34.1% 34.1% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.6
15-3 2.0% 26.7% 26.7% 13.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 1.4
14-4 3.5% 20.5% 20.5% 13.3 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 2.8
13-5 5.8% 15.6% 15.6% 13.7 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 4.9
12-6 9.4% 11.8% 11.8% 14.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 8.3
11-7 12.0% 8.9% 8.9% 14.4 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.1 11.0
10-8 13.6% 6.5% 6.5% 14.7 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 12.7
9-9 13.5% 5.0% 5.0% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 12.9
8-10 12.6% 3.1% 3.1% 15.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 12.2
7-11 9.9% 1.9% 1.9% 15.7 0.1 0.1 9.7
6-12 7.8% 0.8% 0.8% 15.7 0.0 0.0 7.8
5-13 4.7% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 4.7
4-14 2.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.5
3-15 1.0% 1.0
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18
Total 100% 7.0% 7.0% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.1 2.2 0.7 93.0 0.0%