Morehead St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.2#138
Expected Predictive Rating+5.0#110
Pace63.7#309
Improvement+2.5#27

Offense
Total Offense+0.9#143
First Shot+4.1#65
After Offensive Rebound-3.2#335
Layup/Dunks-0.7#193
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#49
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#85
Freethrows-1.1#251
Improvement+1.0#81

Defense
Total Defense+1.3#124
First Shot-1.1#210
After Offensive Rebounds+2.4#50
Layups/Dunks-0.5#210
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.0#354
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#239
Freethrows+5.7#1
Improvement+1.6#47
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.2% 16.6% 11.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.5 14.1
.500 or above 92.8% 95.9% 84.7%
.500 or above in Conference 96.3% 97.2% 93.9%
Conference Champion 15.4% 16.9% 11.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round15.2% 16.6% 11.5%
Second Round1.8% 2.2% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgia Southern (Home) - 71.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 21 - 31 - 7
Quad 33 - 24 - 8
Quad 415 - 319 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 20   @ Auburn L 54-77 9%     0 - 1 -5.9 -10.5 +4.2
  Nov 12, 2021 52   @ UAB L 71-85 18%     0 - 2 -2.2 +4.0 -6.1
  Nov 21, 2021 37   @ Mississippi St. L 46-66 14%     0 - 3 -6.1 -12.8 +3.8
  Nov 26, 2021 245   @ Arkansas St. W 75-51 63%     1 - 3 +22.7 +4.7 +19.1
  Nov 27, 2021 191   UMKC W 70-62 63%     2 - 3 +6.7 +6.3 +1.6
  Dec 01, 2021 178   Georgia Southern W 67-61 72%    
  Dec 06, 2021 281   Presbyterian W 68-56 87%    
  Dec 11, 2021 124   @ East Tennessee St. L 63-67 36%    
  Dec 15, 2021 40   @ Xavier L 61-72 15%    
  Dec 21, 2021 339   @ IUPUI W 67-56 86%    
  Dec 29, 2021 341   Eastern Illinois W 75-57 95%    
  Jan 01, 2022 313   Tennessee St. W 77-63 89%    
  Jan 06, 2022 262   @ Tennessee Tech W 72-67 65%    
  Jan 08, 2022 259   @ Austin Peay W 69-64 66%    
  Jan 12, 2022 345   Tennessee Martin W 78-60 95%    
  Jan 15, 2022 313   @ Tennessee St. W 74-66 75%    
  Jan 20, 2022 63   Belmont L 71-73 40%    
  Jan 22, 2022 328   SIU Edwardsville W 75-59 92%    
  Jan 27, 2022 307   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 75-68 74%    
  Jan 29, 2022 86   @ Murray St. L 61-68 26%    
  Feb 03, 2022 262   Tennessee Tech W 75-64 82%    
  Feb 05, 2022 259   Austin Peay W 72-61 82%    
  Feb 10, 2022 63   @ Belmont L 68-76 22%    
  Feb 12, 2022 86   Murray St. L 64-65 46%    
  Feb 16, 2022 345   @ Tennessee Martin W 75-63 86%    
  Feb 19, 2022 307   Southeast Missouri St. W 78-65 88%    
  Feb 24, 2022 341   @ Eastern Illinois W 72-60 85%    
  Feb 26, 2022 328   @ SIU Edwardsville W 72-62 80%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 13 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.2 4.4 5.7 3.0 0.8 15.4 1st
2nd 0.2 1.3 4.7 9.5 8.4 1.6 25.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.6 6.2 11.2 11.5 6.3 1.0 38.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.4 3.7 4.8 2.6 0.5 0.0 13.2 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 1.7 1.6 0.4 0.1 4.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.4 0.1 2.0 6th
7th 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.9 2.3 3.8 7.0 11.6 15.2 16.9 17.0 13.8 7.3 3.0 0.8 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
17-1 100.0% 3.0    2.7 0.3
16-2 78.0% 5.7    3.2 2.3 0.2
15-3 32.1% 4.4    1.4 2.3 0.8
14-4 7.1% 1.2    0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0
13-5 1.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.4% 15.4 8.3 5.7 1.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.8% 60.5% 55.6% 4.9% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 11.1%
17-1 3.0% 43.0% 42.7% 0.3% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.7 0.6%
16-2 7.3% 33.6% 33.4% 0.1% 13.1 0.0 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 4.8 0.2%
15-3 13.8% 25.2% 25.2% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.3 1.3 0.4 0.0 10.3
14-4 17.0% 17.7% 17.7% 13.9 0.2 0.8 1.3 0.7 0.0 14.0
13-5 16.9% 12.8% 12.8% 14.3 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.1 14.8
12-6 15.2% 8.2% 8.2% 14.7 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 13.9
11-7 11.6% 6.7% 6.7% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 10.8
10-8 7.0% 2.9% 2.9% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 6.8
9-9 3.8% 2.4% 2.4% 15.8 0.0 0.1 3.7
8-10 2.3% 2.2% 2.2% 15.6 0.0 0.0 2.2
7-11 0.9% 0.9
6-12 0.3% 0.3
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 15.2% 15.2% 0.1% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.9 4.0 4.9 3.3 0.7 84.8 0.1%